THE Z REPORT
Lance Zierlein: Texans Primer - Secondary moving up and Watson's "tight window throws"
Lance Zierlein
Jul 25, 2018, 11:09 am
The Rockets put together their best win total in team history and had an MVP winner for the first time since 1994. They followed that up with a non-busy free agency period that saw them lose two key wing defenders, re-up with Chris Paul for a four year, max dollar deal, and pursue Carmelo Anthony - yet again.
The Astros and the entire city are still on cloud nine with the organization bringing the city its baseball title and the fellas are in the mix once again. The Rockets and the Astros are having success and occupying the attention of the the city.
But guess what, guys? The Texans are back! The Texans are back! Wait, what? You aren’t as excited as you used to be about this team after watching the team tank in games where Deshaun Watson couldn’t play? You don’t feel the same connection to the defense since J.J. Watt’s consecutive seasons on the sideline due to injury? The departure of Rick Smith has you feeling down? OK, I know that last one isn’t true. Camp is getting started so it’s time for me to serve you some football coffee and wake you up for the Texans season.
How important is DeAndre Hopkins to the success of Deshaun Watson’s success? Maybe more important than you realize. I’m doing some consulting work with Zebra Technology, who handles player tracking on the NFL level. One of the things they can track is “Tight Window Throws” which is defined as a pass attempt with a defender within 1.5 yards of the target.
A total of 34.1% of Watson’s pass attempts were into tight windows, which was a little on the high side. For comparison’s sake, Carson Wentz was at 35.5%, Russell Wilson at 29.4%, Ben Roethlisberger at 26.8%, and Drew Brees at 22.5%. What you start to find is that younger quarterbacks tend to throw into tight windows more often so it is important that they have quality receivers who can make catches in traffic.
Watson actually completed 39.4% of his “tight window throws” which was higher than Roethlisberger 37.1% and Wilson 38.7%. This is where “D-Hop” comes in. Hopkins has good size, long arms, catches the ball away from his body and may have the strongest hands of any receiver in the league. When it comes to ball skills and winning 50/50 throws, he’s the best in the league. Period. Without Hopkins, many of those throws become incompletions.
This isn’t to say that Watson wasn’t spectacular last year, because he was, but Hopkins ability to win in the tight windows meant Watson didn’t have to go through as many of the growing pains as most young quarterbacks go through.
I see holes with this team and I have concerns, but we aren’t going to focus on those ugly comments since this is the beginning of camp. Right now is a time for optimism which is why I’m opening up this Optimism Bubble. You can step inside this bubble (it’s actually just a few paragraphs) and experience safe and happy Texans talk. Today’s topic is the secondary
Sure, the Texans were an atrocity on the back-end last season and many of those same player are back, but third-round safety Justin Reid is much more talented than where he was drafted and has the talent to help the defense as a rookie. Tyrann Mathieu may very well be better off as a ball-hawking safety than a slot corner and that should benefit the Texans. Free agent cornerback Aaron Colvin is an obvious upgrade into the talent pool at the cornerback spot.
I’m not going to try and over-sell you on Jonathan Joseph or Kareem Jackson because I think both vets best days are behind them, but I do believe that their jobs (Kareem’s job is still up in the air in my opinion) will get easier with a healthy pass rush intact for 2018. And Kevin Johnson? He’s not bad, he’s not good, he’s just been blah. However, it wouldn’t be out of the normal career arc for Johnson to have his best season to date.
The secondary is clearly in need of some fresh blood at cornerback, but the addition of Colvin and potential improvement from Kevin Johnson should help that. If the pass rush does their job and Mathieu does what he does best as a ballhawk, there is no reason to believe the Texans secondary won’t go from back to solid or even bad to good. Of course, we are in the Optimism Bubble.
C.J. Stroud faced criticism in Houston's last few games as the Texans hit a rough patch after losing just two of their first eight games.
But the second-year quarterback remained confident and his strong performance last Sunday helped the Texans (8-5) to a 23-20 win over the Jaguars to enter their bye with a two-game lead atop the AFC South.
“When he is leading and playing the way he is playing, our entire team feeds off of him,” coach DeMeco Ryans said. “I am excited for his second year. I think he is showing a ton of growth, he is in a really great spot for us physically, mentally. I really love where he is and I am excited to see how he comes back after the break.”
Stroud threw for 242 yards and a touchdown against Jacksonville to leave him ranked fourth in the NFL with 3,117 yards passing this season. That game came after he threw two interceptions in a 32-27 loss to Tennessee a week before for the team’s third loss in four games.
Those two interceptions brought his season total to nine, which are four more than he threw in 15 games a rookie. But the Texans aren’t worried about that statistic and believe he has grown in his second year.
“He’s made a lot of progress,” general manager Nick Caserio said. “There are some plays, like all of our players, that we probably wish he could have back, but happy he’s our quarterback, happy with what he brings to the table. ... Wouldn’t want anyone else leading this team.”
The Texans are in position to win their division for a second straight season despite dealing with several significant injuries on offense. Running back Joe Mixon missed three games early with an ankle injury and leading receiver Nico Collins was sidelined for five games with a hamstring injury.
They also lost four-time Pro Bowler Stefon Diggs for the season when tore an ACL in Week 8.
Mixon leads the team with 887 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns and has added four touchdown receptions. His work in his first season in Houston after a trade from Cincinnati has helped the team deal with those significant injuries to the receiving corps.
Mixon ranks third in the NFL by averaging 88.7 yards rushing a game and has had at least 100 yards rushing in seven games.
Stroud has continually raved about Mixon’s contributions on and off the field.
“He’s a servant, a helper,” Stroud said. “That’s ultimately what I want to be as well. Who can I serve and how can I help? That’s ultimately what the game of football is.”
While Mixon has been the team’s most important new acquisition on offense, Danielle Hunter has been Houston’s new defensive star. The defensive end spent his first eight seasons in Minnesota before joining the Texans this year.
He has helped Houston lead the NFL with 84 tackles for loss after piling up 15 this season, which is tied for third most in the league. He also leads the Texans with 10½ sacks to help them rank second with 42.
Hunter been a great addition to a team that already had defensive end Will Anderson Jr., last year’s AP Defensive Rookie of the Year. Anderson ranks second to Hunter on the team with 13 tackles for loss and 9½ sacks.
Ryans said this week’s break is much needed for a team that opened the preseason on Aug. 1 in the Hall of Fame game.
“It’s here and we’re going to take advantage of it,” he said. “We’ve been going at it for a long time.”
The Texans need to recharge this week with a brutal stretch of three games in 10 days when they return from their bye. Houston hosts Miami on Dec. 15 before a trip to Kansas City on Dec. 21 and a visit from the Ravens on Christmas Day.
“It’s Christmas and all that, but we can’t worry about that. All we can do is focus on Miami,” Caserio said. “And then when we get through the Miami game, then we kind of turn the page to the next. ... We’re either going to earn it or we’re not. Not to oversimplify it, but that’s the truth.”
The Texans will play those game without starting linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair after he received a three-game suspension for his violent hit to the head of Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, which led to a concussion.
Al-Shaair will be eligible to return for Houston’s regular-season finale against Tennessee.