Keeping the core 4 together is critical
Open letter to Rockets fans: Don't blow it up
Jun 4, 2019, 6:46 am
Keeping the core 4 together is critical
Dear frustrated Rockets fan:
I sit here at the airport coming back from vacation in Orlando, Florida reflecting on my great experience at the Harry Potter Park. A place where kids run around and wave their fake magic wands and everything that they want appears before them at their command. A place where money can buy anything that is available, and you get exactly what you want out of the thing that you buy. Whether it be a wizards robe, the thrill of a roller coaster, or the fantastic taste of butterbeer. I had a great time, even when the Woj bomb dropped on my phone explaining the Rockets possible plan this offseason. Trade Chris Paul? Trade Clint Capela? Possibly trade James Harden? Honestly it didn't surprise me in the slightest when I saw it because failure and disappointment in life consistently bring out two characteristic traits. Overreaction and overthinking. Trust me, I can tell you personally I have experienced both to the max myself recently.
Here is what I will tell you. I am a Wizards fan, a frustrated Wizards fan. And no, I am not trying to make a bad pun by comparing the Wizarding World of Harry Potter to me being a Washington Wizards fan. I actually am a Washington Wizards fan, so allow me to tell you about being a Wizards fan and how it is so similar to being a Rockets fan right now.
I grew up going to Wizards games when Michael Jordan came to DC for the end of his career. My dad split a season ticket package with people because he wanted to see the greatest player ever perform at the end of his career. Right after Jordan left there was a down period for Washington. They were horrible. However they did slowly start to rebuild with the acquisitions of Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler. Believe it or not, this was actually the first "Big 3" that I can remember. I truly believe the Wizards set the model for teams moving forward to have a "Big 3." The Celtics said they had a "Big 3" with Pierce, Allen and Garnett (Rondo always felt slighted). After that, the "Bigger 3" emerged in Miami with LeBron, Wade, and Bosh. Nowadays every team strives to have a "Big 3." Golden State has "The Biggest 3" with Curry, Klay and Durant. Draymond is a fantastic role player, just like Rondo was for the Celtics.
The Wizards Big 3 could not get through LeBron. EVER. It was SO FRUSTRATING. 2004 - Swept by the Heat. 2005 - Loss in 6 to the Cavs. 2006 - Swept by the Cavs. 2007 - Loss in 6 to the Cavs. Four awful years of losing to LeBron in the playoffs. Wizards fans kept saying the same phrases over and over again. "This isn't fair." "Fire the General Manager." "Fire the coach." "We have to blow it up." "When will LeBron leave the East?" "We're just not good enough." After year two of losing to LeBron I was reciting these phrases along with every other Wizards fan. It just was not working because every year this dooming sense of a loss to LeBron was imminent.
Eventually the Wizards blew it all up after 2007, and then you know what happened? Five straight years of not making the playoffs. Five awful years which in today's NBA are known as "The Process." Those years were the worst because you accelerate slowly into the unknown. Do I trust the coach? Not really. Do I trust the general manager? Nope. "The Process" years are sports purgatory where you just don't know what the other side is going to look like. Sometimes, it will end up like the the 76ers, where you will get a team that kind of works but still isn't quite there. Other times, you will end up like the Wizards did again: mismanaged, mis-coached, and floating in mediocrity. Rarely does it work with a total rebuild. What DOES work is adding on or improving a good team. Just look at the Toronto Raptors this year and the Warriors last year. The two teams in the finals this season.
Why do I tell this Wizards story? Because completely rebuilding the Rockets would be a BIG MISTAKE.
What makes a successful team? Let's look at the Warriors as our model: A stable front office, quality drafting, and proper free agent acquisitions. You hate the Warriors because they win, and because of that you would like to say "It isn't fun watching them". "It's boring, I'm done with this dynasty". "This is bad for basketball." I disagree, I actually think this team is extremely fun to watch, and I can't wait to tell my son that I was alive to watch the greatest basketball team ever. They built through the draft and took advantage of other teams failing in the draft for them to rise to success.
However like every "super-team" they will go away. Super-teams are like Houston thunderstorms in the summer: They are intense, but they are quick. Eventually this will pass, and it might pass this summer when Durant goes to New York. So lets REALLY look at the Rockets, while keeping in mind the fundamental principles for a successful team.
