PLAYING THE PONIES
Sam Houston Race Park selections for Saturday, March 14
Mar 14, 2020, 6:50 am
Coady photography
Here are my selections for Saturday night at Sam Houston Race Park. These are not meant to be in exact order, but merely the four horses I think have the best chance to win. For beginners, I suggest exacta boxes with three horses, using two of mine and one of your own. And you can always pick up a copy of Acing Racing 2016 to learn everything you need to know. (These are the picks and format that are available on the free tip sheet at SHRP).
FIRST
3-7-4-5
FINAL EXAM facd tough company in last; priors make him competitive
SECOND
3-1-5-6
NACOGDOCHES has been a money burner but might have found the right spot
THIRD
4-8-6-3
UNCORKED HUMOR should thrive at this distance
FOURTH
3-7-6-4
LOVELY LADY might wake up with the big drop in class
FIFTH
3-2-6-5
EMPRESSIVE REWARD has solid connections and some decent efforts
SIXTH
3-2-8-4
RANCHO BARGO might have found a good spot for a breakthrough
SEVENTH
3-7-6-1
GEOSCIENCE has flashed speed in both starts and should be in the mix
EIGHTH
8-5-2-7
CAIRO KING heads a pair of Asmussen runners that could win this
NINTH
2-3-6-5
WHISKEY FACTOR has nice works over the track and some decent efforts in his three starts
For years, the Astros built their dynasty on precision — smart bets, savvy scouting, and a steady refusal to let emotion cloud judgment. But as the 2025 season rolls into June, that precision feels dulled. Houston still wears the polish of a perennial contender, but underneath, the gears are grinding. A thin lineup, a faltering rotation, and a public misfire in player health management have created a team still standing, but no longer towering.
Houston still has a great chance to win the AL West, thanks more to the division’s mediocrity than its own dominance. But the warning lights are flashing.
Identifying the weak link
The biggest concern right now? It’s hard to choose just one.
The Astros’ offense has been startlingly average — 14th in OPS, 18th in runs scored. When this team had Springer, Correa, Bregman, and peak Altuve, scoring was a given. Now, it’s a grind. Too much depends on too few — and when a key piece like Isaac Paredes slumps, as he has recently, the whole offense stutters.
But the lineup isn’t alone in its inconsistency. The back half of the rotation has become a weak point due to a rash of injuries. With Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown pulling their weight at the top, the drop-off behind them is stark. Houston used to bury teams with pitching depth; now it’s just hoping for enough quality starts to make their elite bullpen matter.
The Yordan situation
And then there’s Yordan Alvarez and his fractured hand.
The slugger’s delayed return raised eyebrows. The lack of clarity around his status raised more. It's hard not to boil this down to outright incompetence.
If this were a one-off, it might be brushed aside. But it’s not. It’s another example of a once-cutting-edge organization starting to look clumsy at the margins.
Wasting prime Framber?
All of this would feel less urgent if Houston were building toward something. The team’s decision to trade Kyle Tucker this past offseason spoke volumes. It wasn’t just about resetting the CBT. It was a pivot, a signal that the franchise was playing the long game. And with Framber likely on his way out after this season, the choice to pass on going all-in this year becomes even more glaring.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
*ChatGPT assisted.
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