FALCON POINTS

Let's discuss if this is the right time to pay Deshaun Watson

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The Texans are reportedly working on an extension for quarterback Deshaun Watson, one that is surely to make him one of the highest paid players in the league.

Watson is clearly the face of the franchise (well, when Bill O'Brien isn't forcing himself out front) and a player the Texans should lock up. However, is now the right time?

Watson is scheduled to make $4.4 million in 2020, less than kicker Ka'imi Fairbairn. He would make just over $17 million in the final year of his deal in 2021, and the Texans could conceivably franchise him for another year. While Watson deserves to get paid, perhaps it should happen after the 2020 season, not before.

Houston is almost in the same boat as Dallas, which is trying to lock up Dak Prescott long-term. Prescott has been tagged for just over $31 million in 2020. The Cowboys Stephen Jones is aware of what paying big money means.

"There's all sorts of analytics out there that show if your quarterback takes up too big a percentage of your salary cap, that it decreases your chances to win," Jones said.

While there are some that would dispute that, the concern is real. Tie up too much of your cap, and there is not enough money to place talent around your quarterback. You could argue the Cowboys have better pieces around Prescott than the Texans do Watson.

In both cases, the players deserve their money. But with Watson, waiting might make more sense. The big concern is how much the salary cap world will change in the Ronaverse. If you lock up Watson now at 2019 money, the possibilities of it taking up a massive amount of cap space increase. While many speculate the cap will still go up due to TV dollars even if massive revenue is lost due to lack of fans, hoping that happens is foolish. TV dollars are based on the potential for ad sales. Is it a guarantee that money will be there in the future?

Pre-Rona, yes, you lock up Watson at whatever the cost. But with the future uncertain for both sports and the economy, would waiting a year really be a bad idea? Sure, Watson could increase his value, but by how much? A few million a year? If he does that, you don't mind paying. It means you probably made a Super Bowl, although that seems unlikely considering the limitations of his coaching staff.

But if the cap drops drastically, it would deflate the market. Watson would still get paid big money, but at a more realistic rate. The Texans would have no problem shedding cap in 2021 to give him a big raise then. Theoretically, they could do that now, certainly, and still be able to field a competitive team. There are always ways to stay under the cap, even if it plummets dramatically in 2021. But with an uncertain future for both sports and the economy, is this really the time?

Waiting a year might be the prudent move. Let's see if the Texans actually do it.

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Can top prospect Brice Matthews give Houston a boost? Composite Getty Image.

What looked like a minor blip after an emotional series win in Los Angeles has turned into something more concerning for the Houston Astros.

Swept at home by a Guardians team that came in riding a 10-game losing streak, the Astros were left looking exposed. Not exhausted, as injuries, underperformance, and questionable decision-making converged to hand Houston one of its most frustrating series losses of the year.

 

Depth finally runs dry

 

It would be easy to point to a “Dodger hangover” as the culprit, the emotional peak of an 18-1 win at Chavez Ravine followed by a mental lull. But that’s not the story here.

Houston’s energy was still evident, especially in the first two games of the series, where the offense scored five or more runs each time. Including those, the Astros had reached that mark in eight of their last 10 games heading into Wednesday’s finale.

But scoring isn’t everything, not when a lineup held together by duct tape and desperation is missing Christian Walker and Jake Meyers and getting critical at-bats from Cooper Hummel, Zack Short, and other journeymen.

The lack of depth finally showed. The Astros, for three days, looked more like a Triple-A squad with Jose Altuve and a couple big-league regulars sprinkled in.

 

Cracks in the pitching core

 

And the thing that had been keeping this team afloat, elite pitching, finally buckled.

Hunter Brown and Josh Hader, both dominant all season, finally cracked. Brown gave up six runs in six innings, raising his pristine 1.82 ERA to 2.21. Hader wasn’t spared either, coughing up a game-losing grand slam in extra innings that inflated his ERA from 1.80 to 2.38 in one night.

But the struggles weren’t isolated. Bennett Sousa, Kaleb Ort, and Steven Okert each gave up runs at critical moments. The bullpen’s collective fade could not have come at a worse time for a team already walking a tightrope.

 

Injury handling under fire

 

Houston’s injury management is also drawing heat, and rightfully so. Jake Meyers, who had been nursing a calf strain, started Wednesday’s finale. He didn’t even make it through one pitch before aggravating the injury and needing to be helped off the field.

No imaging before playing him. No cautionary rest despite the All-Star break looming. Just a rushed return in a banged-up lineup, and it backfired immediately.

Second-guessing has turned to outright criticism of the Astros’ medical staff, as fans and analysts alike wonder whether these mounting injuries are being made worse by how the club is handling them.

 

Pressure mounts on Dana Brown

 

All eyes now turn to Astros GM Dana Brown. The Astros are limping into the break with no clear reinforcements on the immediate horizon. Only Chas McCormick is currently rehabbing in Sugar Land. Everyone else? Still sidelined.

Brown will need to act — and soon.

At a minimum, calling up top prospect Brice Matthews makes sense. He’s been mashing in Triple-A (.283/.400/.476, 10 HR, .876 OPS) and could play second base while Jose Altuve shifts to left field more regularly. With Mauricio Dubón stretched thin between shortstop and center, injecting Matthews’ upside into the infield is a logical step.

*Editor's note: The Astros must be listening, Matthews was called up Thursday afternoon!

 

There’s also trade chatter, most notably about Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins, but excitement has been tepid. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but compared to who the Astros are fielding now, Mullins would be a clear upgrade and a much-needed big-league presence.

 

A final test before the break

 

Before the All-Star reset, Houston gets one last chance to stabilize the ship, and it comes in the form of a rivalry series against the Texas Rangers. The Astros will send their top trio — Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, and Hunter Brown — to the mound for a three-game set that will test their resolve, their health, and perhaps their postseason aspirations.

The Silver Boot is up for grabs. So is momentum. And maybe, clarity on just how far this version of the Astros can go.

There's so much more to discuss! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!

The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.

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*ChatGPT assisted.

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