NERDS AROUND TOWN

Nerds Around Town: Raptors, Lakers and Heroclix

Jun 17, 2019, 6:21 am

Art by Jesus Rodriguez

Born with a comic book in one hand and a remote control in the other, Cory DLG is the talent of Conroe's very own Nerd Thug Radio and Sports. Check out the podcast replay of the FM radio show at www.nerdthugradio.com!

Hey Nerds!

It's Monday, I'm still here and we have lots to do!

GOOD DEED OF THE DAY

This week we're going to focus on the AICF and Mark Clayton Scholarship Golf Tournament it's a scholarship fund and a golf tournament, which are things that everyone knows and loves. Let's get together, have a good time and help people go to college. #NerdsUnite

THE BIG TRADE

So the LA Lakers finally landed Davis. First congrats to LA for going and being aggressive and getting the guy they targeted this whole time. Secondly, everyone is talking about the great haul New Orleans got, I honestly don't think there's very much value to all of these pieces. Consider New Orleans missed the playoffs this year with AD playing the first two thirds of the season and LA fell out of the playoffs once LeBron wasn't available to carry the team.

Everyone is talking about the haul of players and picks, here's the dirty little secret about NBA draft picks that people don't tell you, there's a rule in the NBA that first rounders can't be traded away every year. So for LA to give New Orleans 3 first rounders will be over six years, going every other year. LA will have their own first rounder next year, and again two years later.

The other thing negotiated were a few swaps, New Orleans can pick which pick they use between theirs and LA's (presumably whichever is lower) . I bet New Orleans picks will be lower by the time those swaps come into play because New Orleans has made one good roster move in four years and that was resigning Davis to a max back then. I honestly think this is a steal for the Lakers.

THE DEATH OF WHATABURGER?

Whataburger sold a controlling interest of itself to a Chicago based firm for an undisclosed amount of money. People are upset and wondering why they sold at all and why not to a Texas based company? There's one simple reason for that, MONEY. You don't start a franchise to make people feel warm and fuzzy and you don't take money for goods and think, yeah I am not in this for a profit. I know it's cute and warm and fuzzy feeling to think that Whataburger is here for Texas and is "one of us" but which of us doesn't dream of cashing out on our hard work?

CONGRATS TORONTO

This one may be a little sports heavy but it's cool right? So a couple of things, first of all, shout out to Toronto Raptors for gambling on themselves and making the moves to get a couple pieces like Gasol and Leonard and going all in this year. The thing people will be talking about for a while though are the terrible injuries that have closed the book on the Golden State Warriors.

The torn Achilles of Kevin Durant won't keep him from opting out, and the blown knee of Klay Thompson won't stop Golden State from offering him the max, which means this time of Curry, Green, Iguodala, Livingston, and Looney will have to begin the process of rebuilding a team that will be relevant but never threatening. With the expected departure of Cousins and Durant and the extended absence of Thompson means by the time this team is ready for another run, Livingston and Iguodala will also likely be gone, this makes the team Curry, Green and Thompson with a new cast of characters and I don't think it will be enough.

NOT THAT YOU ASKED

This Friday, Joey Savage and I are going to get back to our Nerd Thug roots and playing Heroclix at Adventure Begins on 1488, come hang out with us and lets have a grand old time. I really love the game and it's a great fun thing to play, it's like chess with superpowers and who doesn't love superpowers?

I'm going to jump out and wish you guys a great Monday and remind everyone to be kind to each other and try a little harder to have a great day! I'm coming back Tuesday and we'll be bringing more good times your way.

Feel free to check out my digital short story The Wilson House or buy a shirt from Side Hustle Ts where some proceeds help people struggling with cancer or listen to Nerd Thug Radio. Thoughts, complaints, events and comments can be sent to corydlg@gmail.com.

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KYLE TUCKER DEEP DIVE

Here's what the Astros should expect from Kyle Tucker after his breakout season

Tucker looks like the real deal. Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images

Kyle Tucker finally had his breakout season in 2020. The 23-year-old flashed potential to be a legitimate five-tool threat. He slashed .268/.325/.512, swiped eight bags, and played above average defense. Is Tucker's performance sustainable? Not only that, but is there room for growth?

Hard Hit % - 44.5%

Barrel % - 9.1%

K % - 20.2%

BB % - 7.9%
Chase % - 26.2%

The first thing to realize with Kyle Tucker is the small sample size at the MLB level. Despite appearing in three separate seasons, he's played in a total of 108 games, which is obviously quite a bit shy of even one full season. He also has an extremely unique swing that you wouldn't teach to anybody, but it "works" for him. This makes him a tough hitter to judge, as it's uncomfortable judging mechanics that work for him, and it's uncomfortable judging numbers that haven't had time to develop trends.

