The Z Report

Lance Zierlein: Odds and End$ - I’ve got your props

Lance Zierlein: Odds and End$ - I’ve got your props
Leonard Fournette could be in for a big year. Photo by Elsa/Getty Images

This is the time of year when the fantasy football owners out there are scouring the internet trying to glean as much information as they can about rookies, sleepers, expected targets for receivers, and emerging running backs.

For those who like to play the “game within the game”, this is the time of year they start looking for “futures” and finding the best values on the board. Because I love each and every one of you like you were my seventh or eighth child (I only have five), I’ve decided to give you action junkies my thoughts on some of the prop bets that I see right now. As for your fantasy ballers, I’ll get to you next week.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Derrius Guice (WAS) 10:1  * Update: Suffered torn ACL in 1st preseason game.

Sam Darnold (NYJ) 17:1

Calvin Ridley (ATL) 20:1

Saquon Barkley is the favorite at even money, but what fun is that? Sam Darnold has a good chance to be the man from start to finish with the Jets so 17:1 odds is a great value. Calvin Ridley is getting 23:1 odds which is terrific value considering his ability to hit big plays and his quarterback who can air it out. Derrius Guice is off to a strong start and I like him getting 10:1 better than Barkley at EVEN.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Roquan Smith (CHI) 3.5:1

Tremaine Edmunds (BUF) 9:1

Darius Leonard (IND) 20:1

I’m not going to lie, fading Broncos rookie DE Bradley Chubb at 3:1 won’t be easy, but the 2018 draft was the heavy with LB talent so let’s stick with these three. Roquan Smith is set to have a strong year right out of the gate and getting 3.5:1 is actually decent value. Tremaine Edmunds was as productive as they come in college and he has the athletic ability to translate that production into the pros. Leonard is flying under the radar somewhat, but he’s a great athlete who could end up playing all three downs for the Colts.

Rushing Leader

Leonard Fournette (JAX) 8.5:1

When you consider that Fournette had 268 carries last year, that young RBs are always most likely to get a heavy workload, and that Blake Bortles is the quarterback…. Well, you can see why I see this as such a value ticket.

Most Receiving Yards

Odell Beckham (NYG) 10:1

When he’s healthy (and happy?), Beckham might be the most talented receiver in the game today. Granted, it might not be safe to consider Beckham a happy camper right now, but he seems to believe that his contract will get worked out. If it does, then look out. If it doesn’t, he’s in a contract year and will likely be on his best behavior. Getting 10:1 for a talent like Beckham is great value.

Kirk Cousins OVER 25.5  Pass TDs

Alex Smith UNDER 23.5  Pass TDs

Ezekiel Elliott OVER 12.5 Rush TDs

Leonard Fournette OVER 10.5  Rush TDs

Michael Thomas OVER 7.5  Receiving TDs

Adam Thielen OVER 5.5  Receiving TDs


 

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Is leadership the main problem for Houston? Composite Getty Image.

With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.

While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.

Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.

And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.

The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.

It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.

Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.

The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.

They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.

Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.

Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?

As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.

The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?

Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!

Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.

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