A DEEPER LOOK
Salman Ali: Is James Ennis a Diamond in the Rough for the Rockets?
Salman Ali
Aug 10, 2018, 2:59 pm
James Ennis could be a key addition for the Rockets. Leon Halip/Getty Images
Every NBA offseason there are signings made that go under the radar, but end up being very critical during the season. Take for example, Joe Ingles for the Utah Jazz last summer. While Ingles was considered to be a good player, he had only started 58 out of 242 games for the Jazz up to that point and had to fill some pretty big shoes with the departure of Gordon Hayward.
Utah made a gamble that while Joe Ingles was already 29 at the time, there was still some untapped potential to be had. It ultimately ended up paying off big time as Ingles went on to have a career year, averaging highs in points, rebounds, assists, and minutes (11.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.2 APG, on 31.4 MPG).
It seems the Houston Rockets are making a similar gamble this summer with the signing of 28 year old James Ennis. While it may not cost them as much as Ingles ended up costing Utah (4 years, $52 million), there's a lot riding on Ennis working out for Houston.
It's well noted that the Rockets lost a lot of wing depth this summer with the departures of starting small forward Trevor Ariza and bench swingman Luc Mbah a Moute. Houston's switch-heavy defensive scheme relies on having versatile wings who can defend multiple positions. Without Ariza and Mbah a Moute, Ennis will have to fill a huge role right off the bat. Also, with Ennis having the option to opt out of his minimum deal next summer in favor of a bigger deal, it's beneficial for both sides that this gamble work out.
Now it’s not like James Ennis is completely unproven, but he’s never had the chance to establish himself in a team’s consistent rotation. Ennis has been in the league for 4 years but has already bounced around to four different teams. The best season of his career was in 2015-16 when the New Orleans Pelicans were hit with a barrage of injuries and Ennis had to step up and play big minutes (31.3 MPG). However, in those minutes he averaged 15.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG, and 1.3 SPG on 64.7% True Shooting. He even shot a ridiculous 48% from 3 on 5.6 attempts per game. While it’s unlikely he’ll ever replicate this kind of season, there’s reason to believe that Ennis can be very productive if he’s given the proper playing time, which he’ll find in droves in Houston.
Ennis certainly fits the mould of a 3 and D wing the Rockets have liked to plug and play in their system over the years. He’s long (6’7 with a 6’11 wingspan) and athletic which translates well to the switching scheme the Rockets have played the last couple of years. It’s also translated to Ennis being an above average defender over the course of his career. Last season, the Memphis Grizzlies were 3.7 points per 100 possessions better when James Ennis was on the court. As a point of comparison, the Rockets were 4.2 points per 100 possessions when Luc Mbah a Moute was on the floor.
Here’s a clip of James Ennis doing a good job to contain James Harden in 2017.
Ennis has also been a capable shooter stretching back to his college days. As a junior and senior, he shot 35.0% and 35.8% respectively. As an NBA player, Ennis is a career 35.9% 3-PT shooter. In comparison, Trevor Ariza shot 35.3% from 3 throughout his career and Luc Mbah a Moute shot 33.6%. Essentially, Ennis is on par, and perhaps a slight notch above the players he will be replacing as a shooter. In Houston, he will have to bump up his attempts per game quite a bit, but that shouldn’t be a problem if his career trends persist.
The Rockets brass seem to have a high level of belief in Ennis. When asked about Houston’s offseason at Texans’ training camp, head coach Mike D’Antoni said “I think James Ennis can be really good. I think people are downplaying him.” General Manager Daryl Morey also had similar things to say on The Herd with Colin Cowherd when asked about the departure of Trevor Ariza, “We feel like James Ennis coming in is someone that can really add a lot.”
Whether or not James Ennis starts or not is irrelevant. What matters is he will have to play a ton more minutes this year and a lot of those minutes will come with closing units and Houston’s most important lineups. Ennis looks like a promising addition, but he will still have to prove his worth in a new role with bigger responsibilities.
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The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
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