Twitter Mailbag
Rockets Mailbag: Ideal playoff brackets, adjustments against micro-ball, and more
Mar 16, 2020, 12:25 am
Twitter Mailbag
Before the NBA suspended league-play, I received a bunch of Rockets-related questions on Twitter and never got around to answering them. Assuming the NBA does plan to wrap their season up in three months, here are the answers to some of those questions (mostly about Houston's closing stretch).
@SalmanAliNBA @RedNationHoops @AdamSpolane What would the dream playoff bracket for the Rockets be?— Matthew Cardenas (@Matthew Cardenas) 1583901267.0
This is an awesome question because if you just flip it to "What would an ideal first round matchup for the Rockets be?", you'd get an entirely different answer. Generally, I think it's more important to prioritize seeding and first round matchups and then worry about the rest later. However, I'll put that aside to answer this question.
Even if the NBA didn't shorten the rest of the season once it returned, it was already unlikely that the Rockets could get the 2nd seed. So, you're looking at falling anywhere from 3-6 (currently 6th). No ideal matchup for the Rockets involves playing the first round at home, so I'll eliminate any scenario in which they fall to the 5th or 6th seed.
This leaves the 3rd and the 4th seed and between those two, I actually believe it's better for the Rockets to get the fourth seed. The reason is, I think the Rockets stand a better chance at beating the Lakers in round two than the Clippers. Fundamentally I believe the Clippers have a higher playoff ceiling than the Lakers and have the defensive versatility to counter everything Houston wants to do.
I also think the Rockets put the Lakers in really uncomfortable situations with their micro-ball lineups. Even if you disagree with this thesis, it doesn't really matter because the Rockets would probably have to face both teams anyways to make the Finals. They don't care when they get eliminated because the goal isn't to get eliminated at all. The difference between a second round out and a Western Conference Finals appearance is purely optics for an organization like Houston.
This leaves the obvious question: what about round one? Between the Nuggets and the Jazz, I think Houston would much rather play Utah. They have a history of making Rudy Gobert really uncomfortable defending in space and I think Denver is just better. The Rockets also lost the athletic advantage they had over Denver for years in the Clint Capela trade.
So the ideal bracket would be Rockets face the Jazz in the 4-5 matchup, then the Lakers in the 1-4, then presumably the Clippers in the Western Conference Finals, and then the Bucks in the Finals.
Ideally, the Rockets avoid the Clippers in the Western Conference Finals and play the Nuggets. Houston would also rather play any Eastern Conference team other than the Bucks. However, you have to keep the bracket somewhat realistic.
@SalmanAliNBA @RedNationHoops @AdamSpolane Are teams adapting to the small ball scheme ?— Bill Huey (hui) (@Bill Huey (hui)) 1583905994.0
Yes, but it's really subtle. You're starting to see teams pack the paint against Houston and dare their average three-point shooters to hit shots. Houston doesn't mind this adjustment as long as these shooters actually hit shots - which they haven't been of late. I understand the logic behind leaving guys like P.J. Tucker and Robert Covington open for three, but over the course of a seven-game series, it could come back to bite these teams. They're banking on Houston having historically bad shooting efforts in the playoffs.
Which, in their defense, has happened before.
Alykhan Bijani of The Athletic wrote a more in-depth breakdown of these adjustments if you want to go see if yourself.
@SalmanAliNBA @RedNationHoops @AdamSpolane Westbrook and Harden aside, who should step up for the Rockets to be a Championship conteder?— agusmaffe (@agusmaffe) 1583901390.0
After the Clint Capela trade, it's pretty clear that Eric Gordon has become the third most important player on this basketball team. It's true salary-wise and on the court, Houston isn't making a deep run without a healthy and fully functioning Gordon. The problem is - he hasn't been healthy and functioning this year.
For starters, Gordon has already missed 30 out of Houston's 64 games this season due to his right knee injuries. Gordon originally started the season off really poorly, got surgery, returned and looked good, and then re-injured the knee in late February. The games he has played in have been some of the worst of his career. This, of course, is completely out of his control. However, with the nearly three months off he's about to receive, Gordon will have time to train and fully recuperate that knee.
The answer is Eric Gordon and it's a no brainer.
@SalmanAliNBA @RedNationHoops @AdamSpolane Westbrook and Harden aside, who should step up for the Rockets to be a Championship conteder?— agusmaffe (@agusmaffe) 1583901390.0
Their styles of play definitely conflict in that they are both high-usage ball handlers that were meant to be the hubs of their team's offense. However, Westbrook has never been efficient enough to lead an elite offense on his own and thus, it makes sense for him to adapt to being a secondary ball handler. That was never where the fit issues came from, however.
It's always been about floor spacing and Russell Westbrook's shooting. Teams didn't just start doubling and trapping James Harden because it was a new idea. They did it because it was now possible with two non-shooters on the floor in Westbrook and Clint Capela. The Clint Capela trade opened things up, however, and I think the fit has looked a lot better since.
