GAMBLING GUIDE
Play action or pass: The Wild Cards are on the table
Jerry Bo
Jan 5, 2018, 3:43 pm
The Jaguars defense will be tough on the Bills. Jacksonvillejaguars.com
Wild Card Weekend has arrived, and we've separated the contenders from the pretenders, or have we? Although these teams have advanced an "earned" a spot in the postseason, we look to take advantage of teams who may not be so deserving of its credentials.
Play action or pass is 48-38-2 (55.81%) for the season.
Be selective and don't force plays!
Plays
Titans at Chiefs -8.5 O/U 44.5
When handicapping a game, a few stats are crucial for measuring teams and the "wise guys" use these numbers to adjust their ratings. Strength of schedule is one of those stats. A great trend that I read about this week: Since 2002, teams with the tougher strength of schedule are 41-19 straight up and 41-18-1 ATS in the playoffs. The Titans are one of two teams in the playoffs with a negative point differential while playing a bottom five SOS. The only problem I see with fully believing in Kansas City is backing a team that has such a bad defense carrying such a big spread. Kansas City's defense has been terrible, ranking 32nd in weighted DVOA. The Chiefs are dead last vs. the run and that will allow Tennessee to be able to move the ball while keeping the clock ticking. When justifying large spreads, one must question how dominant the favorite is over the dog. Although I think the Chiefs can cover, I don't want to fully back them knowing the defense might struggle to get off the field at times and create separation on the scoreboard. The play I like for this game is the under. In Arrowhead, the Chiefs have held 14 straight opponents to 20 points or less. The Titans, only put up 17.5 points a game on the road and I see them having trouble scoring on Saturday. As I mentioned, the Chiefs defense will struggle vs. the run, but I see more of a bend, not break system vs. a team they can stack the box against not fearing a big play wide receiver which the Titans lack. Marcus Mariota’s road splits have been terrible where he holds a 5 to 11 TD to INT ratio. In situations where he will be asked to move the chains, can he be trusted to not turn the ball over? The total is slightly high, and I see value in the under. Temperatures are expected to be sub 30 with 10 MPH winds.
Play UNDER 44.5
Bills at Jaguars -9 O/U 39.5
How important is LeSean McCoy to the Bills offense? The Bills ball carrier is responsible for 33% of his team's offense, trailing only one other player in the NFL, Todd Gurley. McCoy will be a true game-time decision leaving us wondering how close to 100% can he be? The dropoff to 10-year veteran Mike Tolbert is drastic, as he has failed to surpass seven carries since week 5. The ground game will be critical as Sunday's forecast is calling for 12 MPH winds, favoring the Jags and their 12th ranked rushing offense in DVOA that will be facing the second worse rush defense in the league. If the Bills get behind or fail to have any success running the ball, they will have to rely on their quarterback Tyrod Taylor. The problem with this is he won't have much time to work within the pocket. Jacksonville's defensive line ranks #1 in pass rush on the season while the Bills offensive line ranks 27th in adjusted sack rate (8.6%). Sean McDermott is one of two 1st year head coaches making their playoff debuts in 2017. But this is nothing new for McDermott as he has a good history of coaching in the playoffs as a coordinator. He was the defensive coordinator for the Panthers team that reached the Super Bowl in 2015, and he was the Eagles defensive backs coach in 2004 when they got to the Super Bowl. Although it wasn't as the head coach, this won't be his first rodeo. I see this as a hard fought game that will be won in the trenches. We all know about Blake Bortles and his ability to throw away a game, but let's look further on how that can be expunged. The Jaguars will need a conservative gameplan to limit the pressure and the "need" to make plays from Bortles. The Jaguars play caller has been exceptional in first halves tossing 13 touchdowns to 3 interceptions compared to an 8 to 10 ratio in the second half. With no pressure, Bortles is able to manage the game knowing his stout defense will keep him in the game. His QBR in first halves is 96.0, the closing 30 minutes 72.4. Jacksonville will lean on the defense to set them up with short fields and turnovers while limiting the need for Bortles to create.
Play Jaguars -9
Action
Panthers +7
Falcons+6
Falcons/Rams over 48.5
Titans Teams Total under 17.5
Teasers 10 point
Chiefs +1/ Jags+1/ Falcons-Rams over 38.5 (2X)
Money and tickets
Chiefs 60% money 57% tickets
Falcons 51% money 50% tickets
Bills 52% money 49% tickets
Saints 52% 48% tickets
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.
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So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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