This was a tremendous front office move that should not be erased. There are guards in this league that will never win a title and deservedly never win a title. Russell Westbrook is Exhibit A because we have seen a pattern of failing behavior from him. End of games, driving the lane going 200 miles an hour and not giving the ball to a SHOOTER. It doomed the Thunder this year and it will continue to be their downfall because Westbrook's decision making continues to be questionable. Harden is different. When I first moved to Houston and went to see the Rockets live for the first time, I knew he was a dynamic playmaker. What I did not know is that he seemed to have the vision and accuracy of a dynamic point guard. I thought he looked like Steve Nash the first time I saw him play, he had 15 assists. It blew me away. More importantly, Harden is actually a pioneer for a skill in the game of basketball - How to draw a foul on a three point shot. It was never even thought about or attempted by anybody in basketball history to try and perfect that skill and James has done it. You don't get rid of pioneers or transcendent talents. You figure out a way to make it work with them because they are VALUABLE. In this case, MOST VALUABLE. Harden has struggled in the playoffs because he is a pioneer and referees want to fundamentally referee his game differently in the playoffs. This year in particular, the stamina bug hit him again because of all the injuries early on in the season. Getting rid of James is not an option because he is EVERYTHING you want in your super star. It is more about the pieces around James, which leads me to.....
Jordan had Pippen. Steph has Klay / Durant. LeBron had Wade. The list goes on and on.. You need a quality 1B or 2A to your superstar leading act. Paul is 2A. What he brings to this team is organization, intensity on the defensive side, and the mid range jump shot. All three of those things are vital to a championship team, and I don't see his skills declining at a rapid rate. If you asked me who would I rather have on the Rockets, Chris Paul or Russell Westbrook right now, I would take Paul. He knows his role, he will defer to Harden without argument, and he will be stingy defensively while directing traffic offensively. However him bringing a mid range game is his most important asset. My biggest criticism of the Rockets is that they are too much of a one trick pony. They think way too often "Why step in for a higher percentage shot when we can attempt our 38th three pointer of the game?" Chris Paul brings them back to reality with his decision making because I always see him go for the higher percentage basket, whether it's an open jump shot or an alley-oop pass to Cappella. Getting rid of Paul would be a massive mistake and overreaction. Without his injury two years ago, THEY MAKE THE FINALS. It stinks that it happened, but you should not re-invent the wheel because of it.
Let's start with Gordon. In today's NBA, you need three point shooters. We know this, and Gordon provides that for the Rockets. He is the centerpiece role player on this team, and his play is super important especially in the playoffs. We have seen over and over again, the Rockets playoff success rides on him knocking down open jump shots which come often due to the attention required by defenses on Harden. Many teams will look at their role players and say "he is a poor man's Eric Gordon." When that happens, you do not give up THE Eric Gordon. Capela is more interesting to me because his game has got to develop. Most players come into the league and excel in certain areas but lack in others. Capela when healthy is an A player in the half court game. He is tremendous in the pick and roll and a fantastic offensive rebounder while defending the rim well. His problem is against the Warriors, which obviously is horrible because that's the hump Houston cannot get over. I truly believe he needs to develop a mid range jump shot. Ben Simmons needs to as well. If you look at the recent history of basketball, necessary skills have been developed by big men over time. Chris Bosh was called upon to shoot three pointers for the Heat to make more room for LeBron and Wade around the rim back in the day where Miami was winning. Brook Lopez this season made more three pointers this year than Kobe Bryant did at any point in an individual season in his career. I'm not saying Capela needs the three ball like those guys, but players can adapt and change their style. Clint needs to do this and is still young enough where he can do it, so he can work against the Warriors. You do not trade him for subpar value.
Those four core players should be untouchable with Kevin Durant out the door in Golden State most likely at the end of the year. You can advance out of the West with those four players, I truly believe that.If you are not in that camp, I want to go back to speaking to you as a Wizards fan again.
Even though Washington was knocked out by LeBron four straight years in the playoffs, I wouldn't trade those fan experiences for bad years. I went to some of those playoff games and the building was electric. Riding the subway down to the stadium, up the escalator past the trombone's playing on the corner while you approach the building. Scalpers yelling out prices for tickets as you stand in line with every other anxious fan wondering "Will we win this game and put ourselves in good position to win the series?" "Can we finally get past LeBron?" It never happened, and it was disappointment over and over again, but I'm glad the Wizards did not "blow it up" prematurely. I got four great years as a fan before the five horrible years of rebuilding. If you think the Rockets choosing to rebuild is like waving a magic wand and every decision they make will be a good one, you are probably mistaken. Magic isn't real. What is real is the cornerstone of this team and I believe in them moving forward.
So what is the Rockets priority this offseason? Get a defensive stopper. To me, having a Tony Allen or Trevor Ariza type player is extremely important against the Warriors. That player, when on the floor, is responsible for using his energy on stopping the other team's best player. It is not really relevant what they do offensively, because on that side of the floor they should just participate in ball movement. Defense is the reason the Rockets almost beat the Warriors two years ago. Everybody criticizes Ariza for game 7 because he struggled shooting so much, however I say, why was he shooting so much? He was chasing Durant around, that takes so much energy and he should never have been given double digit shot attempts from three. Having a defensive stopper is the equivalent of having a left handed specialist in baseball. You have one job.
I look at the Rockets just like I look at the Bucks. Both teams have game-changing superstars. Just because a loss happens (even if it's happened over and over again) you do not erase the progress you've made. Keep plugging along and adding to what you have, and eventually the puzzle will be complete and a trophy will be won. Overreaction and overthinking does nothing but keep you looking at the past when it's most important to let go of the past and keep plugging along. Keep plugging, Rockets.
