Welcome. Let's talk Rockets.
State of the Rockets: Eric Gordon's back, signature victories, and more
Jan 5, 2020, 3:38 am
Welcome. Let's talk Rockets.
Introduction:
Hello, my name is Salman Ali and I cover the Houston Rockets. Most people reading probably already know this, but I feel like a proper introduction is in order. Every week, I go to the Toyota Center several times to cover Rockets' practices, games, and other miscellaneous team events. I notice things about the team and then proceed write about it, tweet about it, and even podcast about it.
However, I always feel I can do more, and that's what this is. Starting today, I will be writing a weekly column on the Rockets including random observations, pressing questions, general thoughts, and some statistics I can sprinkle in. I'm not quite sure how I'm going to go about this or even if there's going to be a specific format, but I guess that's what's fun about it. What I do know is that every Sunday there will be an article here on SportsMap about the Rockets.
So without further adieu, welcome to the very first 'State of the Rockets'.
Rockets' advanced stats (per cleaningtheglass.com):
Offensive RTG: 114.1 (3rd)
Defensive RTG: 109.2 (17th)
Net RTG: +4.9 (7th)
Biggest developments:
1. Eric Gordon's return to the rotation
Eric Gordon has returned the the rotation for the Rockets after receiving arthroscopy on his right knee in mid-November. The Rockets were careful in bringing Gordon back and originally placed him on a minutes restriction of 25 minutes per game, but that's now since bumped up to 30 minutes. As a whole, Gordon's played well since his return, scoring 14.7 points per game on 40.9 percent from beyond the three-point line.
The bigger story here is that the Rockets are fully healthy for the first time since the beginning of the season. It's hard not to be cautiously skeptical of the team's status as a tier one title contender this season, but Gordon is significant enough of a player to hold off on grandiose declarations about the team until he's become acclimated. Offensively, the Rockets were going to be awesome this season either way, but it's really the defense where Gordon has the potential to be a real game-changer. Without Chris Paul this season, the Rockets have not had a strong point-of-attack defense and Gordon provides Houston with someone other than Austin Rivers who can defend well on-ball.
Rockets Defensive RTG (last two games):
With Eric Gordon: 100.0
Without Eric Gordon: 109.6
The Rockets can also lower the load on players like James Harden and Russell Westbrook.
Splash Gordon Is Back! ☔️ https://t.co/2sh4pUwV3i— Houston Rockets (@Houston Rockets) 1577668384.0
2. Isaiah Hartenstein temporarily secures backup center spot
According to head coach Mike D'Antoni himself, 21-year-old center Isaiah Hartenstein has secured the backup center spot in Houston's rotation "for now". This has the potential to be a big development for Houston as they've struggled to find consistent play behind Clint Capela for months now, and Hartenstein has played well enough to warrant that spot (14.1 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks on 70.4% true shooting per 36 minutes). This also hopefully puts the bed the idea that Mike D'Antoni willfully ignores playing talented young players at every turn considering 3 of Houston's ten-man rotation is now under the age of 27 (House, Capela, and Hartenstein).
Of course, the caveat of all caveats here is "for now". The Rockets may try and acquire a big man at the trade deadline or the buyout market and if he's good enough, it may thwart Hartenstein out of the rotation again. Hartenstein could also struggle and therefore, lose his backup center spot to the veteran combo of Tyson Chandler and P.J. Tucker. Things are fluid here.
3. Rockets climb to third seed in Western Conference and tie for the second
With the Rockets winning five out of their last ten games and the Clippers going .500 in their last ten, Houston has jumped Los Angeles to obtain the third seed seed in the Western Conference. Denver also lost to Washington Saturday night which means the Rockets are also tied with them for the second seed. The Nuggets currently hold the conference tiebreaker over the Rockets, meaning they will keep the second seed for now.
While this isn't a major development as seeding is still very fluid in the West (the Rockets are also two games away from falling to the sixth seed), it's still noteworthy. The Rockets will likely battle with Los Angeles and Denver for seeding until the bitter end of the season, so the fact that they're already within striking distance of the second seed means they won't have to make a dramatic surge like they did last season. It also hammers home how must-win every game for the rest of the season will be considering how tightly bunched the conference is.
Week of games in review:
It's hard to hold the Pelicans loss against the Rockets, considering they were without the services of James Harden, Russell Westbrook, and Clint Capela. However, Houston did a pretty good job bouncing back by convincingly beating two title contenders in the Nuggets and 76ers in consecutive games. It's not so much that they beat the Nuggets and 76ers that's impressive, but more how they won them. The Rockets had a defensive rating of 106.0 in both games combined, which would be good for a top ten defense in the league.
This is really the origin of a lot of people's skepticism with the Rockets. Everybody knows the Rockets will have a top three offense when it's all said in done, but it's their defense that will elevate them to a level formidable enough to actually win a title. Thus far, they've been mediocre which only gets you a hard-fought, second round exit. If they can carry this good momentum into the rest of the season, it'll be a lot easier to buy more Rockets stock.
Something the Rockets can cling to is that they haven't been healthy enough to show their true colors. Eric Gordon missed 23 games, Danuel House missed 6 games, Clint Capela missed 6 games, Russell Westbrook missed 4 games, and even James Harden missed a game. One could reasonably argue that the injuries to Gordon, House, and Capela specifically have prevented them from reaching their heights as a defense. For now, we can only judge the Rockets on what they've been so far.