Hard Hit, Barrel, and Chase numbers are unavailable for the minors, but walk and strikeouts percentages are. This creates the ability to at least look at one trend.

Tucker broke onto the scene in 2018 with a monstrous season for AAA Fresno, the Astros affiliate at the time. In 2018, Tucker slashed .332/.400/.590 with 24 homers and 20 steals. He had an 18.1% K% and a 10.3% BB% that season. In 2019, Tucker struck out a little bit more (21.6%) but also walked a little bit more (11.2%). Tucker's 20.2% K% in 2020 is more in line with his minor league K%, indicating he's adjusted to major league pitching.

Tucker essentially put the pieces of contact ability and quality of contact from his previous MLB stints together in 2020. In 2018, Tucker didn't strike out very much (18.1% K%), but his 3.9% Barrel % didn't strike fear in any opponent.

In 2019, Tucker had a 12.8% Barrel %, and his 92 MPH average exit velocity is the best of his three seasons in MLB, but he struck out 27.8% of the time and walked just 5.6% of the time.

In 2020, there's a marriage between the two. His K% and BB% aren't as good as his 2018 marks, but they're better than his 2019 marks. His exit velocity and Barrel % aren't as good as his 2019 marks, but they're better than his 2018 marks. Tucker became a hitter that was able to do more damage without sacrificing consistency.

Tucker had a xBA of .267, which is right in line with his .268 average. His .459 xSLG lags behind his .512 actual SLG, but it isn't a catastrophic drop. The version of Tucker Astros fans saw is essentially who he is, but how does he improve?

What really unlocked Tucker in 2020 was a change in his setup.

Image via: GraysonSkweres/Twitter/Screenshot

Here he is on August 2nd against the Angels. As you can see, he's standing pretty straight up, and he has a "neutral" stance. Following the game on Aug. 2, Tucker was batting .200/.250/.300 with no homers.

Image via: GraysonSkweres/Twitter/Screenshot

Here's Tucker on August 6th, just a few days later. He's started to close off his stance just a bit, but he's still pretty neutral, and he has a little more forward body lean with his torso. Following the game on Aug. 6, he was batting .214/.267/.357 with a homer.

Image via: GraysonSkweres/Twitter/Screenshot

Now, here's Tucker on August 10th. His stance is considerably closed off, and he's maintaining the forward body lean he adopted on August 6th. Following the game on Aug. 10, Tucker was batting .190/.230/.328. It would be the last time any of those numbers would be that low the rest of the year. He maintained that stance for the rest of the season, and he finished the month of August hitting .272/.333/.588.

The swing change allowed him to be a factor on the outside pitch. Tucker would pull off on his front side, which made it tough for him to keep balls fair on the pull side. He'd often yank inside fastballs into the stands down the right field line. It also made him uncompetitive on outside strikes, as he'd either swing-and-miss, or roll them over into the shift.

After he made the change, Tucker started steering inside pitches fair, and he was able to do something with pitches on the outer third.

The next step is finding a way to continue to diversify his batted ball profile. Tucker's pull percentage in 2020 was 47%. That's a higher pull % than guys like Kyle Schwarber and Matt Olson. It was only 1% lower than Rangers outfielder Joey Gallo.

The one dimensional batted ball profile allows teams to shift Tucker aggressively. Teams shifted Tucker in 74% of his at-bats. His wOBA against the shift is .304. In AB's where teams didn't shift him, Tucker had a .455 wOBA. The shift hurts Tucker more than most as well, because he hits the ball on the ground 39% of the time. Gallo and Olson hit it on the ground 32% and 35% of the time respectively.

Lastly, Tucker's performance on breaking balls leaves a lot to be desired. He crushes fastballs, as he batted .303 with a .574 SLG against fastballs in 2020, with a .292 xBA and .528 xSLG. His .208 AVG and .396 SLG against breaking balls aren't very good, and his .209 xBA and .340 xSLG don't tell a prettier story. His 32% whiff % against breaking balls is nearly double his whiff % on fastballs.

If Tucker can learn to be more competitive against breaking balls and learn to use the whole field, then he'll be a really scary hitter. If he doesn't, teams will be able to gameplan for him, and he'll see streaky production similar to other one dimensional hitters like Matt Carpenter and the aforementioned Gallo and Olson.

While the bat may be streaky, Tucker brings it with the glove and on the bases. He had 5 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) in the outfield in 2020, a 0.6 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating), and he was plus-4 in Outs Above Average. His well above average speed and instincts give him the ability to be a rangy outfielder and dangerous baserunner.

Tucker had a breakout season in 2020, but there's still changes left to be made if he wants to be a breakout star and not a one hit wonder.

This is part four of an offseason series covering the 2020 Houston Astros. Be sure to check out parts 1-3 on SportsMap.

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