A big deal
Patrick Creighton: Luhnow does it again as Cole trade = Grand Theft Astros
Patrick Creighton
Jan 13, 2018, 8:18 pm
Jeff Luhnow and the Astros pulled off a steal in the Gerrit Cole trade. LA TImes
“In Luhnow We Trust.”
It’s fair to say that with full confidence the way Patriots fans say it about Bill Belichick. In his six-plus years as Astros GM, Jeff Luhnow rebuilt the farm system into one of baseball’s best, constructed a powerhouse MLB team that led the majors in runs scored and won the first World Series in franchise history.
After pulling off the biggest deadline deal of the 2017 season .landing future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander after months of patiently waiting out the market (early in the season teams were demanding packages centered around 3B Alex Bregman, whom Luhnow refused to deal), Luhnow has struck again.
The Astros already have the best lineup in baseball. They may now have the best rotation as well.
Luhnow swung a deal Saturday for Pirates ace Gerrit Cole, a top young pitcher who is only is only 27 years old and under team control while being arbitration eligible in 2019. Cole just agreed Friday to a one year, $6.75M deal to avoid arbitration, an incredibly low number for a pitcher of Cole’s caliber.
In exchange for their new star pitcher, Luhnow managed to deal zero of his top prospects.
You read that right, zero.
Luhnow traded 3B Colin Moran, RP Joe Musgrove, RP Michael Feliz and OF Jason Martin to acquire Cole, a 2015 All Star with a career record of 59-42 , a 3.50 career ERA and averages nearly a strikeout per inning.
Moran, 25, is a 3B with middling pop, limited range and no speed. He doesn’t project to ever be a regular in Houston. He’s certainly not overtaking budding superstar Alex Bregman anytime soon, and he’s not bumping Yuli Gurriel off 1B either.
Musgrove, 24, regressed in his first full season in the majors, struggling badly in the rotation before eventually being moved to the bullpen, where he found some success. In 38 games, including 15 starts, Musgrove was 7-8 with a 4.77 ERA, while giving up a stunning 18 HRs in 109.1 IP. The moves the Astros have made in both the rotation and the bullpen (Joe Smith, Hector Rondon) made Musgrove an expendable piece.
Feliz, who will be 25 in June, has struggled to find a place in the Astros bullpen. He was 4-2 in 2017 with a 5.63 ERA. He surrendered 53 hits (including 8 HRs) and 22 walks in only 48 IP last season. Feliz has struggled to show any consistency in his 2+ years with the big club, displaying wipeout stuff but lacking control, and has been unreliable.
Martin is the youngest of the players in the deal, is 22 and finished last season at Double-A Corpus Christi. In 2017, Martin slashed to a line of .273/.319/.483 in 300 AB with the Hooks, bashing 11 HR with 37 RBI. He doesn’t project as a power hitter at the MLB level (approx. 15 Hr guy) but has shown some raw power. He has good speed but needs to learn better basestealing technique (7/13 SB). He will need to improve his defense in CF and learn better routes to balls to ever be a major league regular as he doesn’t project as a corner OF due to lack of power and below average arm.
For that quarter of non-top tier prospects, Luhnow landed a starter who finished fourth in the NL in the Cy Young voting in 2015, is in his prime, is inexpensive, and under control until 2020.
The Astros projected starting rotation is now:
Justin Verlander
Dallas Keuchel
Gerrit Cole
Lance McCullers Jr.
Charlie Morton
That may very well be the best rotation in the majors. It’s certainly the deepest. Plus, should injuries arise, Brad Peacock (13-2, 3.00 ERA, 161K in 132 IP in 2017) and Collin McHugh (5-2, 3.55 ERA 62K in 63 IP in 2017) are ready to step in. Not only is the starting five the deepest in MLB, they legitimately have the best two “in house guys” ready to step in.
It’s a brilliant move by the GM who has shown he is willing to go for the gold but always pays the "iron price." Every other team in baseball is groaning today that the World Champs just got better.
This team is not only built to win in the regular season, it's built to dominate. There’s also nothing to say that Luhnow is actually done improving the roster. He just does it his way, patiently stalking and pouncing when the moment is right.
Grand Theft Astros.
This is why every Astros fan can say this loud and proud, “In Luhnow We Trust.”
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After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or nine games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.
Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after a 4-8 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.
While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez (though not Breggy Bad). A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.
Caratini comes through!
So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.
Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.
Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.
Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.
Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…
Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.