Questions for the coming week:
1. Can the Rockets sufficiently blowout the Atlanta Hawks and Minnesota Timberwolves buzzer-to-buzzer?
The truest of contenders blow teams like the Atlanta and Minnesota out of the water by halftime. The Rockets this season have been the model of inconsistency against below .500 teams. Sure, they've had some blowouts, but they've also let some truly bad teams hang around and even beat them in the month of December (Warriors, Kings, Cavaliers, and Suns). These games may not seem important, but they're resume builders and can help build good habits to carry over against good teams. They're also important fourth quarter rest opportunities for Houston's starters.
2. Will Russell Westbrook rest on the first or second night of the back-to-back?
The Rockets have a road back-to-back this week against the Hawks and Thunder. Mike D'Antoni has said that Houston's plan is to rest Russell Westbrook on one of the games during back-to-back sets and he's stuck to that plan. What's interesting is the Rockets have been opting to rest Westbrook on the second night, but this isn't a normal back-to-back. Russell Westbrook will be returning home against his former team, the Oklahoma City Thunder. This brings to question of whether or not they break the habit and allow Westbrook to play in Oklahoma City and properly say goodbye to the fans that have adored him for the past decade. The Thunder are also the clear, tougher matchup between the two, so it also makes sense from a basketball perspective to break the established norm.
Well, I hope you enjoyed the first one of these. See you next week.
Even though the 2024 Astros were only a pretty good team, capable of getting drummed out of the playoffs by any opponent, it’s still a bit of a shock to the system having the Astros’ season over well before the end of the first of week of October. Alas, seven consecutive trips to the American League Championship Series did not mean the Astros held the deed on a spot this year, or any going forward.
Early this year Jim Crane somewhat famously said that as long as he’s around the window of contention for the Astros will always be open. For the time being at least he’s absolutely right. The Astros still have a solid contender nucleus. If the Seattle Mariners add multiple significant quality players to their batting order for 2025 the Astros could be in big trouble, but unless the Mariners uncharacteristically step up there is no AL West foe that gives pause to whether the Astros are still an American League contender. That said, a contender is what they are. One of many. It hasn’t been a great team for two seasons now. There is nothing horrifying about that. If the Astros were to miss the playoffs entirely next year, it wouldn’t unstitch one thread from the wonderous run woven from 2017 forward.
Crane, General Manager Dana Brown and any others involved have an array of questions to answer. First on the minds of many is Alex Bregman. A six years or longer 150-mil plus contract for a soon-to-be 31-year-old Bregman coming off the worst healthy season of his career is not smart business. George Springer was a much better player his last two seasons with the Astros than Bregman has been the past two. Springer hit free agency when he was about six months older than Bregman is now. Springer is in decline and the two years remaining on the six year 150 million dollar deal he got from the Toronto Blue Jays look like a lot of sunk cost.
Bregman will seek more than six years, 150 mil. More power to him if he gets it, and there will be good teams in the market for a third baseman. Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez has been a better player than Bregman for five consecutive seasons. In April 2022 Ramirez signed a five year 124 million dollar extension with the Guardians. That will get him through his age-36 season. Last year Boston inked then 26-year-old slugging third baseman Rafael Devers to an 11 year 331 million dollar deal. Devers’s defense can be shaky but he’s been a better offensive player than Bregman four years running. Former superstar hot corner stud Nolan Arenado turns 34 years old in April. He’s been a mediocre player for two years now, but the St. Louis Cardinals are on the hook for 74 million over the next three years.
Buyer's remorse?
If Dana Brown thinks closer Josh Hader had a strong season, he’s mistaken. Citing Hader as having blown only three (it was actually four) saves is superficial, conveniently leaving out the fistful of games Hader gave up with ninth inning home runs in non-save situations. Owing him 19 million dollars for another four seasons is a terrible (and untradeable unless paying down a lot of it) contract for the Astros. Hader last had back-to-back excellent seasons in 2018 and 2019. He was awful in 2022, middling this year. Hopeful good news is that Hader was sensational in 2021 and 2023. An odd year beckons!
We’ll have much to address, analyze, and discuss through a huge Astros’ offseason which is off to an atypically early start. Do they put Framber Valdez on the trading block? Unless Valdez takes a short money extension, say, two years 50 million beyond his final salary arbitration season of 2025, hard to see the Astros committing big bucks long term to a 32-year-old pitcher (Framber’s age Opening Day 2026). His latest lousy postseason outing aside, Framber is quality and would command a solid return even as a one-season rental. Think a lesser version of Corbin Burnes who Milwaukee dealt to Baltimore last offseason for two excellent prospects and a draft pick. Of course, dealing Framber would punch a big hole in the Astros’ 2025 rotation, which beyond him has only Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco as solid guys going into the new campaign. Spencer Arrighetti has promise, but was 7-13 with a 4.53 earned run average. There is hope that Luis Garcia should be an okay back of the rotation starter coming off of his Tommy John surgery, but that’s at least as much hope as expectation. Who knows whether Cristian Javier pitches at all coming off of his Tommy John operation, and if so how well? Lance McCullers? Anyone can dream, I guess.
Do they try to off-load Ryan Pressly’s 14 million dollars salary (methinks yes but what’s the market, and would Pressly waive his no-trade clause)? That would help the re-sign Yusei Kikuchi Fund. What plausibility is there for a Kyle Tucker extension? Would he agree to rebate a million dollars for each weak postseason at bat? Kidding. Mostly. Then there’s third base if Bregman a goner, center field, will Jeremy Pena improve at all, and more. A piping Hot Stove it shall be.
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.