Welcome. Let's talk Rockets.
State of the Rockets: Eric Gordon's back, signature victories, and more
Jan 5, 2020, 3:38 am
Welcome. Let's talk Rockets.
Introduction:
Hello, my name is Salman Ali and I cover the Houston Rockets. Most people reading probably already know this, but I feel like a proper introduction is in order. Every week, I go to the Toyota Center several times to cover Rockets' practices, games, and other miscellaneous team events. I notice things about the team and then proceed write about it, tweet about it, and even podcast about it.
However, I always feel I can do more, and that's what this is. Starting today, I will be writing a weekly column on the Rockets including random observations, pressing questions, general thoughts, and some statistics I can sprinkle in. I'm not quite sure how I'm going to go about this or even if there's going to be a specific format, but I guess that's what's fun about it. What I do know is that every Sunday there will be an article here on SportsMap about the Rockets.
So without further adieu, welcome to the very first 'State of the Rockets'.
Rockets' advanced stats (per cleaningtheglass.com):
Offensive RTG: 114.1 (3rd)
Defensive RTG: 109.2 (17th)
Net RTG: +4.9 (7th)
Biggest developments:
1. Eric Gordon's return to the rotation
Eric Gordon has returned the the rotation for the Rockets after receiving arthroscopy on his right knee in mid-November. The Rockets were careful in bringing Gordon back and originally placed him on a minutes restriction of 25 minutes per game, but that's now since bumped up to 30 minutes. As a whole, Gordon's played well since his return, scoring 14.7 points per game on 40.9 percent from beyond the three-point line.
The bigger story here is that the Rockets are fully healthy for the first time since the beginning of the season. It's hard not to be cautiously skeptical of the team's status as a tier one title contender this season, but Gordon is significant enough of a player to hold off on grandiose declarations about the team until he's become acclimated. Offensively, the Rockets were going to be awesome this season either way, but it's really the defense where Gordon has the potential to be a real game-changer. Without Chris Paul this season, the Rockets have not had a strong point-of-attack defense and Gordon provides Houston with someone other than Austin Rivers who can defend well on-ball.
Rockets Defensive RTG (last two games):
With Eric Gordon: 100.0
Without Eric Gordon: 109.6
The Rockets can also lower the load on players like James Harden and Russell Westbrook.
Splash Gordon Is Back! ☔️ https://t.co/2sh4pUwV3i— Houston Rockets (@Houston Rockets) 1577668384.0
2. Isaiah Hartenstein temporarily secures backup center spot
According to head coach Mike D'Antoni himself, 21-year-old center Isaiah Hartenstein has secured the backup center spot in Houston's rotation "for now". This has the potential to be a big development for Houston as they've struggled to find consistent play behind Clint Capela for months now, and Hartenstein has played well enough to warrant that spot (14.1 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks on 70.4% true shooting per 36 minutes). This also hopefully puts the bed the idea that Mike D'Antoni willfully ignores playing talented young players at every turn considering 3 of Houston's ten-man rotation is now under the age of 27 (House, Capela, and Hartenstein).
Of course, the caveat of all caveats here is "for now". The Rockets may try and acquire a big man at the trade deadline or the buyout market and if he's good enough, it may thwart Hartenstein out of the rotation again. Hartenstein could also struggle and therefore, lose his backup center spot to the veteran combo of Tyson Chandler and P.J. Tucker. Things are fluid here.
3. Rockets climb to third seed in Western Conference and tie for the second
With the Rockets winning five out of their last ten games and the Clippers going .500 in their last ten, Houston has jumped Los Angeles to obtain the third seed seed in the Western Conference. Denver also lost to Washington Saturday night which means the Rockets are also tied with them for the second seed. The Nuggets currently hold the conference tiebreaker over the Rockets, meaning they will keep the second seed for now.
While this isn't a major development as seeding is still very fluid in the West (the Rockets are also two games away from falling to the sixth seed), it's still noteworthy. The Rockets will likely battle with Los Angeles and Denver for seeding until the bitter end of the season, so the fact that they're already within striking distance of the second seed means they won't have to make a dramatic surge like they did last season. It also hammers home how must-win every game for the rest of the season will be considering how tightly bunched the conference is.
Week of games in review:
It's hard to hold the Pelicans loss against the Rockets, considering they were without the services of James Harden, Russell Westbrook, and Clint Capela. However, Houston did a pretty good job bouncing back by convincingly beating two title contenders in the Nuggets and 76ers in consecutive games. It's not so much that they beat the Nuggets and 76ers that's impressive, but more how they won them. The Rockets had a defensive rating of 106.0 in both games combined, which would be good for a top ten defense in the league.
This is really the origin of a lot of people's skepticism with the Rockets. Everybody knows the Rockets will have a top three offense when it's all said in done, but it's their defense that will elevate them to a level formidable enough to actually win a title. Thus far, they've been mediocre which only gets you a hard-fought, second round exit. If they can carry this good momentum into the rest of the season, it'll be a lot easier to buy more Rockets stock.
Something the Rockets can cling to is that they haven't been healthy enough to show their true colors. Eric Gordon missed 23 games, Danuel House missed 6 games, Clint Capela missed 6 games, Russell Westbrook missed 4 games, and even James Harden missed a game. One could reasonably argue that the injuries to Gordon, House, and Capela specifically have prevented them from reaching their heights as a defense. For now, we can only judge the Rockets on what they've been so far.
Questions for the coming week:
1. Can the Rockets sufficiently blowout the Atlanta Hawks and Minnesota Timberwolves buzzer-to-buzzer?
The truest of contenders blow teams like the Atlanta and Minnesota out of the water by halftime. The Rockets this season have been the model of inconsistency against below .500 teams. Sure, they've had some blowouts, but they've also let some truly bad teams hang around and even beat them in the month of December (Warriors, Kings, Cavaliers, and Suns). These games may not seem important, but they're resume builders and can help build good habits to carry over against good teams. They're also important fourth quarter rest opportunities for Houston's starters.
2. Will Russell Westbrook rest on the first or second night of the back-to-back?
The Rockets have a road back-to-back this week against the Hawks and Thunder. Mike D'Antoni has said that Houston's plan is to rest Russell Westbrook on one of the games during back-to-back sets and he's stuck to that plan. What's interesting is the Rockets have been opting to rest Westbrook on the second night, but this isn't a normal back-to-back. Russell Westbrook will be returning home against his former team, the Oklahoma City Thunder. This brings to question of whether or not they break the habit and allow Westbrook to play in Oklahoma City and properly say goodbye to the fans that have adored him for the past decade. The Thunder are also the clear, tougher matchup between the two, so it also makes sense from a basketball perspective to break the established norm.
Well, I hope you enjoyed the first one of these. See you next week.
The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
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