Miami (6-7) at Houston (8-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST, CBS
BetMGM Odds: Texans by 3.
Against the spread: Dolphins 5-8; Texans 5-6-2.
Series record: Texans lead 8-3.
Last meeting: Dolphins beat Texans 30-15, on Nov. 27, 2022, in Miami.
Last week: Dolphins beat Jets 32-26 in OT; Texans were off, beat Jaguars 23-20 on Dec. 1.
Dolphins offense: overall (19), rush (24), pass (14), scoring (23).
Dolphins defense: overall (9), rush (7), pass (11), scoring (T14).
Texans offense: overall (18), rush (16), pass (17), scoring (11).
Texans defense: overall (5), rush (10), pass (7), scoring (T12).
Turnover differential: Dolphins minus-2; Texans plus-10.
QB Tua Tagovailoa, who has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL at throwing with anticipation and accuracy since he returned from a concussion in Week 8. Tagovailoa leads the NFL with a 73.8% completion rate and threw for 300 yards for the third straight game last week vs. the Jets. Tagovailoa is the first player in NFL history to have at least 40 pass attempts, multiple touchdown passes and no interceptions in three consecutive games within a single season.
QB C.J. Stroud has thrown for at least 225 yards in each of his six home games this season and is 11-4 in 15 starts in Houston, including the playoffs. He has thrown for 3,117 yards with 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions this season.
Houston RB Joe Mixon vs. Miami’s run defense. Mixon ran for 101 yards in Houston’s previous game for his seventh 100-yard game this season. He ranks third in the NFL by averaging 88.7 yards rushing a game. This week he’ll face a run defense that ranks seventh in the NFL by holding teams to 105.6 yards a game.
Miami LT Terron Armstead is dealing with a knee injury that limited him to just five snaps last week. He did not practice Wednesday… LBs Bradley Chubb (knee) and Cameron Goode (knee) could make their season debut, depending on how this week of practice goes, coach Mike McDaniel said. … WRs Tyreek Hill (wrist) and Jaylen Waddle (hamstring), RB Raheem Mostert (hip), and LB Anthony Walker Jr. (hamstring) were among those limited in practice Wednesday. … Houston S Jalen Pitre is expected to miss a second straight game with a shoulder injury. … DE Denico Autry was limited in practice Wednesday because of a knee injury.
Houston won the first seven meetings in this series. … Miami didn’t get its first win against the Texans until a 44-26 victory in 2015. … The Dolphins have won the past two meetings. … These teams first met in the season opener in 2003 when Houston got a 21-20 win on a late field goal.
Three of Miami’s final four games of the season are on the road. … K Jason Sanders needs 13 points Sunday to reach 800. He also needs one field goal to reach 177, which would give him the second-most field goals made in franchise history. … TE Jonnu Smith needs 100 yards receiving to reach 792 and set a franchise record for most yards receiving by a tight end in a single season. Smith had three catches for 44 yards, including the game-winning TD vs. the Jets last week after having no receptions during regulation. … Tagovailoa needs a completion rate of 70% or better on Sunday to reach eight consecutive games completing at least 70% of his passes. That would tie him with Joe Montana (1989) and Drew Brees (2017-18) for the longest streak in NFL history. … The Dolphins gave up a season-high 402 yards to the Jets last week. Aaron Rodgers burned Miami’s pass defense for 319 yards, and Miami’s secondary allowed a combined 223 yards by Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. … Houston can clinch the AFC South title for the second straight year with a win and a loss by Indianapolis Sunday. … The Texans rank second in the NFL with 84 tackles for loss. … Their 42 sacks also rank second. … WR Nico Collins had eight receptions for 119 yards for his fourth 100-yard game this season in Houston’s previous game. He has had at least 75 yards receiving and a TD reception in each of his four home games this season. … TE Dalton Schultz had five receptions for 61 yards and a score in Week 13. He has had at least five catches in two of his past three games. … LB Azeez Al-Shaai will serve the first game of a three-game suspension for an illegal hit to the head of QB Trevor Lawrence Sunday. … DE Danielle Hunter is one of two players in the NFL this season with at least 15 tackles for loss (15) and 10 sacks (10 1/2). It’s his sixth career season with at least 10 sacks. He has eight tackles for loss and five sacks combined in his past three games. … DE Will Anderson has had a sack in his past two home games. … LB Henry To’oTo’o has had at least five tackles in four straight games. … CB Derek Stingley had his third interception of the season in his previous game. … CB Kamari Lassiter had a career-high eight tackles, including a tackle for loss in Week 13. … S Jimmie Ward has had an interception in his past two home games. He also had an interception in his previous game against Miami in 2022 while with San Francisco.
Collins has 456 yards receiving and four touchdown receptions in four home games this season.