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3 critical factors that will determine long-term success for Rockets
Dec 8, 2021, 1:48 pm
The Rockets have won 6-straight games. Composite image by Jack Brame.
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The Rockets have done some pretty amazing things over the last couple weeks. While most teams and fan bases may not put much credence into a six-game win streak, things hit a little different in Houston these days. With the team looking so woefully inept last season, things got off to a rocky start this year. They were 1-16 and were on a 15-game slide prior to finding a winning formula. While some may make an argument for the who’s and why’s of the recent bout of success, I have my own opinions.
First up is Garrison Mathews. He's a 25-year-old shooting guard who's played in 92 games thus far in his career over three seasons but is still considered a rookie. He's the closest thing this team has to a 50/40/90 (percentages of field goals/threes/free throws) player as anything on this roster (48.8/42/80). He has the fifth-highest Player Efficiency Rating (14.33) on the team in only 10 games played. He's the kind of smart and efficient player that can stick around and contribute to a future playoff team here, while also helping the core guys grow.
Guard Armoni Brooks is another underrated Rocket during this recent uptick in play. He has a +19 plus/minus rating over the last few games, shooting 35% from three in the six-game win streak. Brooks is considered a rookie despite playing in 20 games last year and starting five of them. While the only stat that's gone up for Brooks has been his free throw percentage, he's managed to carve himself some playing time this season. He may earn himself more playing time if he continues to be a positive when on the court.
Jae'Sean Tate gives off P.J. Tucker vibes. Kevin Porter Jr and Jalen Green are copies of each other to me. Christian Wood should be traded to make more room for Alperen Sengun to play bigger minutes, so he develops. Sengun is a guy I believe can be a solid Robin to Green's Batman. KPJ is interesting because he and Green can either work or be a disaster. It really depends on his development as a point guard. The veteran players brought in should all have a singular focus: helping the younger guys develop, while helping create a winning culture in the organization. Sure, those guys want to come in and win, but they're also professionals and understand what's asked of them. Anything outside of that should be eliminated.
Ultimate success for the Rockets will come down to 3 key factors
Green is seen as the unquestioned future of this franchise, but guys like Sengun, Tate, Brooks, and Mathews seem like good fits to keep around Green. They should turn into complimentary pieces. Keeping young players around Green, and potentially KPJ, will help them grow together. We've seen what happens when a young team is put together and grows together. I'm not saying they'll become a Warriors, Patriots, or any other recent dynasty, but the possibilities are there. This roster can turn into something special if given the right time, opportunities, and environment to grow in.
I often wonder what would've happened to those early '00s Clippers teams if they had been cultivated properly? Could they have given the Lakers, Blazers, and Kings more of a threat? This Rockets team reminds me of them, with this collection of talented young guys. I hope they can realize their potential as a group. Imagine what this fan base would do if the Rockets actually turned into a group of homegrown winners like the Astros did?
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The Houston Astros walked out of Phoenix with a three-game sweep of the Diamondbacks, but the biggest win of the series might not have been in the standings, it could’ve been the emergence of their latest young spark plug.
Once again, the pitching carried the load. Brandon Walter continued his breakout season with another strong showing, and right now, he looks like Houston’s third starter if the playoffs began today. Behind him, Ryan Gusto and Colton Gordon have quietly helped stabilize a rotation ravaged by injuries. All three own ERAs under 4.5, a luxury the Astros couldn’t have anticipated heading into the year. Another thing they couldn't have anticipated was Lance McCullers' ERA this season being almost seven.
Walter’s rise comes at the same time the McCullers situation grows murkier. After starting the season late, he’s on the injured list again, this time with a blister on his pitching hand. Though the issue isn’t related to his arm, the “vibes” simply haven't been there. He’s struggled in four of his last five starts, and one wonders whether a "phantom" IL stint might be in his future, especially with Cristian Javier and Spencer Arrighetti progressing in rehab assignments. The roster squeeze is coming, and McCullers might not make the cut.
Crushing dingers!
Offensively, the conversation begins and ends with Brice Matthews. The first-round pick has quickly shifted from injury fill-in to potential staple, nearly winning the series by himself with three home runs across the first two games. His athleticism has popped in the field, and while contact concerns remain, the power and energy are real. Matthews is the only prospect of his pedigree ready to contribute, so the club made a wise decision to take a shot on upside, and Matthews delivered. That's why we were so emphatic about the Astros elevating Matthews. Get him in the lineup as a DH if you have to, whatever it takes, this offense needs pop. Then lo and behold, not only does he give the offense a lift, his defense also helped seal a win against Arizona.
Veteran slugger Christian Walker might be heating up too, posting a .348 average with three home runs and an .895 OPS in July. That’s a promising development, especially in a month when the Astros have flipped their typical formula. The pitching has been average — 18th in ERA, 18th in WHIP, 21st in opponent batting average — but the offense has been elite: top-five in slugging, OPS, and runs scored.
Injury bug
Still, questions persist. Chief among them is the health of Yordan Alvarez. His recent comments about his hand injury — specifically, his uncertainty and acknowledgement that rest hasn’t helped — were troubling. If surgery isn’t an option and time off isn’t working, what is the long-term solution? At this point, fans are right to worry about whether Alvarez will ever fully return to the dominant form he once showed.
Trade deadline
With the trade deadline one week away, general manager Dana Brown has to weigh all of this. The pitching could soon be bolstered by returns from the IL. But the offense, especially with no clear return dates for Alvarez, Jeremy Peña, Jake Meyers, and Isaac Paredes, might need immediate help. Despite the sweep, Houston scored just three and four runs in the final two games of the Diamondbacks series. If they’re serious about contending for a championship, another bat may be required. They'll see much better pitching in the postseason.
If the Astros do decide to add an arm, a power right-handed reliever could make sense. With Bryan Abreu the only truly dominant righty in the bullpen, a little late-inning muscle wouldn’t hurt.
Bottom line: the Astros are winning, and they're doing it in multiple ways. But with health concerns piling up and playoff positioning tightening, there’s still plenty of work ahead. Fortunately for Houston, they may have just found another foundational piece in the most unexpected place, a rookie who’s already changing the conversation.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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