THE Z REPORT
Lance Zierlein: What would this year's draft look like if the Texans had not traded up for Deshaun Watson in 2017?
Lance Zierlein
Apr 18, 2018, 8:27 am
What if the Texans had not traded up for Deshaun Watson? Tim Warner/Getty Images
Deshaun Watson was electrifying in a very short sample size. Deshaun Watson threw for 19 touchdowns in seven games and 18 in his six starts. The Texans offense never scored less than 33 points in any of Watson’s final five starts before he was felled by a season-ending knee injury. Deshaun Watson’s six game run as a starter was the most productive of any quarterback in the league during that time. Deshaun Watson is our quarterback!
But what if he wasn’t?
What if Rick Smith never pulled the trigger on the trade that sent the Texans 2018 first round draft pick to Cleveland in exchange for the pick that eventually became Deshaun Watson? Let’s roll back the clock and take peek into what might have been if the Texans hadn’t taken Watson and still had a first round pick this year.
The Texans draft a tackle
I poured through my old notes on Texans needs in 2017 and which players were potential fits for them at pick #25. With the right tackle spot in flux and with Duane Brown’s contract an issue, I believe the Texans would have drafted Ryan Ramczyk from the Wisconsin.
Ramczyk could have projected as an early right tackle starter with the potential to move the left tackle. Or, the Texans may have seen him as a future guard if things didn’t work well at tackle. In any case, he would have likely been a starter all season long just as he was for the Saints.
But what would they have done at quarterback? It would have been Tom Savage. Duh. Sure, they may have added another quarterback to complete for the starting position, but I’m sure it wouldn’t have mattered. The defense would have had the same issues, there would have been the same Duane Brown issue and the offensive line wouldn’t have been good enough. In other words, they still would have been drafting about fourth.
The mythical 2018 debates
In this scenario, the Texans would still be in Quarterback Purgatory and this entire draft run-up would have been a sh*t-show of sports talk, message boards and Twitter arguments about this draft pick:.
Trade up: There would be a contingent of Texans fans/media who would have demanded that the Texans do everything in their power to move to the #1 spot and draft Sam Darnold. The Texans don’t have a second round pick so it would have likely cost them next year’s first rounder and maybe one other 3rd round pick.
Best available: While everyone would clearly be in full panic mode regarding the quarterbacks, there would definitely be a group of fans who would argue vehemently that sitting tight and taking Saquon Barkley (if he’s there) would make life so much easier on whoever was at quarterback. If it wasn’t Barkley, fans would also argue that J.J. Watt’s best days may be behind him and taking Bradley Chubb to pair with Mercilus and Clowney means the Texans would potentially rival Jacksonville for most killer defensive front in the league.
To Josh or not to Josh: We all know that UCLA’s Josh Rosen is being hit for lack of coachability and lack of leadership skills. The football talent is clear. If the Texans had the fourth pick of the draft, there is no doubting that. Josh Allen has a monster arm, great size and good mobility, but his college production never matched all that raw talent. There is no doubt in my mind that debating “the Joshes” would be something that would happen on a daily basis with talk show hosts, writers, and social media.
Lamar Jackson hive: The most explosive player in this draft might be Lamar Jackson. In. This. Draft. There is no doubt in my mind that Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson would be the fan’s choice of who the pick should be. However, have you heard Lamar Jackson mentioned at #4 or anywhere inside the top ten for that matter? No. There are some viable reasons involving accuracy and concerns over his size considering how often he runs. I still believe that wouldn’t change the argument points regarding doing whatever the Texans had to in order to get Lamar Jackson.
Free agency run: The Texans obviously could have been in the running for Kirk Cousins. Could they have made a run at trading for Nick Foles? Absolutely.
When it is all said and done, the draft would look like:
Cleveland: Sam Darnold
NY Giants: Bradley Chub
NY Jets: Baker Mayfield
Houston: Josh Allen
Josh Allen or Deshaun Watson, Houston? Who ya got?
What looked like a minor blip after an emotional series win in Los Angeles has turned into something more concerning for the Houston Astros.
Swept at home by a Guardians team that came in riding a 10-game losing streak, the Astros were left looking exposed. Not exhausted, as injuries, underperformance, and questionable decision-making converged to hand Houston one of its most frustrating series losses of the year.
Depth finally runs dry
It would be easy to point to a “Dodger hangover” as the culprit, the emotional peak of an 18-1 win at Chavez Ravine followed by a mental lull. But that’s not the story here.
Houston’s energy was still evident, especially in the first two games of the series, where the offense scored five or more runs each time. Including those, the Astros had reached that mark in eight of their last 10 games heading into Wednesday’s finale.
But scoring isn’t everything, not when a lineup held together by duct tape and desperation is missing Christian Walker and Jake Meyers and getting critical at-bats from Cooper Hummel, Zack Short, and other journeymen.
The lack of depth finally showed. The Astros, for three days, looked more like a Triple-A squad with Jose Altuve and a couple big-league regulars sprinkled in.
Cracks in the pitching core
And the thing that had been keeping this team afloat, elite pitching, finally buckled.
Hunter Brown and Josh Hader, both dominant all season, finally cracked. Brown gave up six runs in six innings, raising his pristine 1.82 ERA to 2.21. Hader wasn’t spared either, coughing up a game-losing grand slam in extra innings that inflated his ERA from 1.80 to 2.38 in one night.
But the struggles weren’t isolated. Bennett Sousa, Kaleb Ort, and Steven Okert each gave up runs at critical moments. The bullpen’s collective fade could not have come at a worse time for a team already walking a tightrope.
Injury handling under fire
Houston’s injury management is also drawing heat, and rightfully so. Jake Meyers, who had been nursing a calf strain, started Wednesday’s finale. He didn’t even make it through one pitch before aggravating the injury and needing to be helped off the field.
No imaging before playing him. No cautionary rest despite the All-Star break looming. Just a rushed return in a banged-up lineup, and it backfired immediately.
Second-guessing has turned to outright criticism of the Astros’ medical staff, as fans and analysts alike wonder whether these mounting injuries are being made worse by how the club is handling them.
Pressure mounts on Dana Brown
All eyes now turn to Astros GM Dana Brown. The Astros are limping into the break with no clear reinforcements on the immediate horizon. Only Chas McCormick is currently rehabbing in Sugar Land. Everyone else? Still sidelined.
Brown will need to act — and soon.
At a minimum, calling up top prospect Brice Matthews makes sense. He’s been mashing in Triple-A (.283/.400/.476, 10 HR, .876 OPS) and could play second base while Jose Altuve shifts to left field more regularly. With Mauricio Dubón stretched thin between shortstop and center, injecting Matthews’ upside into the infield is a logical step.
*Editor's note: The Astros must be listening, Matthews was called up Thursday afternoon!
The Astros are calling up Brice Matthews, their top prospect on @MLBPipeline
via @brianmctaggart pic.twitter.com/K91cGKkcx6
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) July 10, 2025
There’s also trade chatter, most notably about Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins, but excitement has been tepid. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but compared to who the Astros are fielding now, Mullins would be a clear upgrade and a much-needed big-league presence.
A final test before the break
Before the All-Star reset, Houston gets one last chance to stabilize the ship, and it comes in the form of a rivalry series against the Texas Rangers. The Astros will send their top trio — Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, and Hunter Brown — to the mound for a three-game set that will test their resolve, their health, and perhaps their postseason aspirations.
The Silver Boot is up for grabs. So is momentum. And maybe, clarity on just how far this version of the Astros can go.
There's so much more to discuss! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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