Welcome. Let's talk Rockets.
State of the Rockets: Danuel House's peculiar play, Russell Westbrook's efficiency, James Harden's defense and more
Jan 20, 2020, 4:59 am
Welcome. Let's talk Rockets.
Rockets' advanced stats (per cleaningtheglass.com):
As of last week:
Offensive RTG: 113.8 (3rd)
Defensive RTG: 108.7 (15th)
Net RTG: +5.1 (6th)
As of this week:
Offensive RTG: 113.3 (4th)
Defensive RTG: 109.4 (15th)
Net RTG: +3.9 (9th)
Biggest developments:
1. Rockets lose three games in a row
It may seem too obvious to put this here, but it's certainly the biggest development of the week. The Rockets are in a rough spot, and that's something you'll hear from the players and coaches. Games have been lost, team meetings have been had, and things haven't turned around quite yet. It's possible that this is just a tough spot and it'll eventually turn around for Houston (P.J. Tucker certainly thinks so), but an outside observer will tell you this looks like a spiraling basketball team and it would be totally inbounds to have that opinion.
Russell Westbrook: "Got to stay positive. Like I said the other day, in adversity, what are you going to do? You go… https://t.co/weesRqYGNO— Salman Ali (@Salman Ali) 1579409996.0
Over the past three games, the Rockets have a -11.5 point differential per 100 possessions (24th in the league in that span). Houston's loss Saturday night was particularly bad because not only were the Lakers without Anthony Davis, but going into it, the team had already lost three out of their previous four games. It was a must-win in every sense of the phrase.
2. Austin Rivers sprains right thumb
The extent of the damage to River's right thumb is still unknown, but considering the rail-thin nature of this roster, this is a big deal. Mike D'Antoni said that Rivers suffered this injury against Memphis and talked about possible ligament damage. With Rivers out, the Rockets only have Eric Gordon as a good option to defend ball handlers.
3. Danuel House continues his slump
This storyline is completely bizarre. How does one go from a pretty good starter to a below average NBA rotation player? House had become a reliable shooter and somewhat capable defender for houston until the calendar flipped. Ever since December 29th (22 points against New Orleans), House has only had one double-digit game in which he scored 10 points on 3 of 9 shooting from the field. While it's true that Ben McLemore has House in the rotation, House has proven in the past that he can perform well off the bench. Until there is word about a possible injury, we must assume that his is just a very bad slump for House.
4. Isaiah Hartenstein falls out of the rotation
Up until this week, it looked like Isaiah Hartenstein was finally going to get a fair crack at the backup center spot. Everything seemed to crescendo on January 11th against the Timberwolves where Hartenstein had an impressive stat-line of 17 points, 15 rebounds, 5 blocks, 2 steals, and 1 assist on 8 of 9 shooting from the field. Ever since that night, he's played a grand total of five minutes. It's hard to justify this considering it really looked like Hartenstein had proved his worth as a solid backup option to Clint Capela, but Mike D'Antoni's instinct has been to go small with P.J. Tucker at backup center or even give Tyson Chandler minutes in the case of the Lakers game.
You give a hall of famer like Mike D'Antoni the benefit of the doubt of 99.9% of things relating to the roster he's coaching, but it's only natural to question his judgement when it relates to Hartenstein.
Week of games in review:
When you lose three games in a row, there's really not much to say other than "the team has been bad". The fact that two of these losses have come against below .500 teams is truly what makes it worse.
Questions for the coming week:
1. Has Russell Westbrook turned a corner on his efficiency?
Lost in the shuffle of how bad the Rockets have been is how well Russell Westbrook has been playing as of late. Over his last four games, Westbrook has logged at least 30 points and 5 assists on at least 54.7% true shooting. Westbrook's regular season efficiency numbers have ticked up a little from below 50% true shooting to 51.4% at the moment. For his career, Westbrook is shooting 52.8% true shooting and it'll be interesting if he can get back to that mark.
