Hey Bill, call a timeout perhaps? Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images
Let's start with the obvious: Deshaun Watson did not play well in the Texans 27-20 loss to the Patriots. His accuracy was off, his timing was off, and he completed just half of his passes in 34 attempts for only 176 yards, a touchdown, an interception and a bad fumble on the first play of the game. He stayed in the pocket too long, and rarely used his legs to make plays. Perhaps it was just rust, perhaps the knee injury is still impacting him, but he did not look good.
He also got no help from his coach. Stop us if you have heard this before:
Bill O'Brien once again showed questionable decision making in terms of clock management, play calling and scheme. His game management skills have been below average since Day 1. The season opener showed nothing different.
Most fans were focused on O'Brien failing to call timeout on what may or may not have been a Gronk catch before the half. O'Brien trotted out one of his "It's not my job" quotes. In this case it was “It’s not my job to call a timeout there to make (the officials’) job easier.”
Um, OK Bill. If you say so. But it IS your job to call plays. And you did a bang-up job of that. Commentator Tony Romo did everything but eviscerate O'Brien's playcalling through the game. There were too many instances to list them all. But a series in the third quarter was a microcosm of O'Brien's tenure and showed his lack of playcalling ability and game management skills on two key plays.
With just over nine minutes left in the game, the Texans had a third and five at the New England 17, trailing 24-6. They took a shot at the end zone. Incomplete. They decided to go for it on fourth and five. Questionable, but defendable with the right play call. Instead, another shot at the end zone. Incomplete. In fairness, Ryan Griffin was open, and Watson missed him, as he did receivers throughout the game. Knowing that, however, why call that play? Run a high percentage play designed to get the first down. If you really know what you are doing, run a play on third down that could either convert or make the fourth-down play easier; don't go for the end zone.
It felt like O'Brien just decided in the moment to go for it on fourth, however, and did not think ahead on third down. No surprise there. This has been a staple of the O'Brien era. As has giving up points at the end of the half with questionable -- you guessed it -- play calling and game management.
Hey, sometimes you can be wrong and it works. He also decided to punt down two TDs with just over four minutes left. He got bailed out when the Patriots muffed the punt, leading to the Texans final TD. But it was still a bad decision.
And of course, as is often the case, the Texans' nonchalant approach to the clock late in the game wasted over a minute and gave them no shot at the end. They have no concept of a hurry up offense.
To be fair, they really should not have been in the game at that point, but you have to do everything you can to give yourself a shot once you are in that position. When the margin of error is at its smallest, so is O'Brien.
The reality is the Patriots were the better team throughout. And they will always have a better coach. But O'Brien's approach hurt his team's chances. You would hope in Year 5 we would have seen a change. But how many times have we seen him do these exact same things?
The Texans have enough talent to be competitive in 2018. Watson needs to be better and less stiff. They need to generate more pass rush. Kevin Johnson needs to be left in the locker room for the rest of his life. But the bright side is they were competitive on the road against the best team in the AFC despite not playing very well.
Or, as usual, coaching very well.
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If the Astros were going to win one series and lose the other on their six-game road trip out of the All-Star break, they got it right in taking two out of three games at Seattle then losing two out of three to lousy Oakland. Had they inverted those results, the Astros would not be alone atop the American League West starting this weekend’s series against the Dodgers at Minute Maid Park.
By the schedule the Astros’ sledding now gets tougher. The Dodgers are rolling toward their 11th National League West crown in 12 years, despite their pitching staff having been battered by injuries every bit as much as the Astros’. The Astros will face three rookie starters this weekend. National League Rookie of the Year candidate (non-Paul Skenes division) Gavin Stone goes Friday. Saturday it’s Justin Wrobleski making his fourth big league start, Sunday River Ryan makes his second. 325 million dollar addition Yoshinobu Yamamoto last pitched June 15. Tony Gonsolin is out for the year without throwing a pitch. Clayton Kershaw’s first pitch Thursday marks the first of his season. Tyler Glasnow’s Wednesday return from the Injured List means the Astros won’t face him this weekend.
Aside: Astros’ fan favorite Joe Kelly is back in the Dodgers’ bullpen. He was activated from the IL out of the break, so the opportunity to welcome him back to Minute Maid Park looms!
After the Dodgers, the Pirates hit town with Skenes slated to pitch Monday opposite Jake Bloss. Gulp. Hey, in one game, you never know. Skenes has been the most electric rookie pitcher since Dwight Gooden with the Mets in 1984.
