THE LEFT TURN
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Look for Kyle Busch to be the car to beat. Photo via: Wiki Commons.
It's an elimination race this week at Bristol Motor Speedway. This is the last chance for the last four drivers in points to try and survive and advance to the next round. This is one of the most challenging and unforgiving racetracks in the sport. It has been a whole year since they raced on pavement and if we see what we have seen with the truck series, the surface should be fairly slippery and difficult to find grip. With all that is on the line, there's sure to be plenty of drama all throughout the race. One of the things to look out for in this race is how the leader deals with traffic. With this track being as short as it is, the laps will fly by quickly and the leaders will catch the tail end of the field and with a lot of these guys not wanting to go a lap down, this can be a big headache. We saw it two seasons ago when Matt DiBenedetto appeared to have the race in hand until making contact with the lap car of Ryan Newman, and it cost him the victory. In the end, the driver who is the most patient getting through the field will have the best chance.
Last week, Martin Truex Jr punched his ticket to the Round of 12 after fending off a late-race charge from his teammate Denny Hamlin. It was a race that was dominated by strategy and the Joe Gibbs Toyota's as they swept the top three with Christopher Bell coming home in third.
Most of the top 12 were able to stay out of trouble, with the exception of Kurt Busch. When the green flag dropped, everything looked promising for the 2004 champion until he crashed out on lap 42. Because of his misfortune, he dropped from fourth place in points all the way to 12th in a tie with Alex Bowman. Another playoff driver that struggled to get anything going last week was William Byron. After crashing at Darlington, he truly needed a big race to get back into the hunt but when they got to Richmond, the car just didn't have any speed. Going into this week, Byron is 18 points out. He will need to gain points in both stages to make up ground in the playoffs.
As I mentioned, there will be four drivers that are on the outside looking in, but let's not forget about the drivers above the cutline who are in just as much danger. Because of the high attrition at Darlington, the gap between 12th and 8th is very slim. One of the drivers in a tough position is Kyle Busch. After his inexcusable mishap at Darlington, he was able to rebound quite nicely at Richmond with a ninth-place finish. This team is still going to need a lot of things to fall into place at Bristol to make the next round. When you look at the four drivers below the cutline, the two drivers that are in the win-now territory are Michael McDowell and William Byron. Both drivers sit 38 and 18 points out of the top 12 and while it is not mathematically impossible for them to point their way into the next round, they need two perfect stages to get in. Look for a Hail Mary from them.
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the massive storylines off the track this week. On Wednesday, the 2022 NASCAR schedule was released. While a lot of things remained the same, there were three major differences from this season compared to the next season. Next season, to kick off the year, NASCAR will hold an exhibition race inside the LA Coliseum. This was met with the familiar polarity we see amongst the fan base, there were some that believed it was a neat concept and some that didn't. In my personal opinion, I have to say that this has the potential to really be special. This brings NASCAR to a newer audience and with the race being a week before the Super Bowl, there is so much room for positive growth. On the flip side, this will make things much more difficult logistically for the road crew in getting back to Daytona. Regardless, racing in football stadiums could be a trend we see in the future.
Before NASCAR goes to the Coliseum in LA, we still have a race in the Coliseum in Bristol to think about, and the driver that I have winning this week is Kyle Busch. As I mentioned earlier, arguably NASCAR's greatest talent of the 21st century is coming into this week with little room for mistakes but on the bright side, this is by far his best racetrack as he's won there eight times. Rowdy can get around this track better than anyone, as he has led over 2,000 laps here in his career. He will roll off ninth when the green flag drops, but don't expect him to stay there long. Look for Kyle to be the car to beat come Saturday as he looks to complete the Joe Gibbs Racing sweep of the opening round of the playoffs.