They've had several games since where both have been very good (Minnesota, Memphis, Utah, etc…). Harden and Westbrook can succeed together. Now if the question is, "Are the pieces around them good enough to win a championship this year?", that's still up in the air. However, I do tend to lean "no" due to the current powerhouses in the Western Conference.
That has nothing to do with fit though. It has to do with team strength.
@SalmanAliNBA @RedNationHoops @AdamSpolane What improvements/ positives did you see in the timberwolves game? Or w… https://t.co/EjvRH8Ko6m— rj (@rj) 1583902286.0
I think you were on the right track about taking that win with a grain of salt. There were, however, some things Houston could build upon. For starters, James Harden was very good and tallied 37 points, 7 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 steals, and 1 block on 11 of 19 shooting from the field and 5 of 10 shooting from three-point range. This was after two weeks of Harden struggling to make three-pointers fall.
The team as a whole also shot much better from behind the arc (15 of 38 or 40%). They looked flustered and without confidence in the past couple games and started to pass up on open looks. Defensively, the Rockets were mediocre - which is better than awful.
I guess the best term to describe that game for Houston is "baby steps".
I'll be doing more of these mailbags throughout this period without games. Be sure to follow me on Twitter for when we do another of these (@SalmanAliNBA).
Stay safe everyone!
While the rolling Astros have a week of possible World Series preview matchups against the Phillies and Cubs, it’s the Rockets who made the biggest local sports headline with their acquisition of Kevin Durant. What a move! Of course there is risk involved in trading for a guy soon to turn 37 years old and who carries an injury history, but balancing risk vs. reward is a part of the game. This is a fabulous move for the Rockets. It’s understood that there are dissenters to this view. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, including people with the wrong opinion! Let’s dig in.
The Rockets had a wonderful season in winning 52 games before their disappointing first-round playoff loss to the Warriors, but like everyone else in the Western Conference, they were nowhere close to Oklahoma City’s caliber. While they finished second in the West, the Rockets only finished four games ahead of the play-in. That letting the stew simmer with further growth among their young players would yield true championship contention was no given for 2025-26 or beyond.
Kevin Durant is one of the 10 greatest offensive players the NBA has ever seen. Among his current contemporaries only Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic make that list. For instance, Durant offensively has clearly been better than the late and legendary Kobe Bryant. To view it from a Houston perspective, Durant has been an indisputably greater offensive force than the amazing Hakeem Olajuwon. But this is not a nostalgia trip in which the Rockets are trading for a guy based on what he used to be. While Durant could hit the wall at any point, living in fear that it’s about to happen is no way to live because KD, approaching his 18th NBA season, is still an elite offensive player.
As to the durability concern, Durant played more games (62) this past season than did Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith, and Tari Eason. The season before he played more games (75) than did VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Alperen Sengun. In each of the last two seasons Durant averaged more minutes per game (36.9) than any Rocket. That was stupid and/or desperate of the Suns, the Rockets will be smarter. Not that the workload eroded Durant’s production or efficiency. Over the two seasons he averaged almost 27 points per game while shooting 52 percent from the floor, 42 percent from behind the three-point line, and 85 percent from the free throw line. Awesomeness. The Rockets made the leap to being a very good team despite a frankly crummy half-court offense. The Rockets ranked 21st among the 30 NBA teams in three-point percentage, and dead last in free throw percentage. Amen Thompson has an array of skills and looks poised to be a unique star. Alas, Thompson has no credible jump shot. VanVleet is not a creator, Smith has limited handle. Adding Durant directly addresses the Rockets’ most glaring weakness.
The price the Rockets paid was in the big picture, minimal, unless you think Jalen Green is going to become a bonafide star. Green is still just 23 years old and spectacular athletically, but nothing he has done over four pro seasons suggests he’s on the cusp of greatness. In no season has Green even shot the league average from the floor or from three. His defense has never been as good as it should be given his athleticism. Compared to some other two-guards who made the NBA move one year removed from high school, four seasons into his career Green is waaaaaay behind where Shae Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Devin Booker were four seasons in, and now well behind his draft classmate Cade Cunningham. Dillon Brooks was a solid pro in two seasons here and shot a career-best from three in 2024-2025, but he’s being replaced by Kevin Durant! In terms of the draft pick capital sent to Phoenix, five second round picks are essentially meaningless. The Rockets have multiple extra first round picks in the coming years. As for the sole first-rounder dealt away, whichever player the Rockets would have taken 10th Wednesday night would have been rather unlikely to crack the playing rotation.
VanVleet signs extension
Re-signing Fred VanVleet to a two-year, 50 million dollar guarantee is sensible. In a vacuum, VanVleet was substantially overpaid at the over 40 mil he made per season the last two. He’s a middle-of-the-pack starting point guard. But his professionalism and headiness brought major value to the Rockets’ kiddie corps while their payroll was otherwise very low. Ideally, Reed Sheppard makes a leap to look like an NBA lead guard in his second season, after a pretty much zippo of a rookie campaign. Sheppard is supposed to be a lights-out shooter. For the Rockets to max out, they need two sharpshooters on the court to balance Thompson’s presence.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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