Sleepless in Seattle
The Mariners’ unraveling has reached historic proportions. It’s not easy losing six straight matchups with the lowly Angels but the Mariners were down to the challenge and pulled it off. The M’s have stumble-bummed their way to a 9-20 record over their last 29 games. That’s actually a better winning percentage than the Astros’ had after staggering from the starting gate to a 7-19 mark. Like the Astros did, the Mariners can right their ship, though if they don’t add quality offense before Tuesday’s trade deadline it seems unlikely. Seattle has scored more than two runs in one of its last eight games, the only win among those eight when the Mariners got to Ronel Blanco and Seth Martinez Sunday to avoid an Astros’ sweep. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers whipping up on the laughingstock Chicago White Sox this week has their World Series title defense very much alive and a threat to overtake both the Astros and Mariners.
The trade deadline is this Tuesday
Tick-tock toward Tuesday’s 5PM Central Time trade deadline. General Manager Dana Brown is on the clock. Let’s start with starting pitchers. Tarik Skubal! Garrett Crochet! Jack Flaherty! Any would be a fabulous addition. If Brown acquires one, he will have done phenomenal work cajoling the trade partner into thinking the Astros’ offer the best. Frankly it seems impossible. The Orioles are in the starting pitcher market. Their farm system runs laps around what the Astros have. Numerous other teams on the hunt for pitching have higher rated minor league talent. The Triple-A Sugar Land Space Cowboys are having a fabulous season, but until the Astros Thursday moved up soon to be 24-year-old Jacob Melton (who was batting just .248 with a .307 on-base percentage at Double-A Corpus Christi) there was not one non-pitcher of any consequence younger than 25 on the roster. Pedro Leon, Shay Whitcomb, Will Wagner, and include Joey Loperfido: it would be shocking if any of them can be the best player in an offer good enough to land one of the potential big trade fish. All four of them wouldn’t be enough to land a Skubal or Crochet.
On the hitter side, if the Blue Jays shop Vlad Jr. and/or the Rays take offers for Paredes, of course Brown better try. Either would be a sharp upgrade over Jon Singleton, and Guerrero can’t become a free agent until after next season, with Paredes under team control through 2027. Reality check time. Seattle’s offense is in dire straits. The Mariners have four prospects rated higher than any Astros’ prospect. If the Mariners didn’t make a winning offer over what the Astros proposed, Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto would look like a timid clown.
That said, there will be several second and third tier starters and relievers moved who would boost the Astros. If Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss are both still in the Astros’ starting rotation after the deadline, Dana Brown will have failed. That said, the Astros could well stand pat and win the Mild, Mild West. They could also finish third.
Go for the gold!
With the Olympics underway, a medal podium-style ranking of the Astros’ greatest trade deadline acquisitions:
No medal but cannot be omitted: Randy Johnson. It was a brief fling with “The Big Unit” in 1998 but it was spectacular. It elevated Houston as a baseball city. In 11 regular season starts Johnson went 10-1 with a 1.28 earned run average. He threw shutouts in his first four Astrodome starts. He spiked attendance like no other player in franchise history. Even though the San Diego Padres beat Johnson twice (Johnson pitched fine, the Astros scored two runs total in the two games) and bounced the Astros in a National League Division Series, and prospects Freddy Garcia and Carlos Guillen included in the deal both went on to have excellent careers, it was a trade that in hindsight you make 100 times out of 100.
Bronze: Jeff Bagwell. Reliever Larry Andersen was outstanding in helping the Boston Red Sox win the AL East in 1990, but the BoSox got swept in the ALCS and Andersen left as a free agent. Bagwell has the greatest offensive resume in Astros’ history (I know, I know, postseason aside) and is quite arguably one of the 10 greatest first basemen of all-time.
Silver: Yordan Alvarez. He has longevity to prove but to this point in his career, while not the all-around player Bagwell was, Yordan is clearly the more destructive force in the batter’s box. Throw in his three monstrously significant home runs in the 2022 Astros’ title run, and his awesome 2023 postseason, and what could still lie ahead for him and the Gold could be his if we revisit this topic 10 years from now. Imagine the Dodgers if they hadn’t gifted Yordan to the Astros for Josh Fields.
Gold: Justin Verlander. Astros’ World Series championships pre-JV, zero. With him, two. Even though his World Series resume is terrible. The finishing piece to the Astros’ initial championship winner in 2017 with a 1.06 ERA in five starts ahead of winning the 2017 ALCS MVP, a second crown in 2022, two Cy Young Awards and a Cy runner-up. Interesting decision to make for the cap on his Hall of Fame plaque. Much more body of work with the Tigers but the championships and legend cemented with the Astros.
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.