A big deal
Patrick Creighton: Luhnow does it again as Cole trade = Grand Theft Astros
Patrick Creighton
Jan 13, 2018, 8:18 pm
Jeff Luhnow and the Astros pulled off a steal in the Gerrit Cole trade. LA TImes
“In Luhnow We Trust.”
It’s fair to say that with full confidence the way Patriots fans say it about Bill Belichick. In his six-plus years as Astros GM, Jeff Luhnow rebuilt the farm system into one of baseball’s best, constructed a powerhouse MLB team that led the majors in runs scored and won the first World Series in franchise history.
After pulling off the biggest deadline deal of the 2017 season .landing future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander after months of patiently waiting out the market (early in the season teams were demanding packages centered around 3B Alex Bregman, whom Luhnow refused to deal), Luhnow has struck again.
The Astros already have the best lineup in baseball. They may now have the best rotation as well.
Luhnow swung a deal Saturday for Pirates ace Gerrit Cole, a top young pitcher who is only is only 27 years old and under team control while being arbitration eligible in 2019. Cole just agreed Friday to a one year, $6.75M deal to avoid arbitration, an incredibly low number for a pitcher of Cole’s caliber.
In exchange for their new star pitcher, Luhnow managed to deal zero of his top prospects.
You read that right, zero.
Luhnow traded 3B Colin Moran, RP Joe Musgrove, RP Michael Feliz and OF Jason Martin to acquire Cole, a 2015 All Star with a career record of 59-42 , a 3.50 career ERA and averages nearly a strikeout per inning.
Moran, 25, is a 3B with middling pop, limited range and no speed. He doesn’t project to ever be a regular in Houston. He’s certainly not overtaking budding superstar Alex Bregman anytime soon, and he’s not bumping Yuli Gurriel off 1B either.
Musgrove, 24, regressed in his first full season in the majors, struggling badly in the rotation before eventually being moved to the bullpen, where he found some success. In 38 games, including 15 starts, Musgrove was 7-8 with a 4.77 ERA, while giving up a stunning 18 HRs in 109.1 IP. The moves the Astros have made in both the rotation and the bullpen (Joe Smith, Hector Rondon) made Musgrove an expendable piece.
Feliz, who will be 25 in June, has struggled to find a place in the Astros bullpen. He was 4-2 in 2017 with a 5.63 ERA. He surrendered 53 hits (including 8 HRs) and 22 walks in only 48 IP last season. Feliz has struggled to show any consistency in his 2+ years with the big club, displaying wipeout stuff but lacking control, and has been unreliable.
Martin is the youngest of the players in the deal, is 22 and finished last season at Double-A Corpus Christi. In 2017, Martin slashed to a line of .273/.319/.483 in 300 AB with the Hooks, bashing 11 HR with 37 RBI. He doesn’t project as a power hitter at the MLB level (approx. 15 Hr guy) but has shown some raw power. He has good speed but needs to learn better basestealing technique (7/13 SB). He will need to improve his defense in CF and learn better routes to balls to ever be a major league regular as he doesn’t project as a corner OF due to lack of power and below average arm.
For that quarter of non-top tier prospects, Luhnow landed a starter who finished fourth in the NL in the Cy Young voting in 2015, is in his prime, is inexpensive, and under control until 2020.
The Astros projected starting rotation is now:
Justin Verlander
Dallas Keuchel
Gerrit Cole
Lance McCullers Jr.
Charlie Morton
That may very well be the best rotation in the majors. It’s certainly the deepest. Plus, should injuries arise, Brad Peacock (13-2, 3.00 ERA, 161K in 132 IP in 2017) and Collin McHugh (5-2, 3.55 ERA 62K in 63 IP in 2017) are ready to step in. Not only is the starting five the deepest in MLB, they legitimately have the best two “in house guys” ready to step in.
It’s a brilliant move by the GM who has shown he is willing to go for the gold but always pays the "iron price." Every other team in baseball is groaning today that the World Champs just got better.
This team is not only built to win in the regular season, it's built to dominate. There’s also nothing to say that Luhnow is actually done improving the roster. He just does it his way, patiently stalking and pouncing when the moment is right.
Grand Theft Astros.
This is why every Astros fan can say this loud and proud, “In Luhnow We Trust.”
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It’s May 1, and the Astros are turning heads—but not for the reasons anyone expected. Their resurgence, driven not by stars like Yordan Alvarez or Christian Walker, but by a cast of less-heralded names, is writing a strange and telling early-season story.
Christian Walker, brought in to add middle-of-the-order thump, has yet to resemble the feared hitter he was in Arizona. Forget the narrative of a slow starter—he’s never looked like this in April. Through March and April of 2025, he’s slashing a worrying .196/.277/.355 with a .632 OPS. Compare that to the same stretch in 2024, when he posted a .283 average, .496 slug, and a robust .890 OPS, and it becomes clear: this is something more than rust. Even in 2023, his April numbers (.248/.714 OPS) looked steadier.
What’s more troubling than the overall dip is when it’s happening. Walker is faltering in the biggest moments. With runners in scoring position, he’s hitting just .143 over 33 plate appearances, including 15 strikeouts. The struggles get even more glaring with two outs—.125 average, .188 slugging, and a .451 OPS in 19 such plate appearances. In “late and close” situations, when the pressure’s highest, he’s practically disappeared: 1-for-18 with a .056 average and a .167 OPS.
His patience has waned (only 9 walks so far, compared to 20 by this time last year), and for now, his presence in the lineup feels more like a placeholder than a pillar.
The contrast couldn’t be clearer when you look at José Altuve—long the engine of this franchise—who, in 2024, delivered in the moments Walker is now missing. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Altuve hit .275 with an .888 OPS. In late and close situations, he thrived with a .314 average and .854 OPS. That kind of situational excellence is missing from this 2025 squad—but someone else may yet step into that role.
And yet—the Astros are winning. Not because of Walker, but in spite of him.
Houston’s offense, in general, hasn’t lit up the leaderboard. Their team OPS ranks 23rd (.667), their slugging 25th (.357), and they sit just 22nd in runs scored (117). They’re 26th in doubles, a rare place for a team built on gap-to-gap damage.
But where there’s been light, it hasn’t come from the usual spots. Jeremy Peña, often overshadowed in a lineup full of stars, now boasts the team’s highest OPS at .791 (Isaac Paredes is second in OPS) and is flourishing in his new role as the leadoff hitter. Peña’s balance of speed, contact, aggression, and timely power has given Houston a surprising tone-setter at the top.
Even more surprising: four Astros currently have more home runs than Yordan Alvarez.
And then there’s the pitching—Houston’s anchor. The rotation and bullpen have been elite, ranking 5th in ERA (3.23), 1st in WHIP (1.08), and 4th in batting average against (.212). In a season where offense is lagging and clutch hits are rare, the arms have made all the difference.
For now, it’s the unexpected contributors keeping Houston afloat. Peña’s emergence. A rock-solid pitching staff. Role players stepping up in quiet but crucial ways. They’re not dominating, but they’re grinding—and in a sluggish AL West, that may be enough.
Walker still has time to find his swing. He showed some signs of life against Toronto and Detroit. If he does, the Astros could become dangerous. If he doesn’t, the turnaround we’re witnessing will be credited to a new cast of unlikely faces. And maybe, that’s the story that needed to be written.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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