TOURNAMENT TIME

NCAA South Region preview: Arizona might be main threat to dominant Virginia

NCAA South Region preview: Arizona might be main threat to dominant Virginia
A healthy Mo Bamba gives Texas a fighting chance. Chris Covatta/Getty Images

THE TOP 4 SEEDS

Virginia, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Arizona

WHO SHOULD WIN

Virginia

The Cavaliers are the No. 1 team in the country, the No. 1 team in Ken-Pom ratings, and the No. 1 defense in the country by a mile. It is next to impossible to run on them, and this may be the best offensive team Virginia has had in the Tony Bennett era. They lost twice this year, and have only lost once since Dec. 5. They rolled to an ACC title and held three teams under 40 points on the season. The only thing not to like about Virginia is that they got a horrible draw that will match them up against a vastly under-seeded and ultra-talented (albeit distracted) Arizona team unless someone can pull an early upset. 

IF NOT THEM

Arizona

Arizona is an odd case study, as 5 of their 7 losses this year came against non-tournament teams, with an early season loss to Purdue being the only exception. They had massive pre-season expectations that revolve around DeAndre Ayton. The likely first pick in the draft has rounded into a complete monster. He is averaging over 20 points per game to go along with 11.5 rebounds. Allonzo Trier (18.4 PPG) would be the shining star on most teams, but is glad to play second fiddle to the super freshman Ayton. This season has been a whirlwind, with Trier losing games to doping allegations and coach Sean Miller being under investigation for paying Ayton. If they can keep their heads in the game, and not let their defense cost them a close game, the Wildcats are incredibly dangerous. 

PLAYERS TO WATCH

DeAndre Ayton- Arizona

As discussed, Ayton is headed towards the NBA draft lottery, and he has scouts salivating. At 7’1” and 250 lbs, Ayton has drawn comparisons to a young Shaquille O’Neal. He is on a tear right now, averaging 32 points and 16 rebounds in the PAC 12 semi-finals vs. UCLA and finals vs. USC. If Ayton is on his game, and he usually is, Arizona is going to be a tough out, even against the incredible pack-line defense of Virginia.

Kyle Guy- Virginia

Apparently, Kyle Guy was nursing a sprained MCL during the ACC tournament. If you watched him play, and register his first two career dunks, you wouldn’t know it was an issue. At first glance, Guy doesn’t wow you. He is undersized and not particularly athletic. He is an excellent catch and shoot guy, though, and gritty enough to lead the nation’s best team in scoring at 14 PPG. He needs to stay healthy and effective for UVA to reach their potential. 

Mohamed Bamba- Texas

Bamba says he is 100% healthy, and Texas needs that to be the case if they are going to pull an upset against Nevada. Bamba is a double-double machine, and a complete force on the defensive end. On top of his 4 blocks per game, he forces hesitation to go inside against the Horns. As good as Bamba is, someone on Texas will have to hit some shots for us to see more than one Bamba appearance. 

BEST FIRST ROUND MATCHUP

Kentucky vs. Davidson

Here we have two teams who are playing their best basketball of the season. Kentucky is obviously the much more talented team here, but Davidson can shoot. Kentucky has been up and down this season, and when they have been bad it has been because they haven’t been able to defend the 3 (see the Florida blowout where the Gators hit 10 3-pointers). Davidson shoots 40% from deep as a team, and Peyton Aldridge is one of the best players in the Atlantic-10. 

UPSET THREAT

Loyola-Chicago

Loyola-Chicago is 42nd in the KenPom ratings and 24th in adjusted defense. They also happen to have a high-major caliber point guard in Clayton Custer, who will give problems to a switching Miami defense. The Ramblers already have a win over Florida on their resume, and will look to bump Miami en route to a likely matchup with another SEC opponent in Tennessee. 

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Jeremy Peña is having success hitting fourth. Photo by Kevin M. Cox/Getty Images.

The Houston Astros host the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday night looking to keep momentum rolling and hand the Jays their fifth straight loss. First pitch is set for 7:40 p.m. EDT at Daikin Park.

Both teams enter the matchup with nearly identical records—Houston at 12-11, Toronto at 12-12—but they’re trending in opposite directions. The Astros have won six of their last ten and boast an 8-6 record at home, while the Blue Jays have dropped four straight and are just 4-7 on the road.

Ryan Gusto gets the start for Houston, entering with a 2-1 record, a 3.18 ERA, and 17 strikeouts across three appearances. He’ll go up against Bowden Francis, who brings a 3.13 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP into the game, along with 20 strikeouts in his four starts.

Jeremy Peña continues to spark the Astros lineup with three homers and three doubles, while catcher Yainer Diaz has added timely hits despite a recent slump. For Toronto, George Springer leads the team with a .333 average, and Bo Bichette has been steady at the plate, going 14-for-45 over his last 10 games.

The Blue Jays have found success when they out-hit opponents, going 10-3 in those games—but Houston’s pitching staff has held opponents to just a 2.86 ERA over the past 10 outings.

The betting line has Toronto as slight road favorites at -120, with Houston at +100 and the over/under set at 8 runs.

Here's a look at tonight's lineup. Cam Smith gets the night off in right field, with Zach Dezenzo filling in. It appears Dezenzo's thumb is fine after banging it up sliding into second base a couple of night's ago.


Image via: MLB.com/Screenshot.

Jake Myers is also getting the night off as Chas McCormick gets the start in center. And Mauricio Dubon is getting the nod, starting over Brendan Rodgers at second base.

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