All season, Westbrook's production and efficiency has been been compared to that of Chris Paul's. And while that is perfectly logical and fair to do considering this was a straight one for one player swap with picks attached to Paul, that isn't the central question for Houston this season. The relevant question isn't "Is Chris Paul playing better than Russell Westbrook in 2019-20?", it's "Is Russell Westbrook good enough to be the second best player on a title contender in 2019-20?" All the other stuff are just macro-evaluations of the trade and evaluating Houston's future prospects. That stuff is important, but it's not the most important for the Rockets this season.
It'll be interesting if Westbrook's percentages drop, stabilize, or even rise up from these current percentages.
2. Will James Harden start caring about his effort on defense again?
It seems fans have shifted all their ire towards head coach Mike D'Antoni for not playing Isaiah Hartenstein enough or forcing Houston's hand with forward Gary Clark's waiver. However, someone who has not received enough blame from fans for his effort or lack thereof is James Harden. Harden's effort on both ends of the floor fell off of a plateau this week. In the game against Portland, Harden attempted less field goals than four other Rockets players. It completely flew under the radar how nonchalant Harden was in that game. Granted, he was being trapped for some of it, but Harden was also passive when he did get single coverage opportunities and chose not to take advantage of them.
Before the past two weeks, Harden's defense was actually fairly commendable for the Rockets. It looked like the game against Miami unlocked something in him that forced him to care on all possessions defensively. These past two weeks, however, Harden's been a statue who swipes at the ball when somebody attacks him off the dribble. C.J. McCollum completely torched him off the dribble and Lakers players did the same the next night on back cuts. Harden resorted to poking at the ball when players drove past him and it hurt the Rockets as bad as anything. On the season, the Rockets are 6.0 points per 100 possessions worse when Harden is on the floor (second to Westbrook's -6.8 points per 100 possessions).
If the Rockets continue to start Ben McLemore alongside Harden and Westbrook, at least one of those two has to become above average defensively for Houston to crack the top ten defenses in the NBA.
3. Is P.J. Tucker's shoulder going to be okay?
P.J. Tucker suffered a right shoulder stinger against the Minnesota Timberwolves on January 11th after receiving a pretty hard screen from Gorgui Dieng and seemed to re-aggravate it after another hard screen, this time from veteran center Dwight Howard. Tucker has not shot the three-ball well since December 21st and an injury to his shooting shoulder can't help his prospects of getting back on track.
4. Can the Rockets win their next two home games?
If the Lakers game was a 'must-win', the next two home games against the Thunder and Nuggets are what you may call a 'super-must-win' game. If you lose both of these games, it's possible the bottom falls out from underneath and the team never recovers.
"It does put a premium on these next two games," agreed Mike D'Antoni at Sunday's practice. "But it [also] puts a premium on 'Lets get it right'. The results will take care of themselves."
The Rockets insist that internally they are calm and know how to come out of this rut because of the experience on the roster.
"We know what we need to do," said Eric Gordon. "We're an older, veteran team - we know exactly what's going, what's happening. Like I said before, it's the consistency from quarter to quarter in games."
Bruce Bochy doesn’t ever want the Texas Rangers to let go of those memories of their first World Series title.
“We just don’t want to lean on them,” said Bochy, whose first season with the Rangers ended with the first World Series championship for the 63-year-old franchise, and his fourth as a big league manager.
While Texas has the opportunity to be the first team in a quarter-century to win back-to-back world championships — the New York Yankees were the last, with three in a row from 1998-2000 — the Rangers aren’t even defending champs in their own division.
And they aren’t favored to win the AL West this season.
Houston is again the odds-on favorite in the division it has won each of the last six full MLB seasons since the Rangers finished on top in 2016. The Astros won their regular season finale last Oct. 1, matched Texas at 90-72 and won the AL West since they were 9-4 head-to-head.
The Astros have made the AL Championship Series the past seven seasons, even when not division champs in the 2020 season shortened to 60 games because of the pandemic. They made four trips to the Fall Classic and won two titles in that span.
Dusty Baker retired days after Houston lost ALCS Game 7 at home to the Rangers last fall, finishing with 2,183 wins over 26 seasons as a big league manager with five teams.
New Astros manager Joe Espada, their bench coach for six seasons, is certainly familiar with a lineup that has big hitters Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker, and a loaded starting rotation.