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If you are a believer in the third time is a charm, go ahead and book the Texans for their first ever appearance in the AFC Championship game! Saturday is the Texans’ third crack at the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs. Of course, the Texans had a third time is the charm opportunity at advancing beyond the division round back in 2016 and came nowhere close. Charm will have nothing to do with the outcome at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Chiefs have administered the Texans’ two most humiliating postseason defeats in franchise history. They came as the bookend postseason appearances of Bill O’Brien’s tenure as head coach. In 2015, the Texans won the worst division in the AFC (that sounds familiar) but as a division champ got to play host to the Wild Card 11-5 Chiefs. The visitors were three-point favorites. They won by 30. 30-0 to be more precise. Knile Davis returned the opening kickoff 106 yards for a touchdown. It would have been in the Texans’ best interest to have forfeited right then and there. In what was not exactly a shocking development, Texans’ quarterback Brian Hoyer wasn’t up to the task, throwing for just 112 yards and four interceptions. On the Chiefs’ side third-year tight end Travis Kelce had eight receptions for 128 yards. Taylor Swift was not in attendance.
The second Texans-Chiefs playoff get together is the most incredible game in Texans’ history. The Texans showed up in Missouri fresh off the greatest comeback win in their history, having come from down 16-0 in the third quarter to best the Buffalo Bills in overtime. In what could safely be characterized as stunning, the Texans put up three first quarter touchdowns for a 21-0 lead. *Massive bonus points if you can name the three Texans who scored those TDs, answer below. A field goal made it 24-0 Texans with 10:54 left in the second quarter. In a collapse tough to pull off, the Texans would trail before halftime. The Chiefs scored four touchdowns in nine minutes and eleven seconds of game time, with that Kelce fellow scoring the last three of them. Some will recall O’Brien calling a fake punt from his own 31-yard line with the Texans up 24-7. Too soon? Justin Reid (now pursuing his third Super Bowl ring in three seasons as a Chief) was stopped short. An even more damning O’Brien moment came later in that game when he actually had to use a timeout to change his mind and go for it with 11:49 left in the fourth quarter, the Texans down 48-31, and facing fourth and four at the K.C. 42. That was a fire-able on the spot offense! Instead it took an 0-4 start to the 2020 season for O’Brien to be ousted. 51-31 Chiefs was the final score, and they went on to win the first of their three Super Bowl titles in the ongoing Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes era.
Back to the present
Those routs were then, this is now. For a 15-2 team the Chiefs seem vulnerable. Maximum credit to them for having won an NFL record 16 consecutive games decided by eight or fewer points, 11 of them this season including their 27-19 victory over the Texans December 21. Perhaps the two-time defending champions were often bored with the regular season and often did just enough to win. The Texans would have been tied with them late in the third quarter had Ka’imi Fairbairn not botched an extra point. On the other hand, it was the play that got them within 17-16 which resulted in Tank Dell’s catastrophic season-ending knee injury. Who besides Nico Collins will do something in the passing game Saturday? Last Saturday the Texans’ pass rush harassed and flustered Chargers’ quarterback Justin Herbert. Mahomes is a different breed. Four weeks ago the Texans sacked Mahomes just once and did not intercept him. That seemingly must change for the Texans to pull off what be a shocker for most people. Saturday’s high temperature forecast for Kansas City is 25 degrees. Not ideal for the Texans but better than if the game had been scheduled for Sunday when the high is supposed to be 16.
Still standing
Four Texans who dressed for the debacle five years ago will suit up against the Chiefs Saturday: Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard who were in their first season with the team, Fairbairn, and long snapper Jon Weeks. Granted he’s just a long snapper (important role but not physically taxing), but Weeks is in his 15th season with the Texans and has yet to miss a game-244 regular season games (with Saturday his 14th playoff game, also without a miss). Presuming he is back next season, Weeks (who turns 39 next month) can crack the top five list of most consecutive games played in NFL history by answering the bell in the first 12 regular season games.
*The Texans’ three early TDS in the 51-31 loss at KC: 1. Kenny Stills with a 54-yard reception 2. Lonnie Johnson with a 10-yard return of a blocked punt 3. Darren Fells with a four-yard grab
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!