Watch for Chase Elliott this weekend! Photo via: Wiki Commons.
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Thunder Valley for the Food City Dirt Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. Because of the special circumstances of this race, the format will be much different from what we are accustomed to seeing on a typical race weekend. Instead of qualifying, there will be four heat races that determine the starting grid for the main event on Saturday night. There will also be points awarded to the top ten. The drivers that improved their positions will also be awarded passing points as well. The driver with the most passing points will start from the pole. The race on Saturday will be broken up into three stages and there will be no live pit stops during the race. This will certainly be an interesting race as the cars will have plenty of new modifications, including mud flaps. It should be interesting to see how this race differs from last year’s.
Last week, William Byron thoroughly dominated en route to his second victory of 2022. The race was heavily criticized by fans as there wasn’t a whole lot of passing up-front. When the race was over, there were a mere six lead changes. Many even suggested shortening races from 400 miles to 300. This is yet another example of NASCAR fans overreacting to a bad race, as they do each week. It seems like to some of these people that if there isn’t a memorable finish in every race, they want drastic changes to the product, and it’s becoming more and more ridiculous. This is a sport that has undergone many changes over the year trying to cater to this type of fan, and it needs to stop.
Regardless of the criticism, William Byron is becoming more and more of a threat each week as he became the first repeat winner of 2022. He has also finished in the top five in four of the last five races. When Byron first started competing in the Cup Series, he struggled a bit. He would string together good finishes but was not able to capitalize and get his first victory until his third season in 2020. After that, he has consistently been in the top five on a weekly basis and has been able to contend for wins. The biggest factor in his success has to be his crew chief, Rudy Fugle. He has certainly helped when it comes to setting up the racecar and getting the feedback from his driver that is needed. Both have also done a great job at race strategy, as Byron has scored the most stage points of anyone so far. This team will certainly make a deep run when we get closer to the playoffs.
One driver that has been really impressive as of late has been Austin Dillon. After back-to-back crashes at Phoenix and Atlanta, Dillon has really been able to rebound strongly, with two tenth place finishes and a third last week at Martinsville. His team Richard Childress Racing seemed to struggle a bit after Kevin Harvick departed in 2013 for Stewart-Haas Racing. But now it seems like they are finding their way back to being a competitive team again. Both of their drivers are knocking on the door. Look out for both Tyler Reddick and Austin Dillon down the line, they are bound to surprise a few folks.
With all of that being said, the driver that I have winning this weekend is Chase Elliott. Overall, 2022 has been a consistently good season for Chase. He’s the points leader with the third most amount of stage points accumulated and has five top-ten finishes. While his stats at this race last year weren’t overly impressive, he was solid and was able to score a tenth place finish. Another major factor to look out for is the experience he will get in Friday’s truck race, as he will drive the #7 truck for Spire Motorsports. While it may not seem like a lot, of the three drivers that have driven the truck to start the weekend, (Austin Hill, Alex Bowman, and William Byron) two of them have gone on to win in the series they score points in. Having these drivers run this truck has clearly helped them in some way, this is a great sign for Chase. Look for Elliott to pick up his first win of 2022 come Saturday.
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After riding high from a statement sweep of the Dodgers, the Astros limped into the All-Star break, having lost five of their last six games, including two of three to the rival Rangers. They still hold a five-game lead in the American League West, but the momentum they carried into July has cooled considerably.
While it’s tempting to point to the battered lineup as the reason for Houston’s recent struggles, the more pressing issue has been on the mound. For much of the season, elite pitching has masked an offense operating in the league’s bottom third. But during this six-game slide, the script flipped. Over the last seven days, Houston ranks 24th in team ERA at 5.37. The offense hasn’t been great either, 20th in runs, 22nd in OPS, 23rd in batting average, but those numbers aren’t that far off their season-long identity. The difference is that the pitching has stopped bailing them out.
The good news? Help may be (somewhat) on the way.
Astros GM Dana Brown recently provided updates on three key contributors. Shortstop Jeremy Peña isn’t expected back immediately after the break, but Brown said it shouldn’t be long before he returns from a fractured rib. Yordan Alvarez, meanwhile, is progressing well from his hand injury. According to Brown, Alvarez has “absolutely no pain” and will be re-evaluated Thursday. If cleared to swing, the Astros plan to expedite his return. Center fielder Jake Meyers, however, remains at least three weeks away as he recovers from a calf injury.
On the pitching front, expectations for late-season contributions from Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia remain uncertain. Both pitchers have thrown rehab starts recently in the Florida Complex League. Garcia has now been out for over two years following Tommy John surgery. If he’s not able to return this season, serious questions will need to be asked about his long-term outlook. Javier, also rehabbing from Tommy John, may be an option in August, but expectations should be tempered. As Brown himself has admitted, he tends to be optimistic. Fans would be wise to stay grounded.
Another arm to watch is Spencer Arrighetti. With no major injury (thumb) holding him back, Arrighetti may be Houston’s most viable rotation boost in the second half.
Fortunately, the schedule sets up favorably after the break. Over the next seven series, the Astros face four sub-.500 teams. But that doesn’t mean anything is guaranteed, especially if current trends continue.
Lance McCullers remains an enigma. When he’s locked in, he gives Houston a legitimate No. 3-caliber arm. When he’s off, he’s out of the game early and the bullpen pays the price. Manager Joe Espada faces one of his toughest managing challenges every time McCullers takes the hill.
Cam Smith has cooled off at the plate, hitless in his last 11 at-bats. He’s also been bounced all over the batting order. A simple solution? Plant him in the cleanup spot and let him adjust without the added mental shuffle.
And then there’s Josh Hader. The All-Star closer has surrendered home runs in three of his last four outings. If Houston is going to continue winning tight games with a low-margin offense, Hader has to be lights-out. His dominance alongside a top-tier setup man (Bryan Abreu) has been a pillar of the Astros’ success model this season. They need that foundation to hold.
The Astros aren’t panicking — nor should they. But after a hot run turned lukewarm, the margin for error is shrinking. The second half opens with an opportunity to bank wins and regain rhythm. Whether Houston capitalizes depends on health, consistency, and maybe a little creativity from the front office.
There's so much more to discuss! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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