Espada isn't the division's only new manager. Ron Washington, who took the Rangers to their previous World Series in 2010 and 2011, was hired by the Angels, who still have Mike Trout but not two-way star Shohei Ohtani, now with the other team in Los Angeles.
Seattle again revamped its roster without big spending in free agency and hopes for a quicker return to the playoffs. The Mariners missed by one game last season, a year after its first postseason appearance since 2001.
And just like last year, the Athletics go into another season not knowing if it will be their last in Oakland.
HOW THEY PROJECT1. Houston Astros. Three-time Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander, reacquired in a deadline trade last July, will start this season on the injured list. But the 41-year-old’s IL stint is expected to be a short one. The Astros still have lefty Framber Valdez (12-11, 2.45 ERA, 200 strikeouts and a no-hitter) and right-hander Cristian Javier. Eight-time All-Star second baseman Altuve signed a new $125 million, five-year contract that goes through 2029. But two-time All-Star third baseman Bregman, the only other position player to make all seven ALCS trips, is at the end of a $100 million deal.
2. Texas Rangers. After going from six losing seasons in a row to a World Series title, the Rangers should be playoff contenders again. They return ALCS MVP Adolis García and most of the lineup that hit 233 homers and scored an AL-high 5.4 runs per game. But World Series MVP and AL MVP runner-up shortstop Corey Seager (sports hernia), Gold Glove first baseman Nathaniel Lowe (oblique strain) and All-Star third baseman Josh Jung (calf) missed significant time in the spring. All-Star right-hander Nathan Eovaldi tops a rotation still missing injured multiple Cy Young Award winners Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom.
3. Seattle Mariners. The front office put together a roster that might be better than last year, but everybody has to stay healthy. Seattle should be better offensively with the additions of Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger, Jorge Polanco and Luke Raley to go with young superstar Julio Rodriguez. If J.P. Crawford can replicate last season at the plate and Ty France returns to his 2021-22 form, the lineup will be deeper. Couple a better offense with one of the best rotations in baseball led by Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert, the Mariners should once again contend in the division.
4. Los Angeles Angels. They feel like they’re starting over yet again and still haven't been to the playoffs since 2014. Ohtani left after six seasons for a record $700 million with the perennially contending Dodgers. The Halos added almost nothing in free agency, only revamping their bullpen again and taking low-cost flyers on Aaron Hicks and Miguel Sano. Trout and Anthony Rendon are back, and an open DH spot will allow them to rest their injury-prone bodies more regularly. Their rotation is last year’s group minus Ohtani. The 71-year-old Washington brings a unique blend of expertise and enthusiasm, which should benefit an exciting crop of young talent ready to break through in the majors.
5. Oakland Athletics. This could be the final season playing at the Coliseum with a lease set to expire. So the A's are still trying to figure out where they will play beyond this year with a new ballpark and move to Las Vegas scheduled for 2028. Manager Mark Kotsay has been committed to keeping his team focused on what it can do to be better on the field after two years with a combined 214 losses (112 last season). The A’s acquired Ross Stripling from the San Francisco Giants and added Alex Wood to the rotation.
OLD SKIPPERSWhen the 74-year-old Baker retired, Bochy became the oldest manager in the majors. That lasted only a few weeks until the Angels hired Washington. Bochy will turn 69 on April 16, just 13 days before Washington turns 72. Bochy, with 2,093 wins going into his 27th season, is one of six managers with four World Series titles, his first three coming in San Francisco (2010, 2012 and 2014). Washington won a franchise-record 664 games in eight seasons with Texas from 2007-14. He was on Atlanta's staff the past seven years, and part of the Braves' 2021 World Series title.
RELIEF HELPSeveral new relievers are in the AL West, including hard-throwing lefty Josh Hader with the Astros, veteran right-hander David Robertson and former All-Star closer Kirby Yates in Texas, Gregory Santos and Ryne Stanek in Seattle and Robert Stephenson with the Angels.
Hader's $95 million, five-year deal was the biggest after becoming a first-time free agent. The 29-year-old, once in the Astros' minor league system, turned down a $20,325,000 qualifying offer from San Diego.