Welcome back. Let's talk Rockets.
State of the Rockets: Trade deadline fall-out, Russell Westbrook in open space, and more
Feb 9, 2020, 4:08 am
Welcome back. Let's talk Rockets.
Rockets' advanced stats (per cleaningtheglass.com):
As of two weeks ago:
Offensive RTG: 113.5 (T-4th)
Defensive RTG: 109.4 (15th)
Net RTG: +4.1 (8th)
As of this week:
Offensive RTG: 113.4 (5th)
Defensive RTG: 110.1 (15th)
Net RTG: +3.3 (10th)
Biggest developments:
1. Rockets trade Clint Capela for Robert Covington
If you'd like to read something more expansive about the trade, I graded it from Houston's perspective the day it went down.
The big story here is Houston's embrace of micro-ball. Yes, I've been saying that a lot and that's because I'm trying to make it a thing (and it's working).
Sound the #CacciolaAlert ... it's our man on Rockets Microball: https://t.co/V1wmZsDXdm— Marc Stein (@Marc Stein) 1581108181.0
But more importantly, I'm trying to give what the Rockets are doing the proper distinction it deserves. Don't let anyone tell you that what Houston is doing isn't unique or that it's been done before. While it's true that small ball isn't a unique concept in the NBA and teams employ it pretty regularly today. However, it's intellectually dishonest to suggest that a team has embraced ever embraced it to this extent.
Let's start with a more recent example in Golden State. Yes, the Warriors would play Draymond Green at center quite a bit. Things reached a tipping point in 2016-17 when the Warriors played Green over 500 minutes at the center position (21% of his minutes). However, the Warriors played the positional charade and always started Zaza Pachulia at center, even when they knew it wasn't their best lineup.
The Rockets have effectively thrown that charade out the window. Tucker has started in 12 games for the Rockets this season and with 29 games remaining, has played nearly 600 minutes at center (33% of his minutes). By trading Capela, Houston has told the world they will no longer start a traditional center for the rest of the season. The league hasn't seen anything like this before.
The reason I call it micro-ball is because it's literally too unprecedented to refer to it as something that's been done before. Even if they disagree with it, everyone around the league is paying a close eye to what Houston is doing for this closing stretch. Watching the Rockets is like watching an entirely new brand of basketball being born (and possibly dying, if this fails) before our very eyes.
2. The Rockets are switching everything again
This ties into trading for Clint Capela, but by playing five players 6'7" or shorter for 48 minutes a game, Houston's best strategy has been to go back to switching everything on defense. The last time the Rockets did this to success was two years ago when they had the 6th best defense in the NBA. After losing Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute in the offseason, Houston no longer had the all personnel play this way and therefore abandoned it a couple months into the season.
Since then, the Rockets have acquired Danuel House, Robert Covington, Austin Rivers, and Thabo Sefolosha. Theoretically, the Rockets now have the defensive versatility to play that way again. This really showed through against the Lakers where Houston started doing it again, mixed in with the occasional double team for Anthony Davis. The Rockets only allowed 18 points from the Lakers in the fourth quarter and posted a defensive rating of 108.0 (higher than Houston's season average).
It's unclear whether this style will help elevate them defensively, but it's very clear that what they were doing previously wasn't working (15th in Defensive RTG). Covington's addition is huge as his rotations and weak-side defense really help compensate for a lot of what the Rockets lack in defensive personnel.
3. Russell Westbrook is very good in open space
For the first time in his professional career, Russell Westbrook will be playing with four shooters spacing the floor around him at all times. This was not possible with Clint Capela as there was a big man in the lane at all times defending Capela's lob threat.
Even in Oklahoma City, the Thunder would run into this problem with Steven Adams. Now, not only does he not have to worry about the additional big, the Rockets actually have better shooters than Westbrook ever had in Oklahoma City. It's not a coincidence that Westbrook has rebounded his true shooting percentage to where it was two years ago. The Rockets have created an environment where both James Harden and Westbrook can succeed offensively.
Because the floor was so spread, Kyle Kuzma had no help defense on these two possessions near the rim. Westbrook sc… https://t.co/dTLqytKY2y— Salman Ali (@Salman Ali) 1581239876.0
Week of games in review:
The Rockets' Thursday night's matchup against the Lakers was just fun. Not only was it the perfect proving ground for Houston's new playstyle, it felt like a closely contested battle between two legitimate title contenders. Now, the validity to that statement can only be proven if Houston makes a strong post All-Star break run, but it just felt like a heavyweight matchup. The Rockets weren't rattled when the Lakers made runs and vise-versa.
The contrasting styles made for entertaining basketball and almost distracted you from Chris Webber on the broadcast and the TNT crew at halftime sounding like disgruntled players from the 1990s. Let's be clear: this game proves nothing. We need a larger sample size to see if Houston made the right call at the trade deadline, but it's certainly a nice reference point to keep in mind.
As for Houston's Friday night matchup against the Phoenix Suns, they looked like a team missing their second and third best players on the second half of a road back-to-back. It's not to excuse how sluggish they looked, but tired legs is the only way you can explain how poorly the Rockets shot the basketball (34.1% from the field) and executed defensively (126.6 defensive rating).
Questions for the coming week:
1. What shakes loose from the buyout market and can Houston capitalize on it?
At 6 foot 9 with a 7 foot 3 wingspan, Marvin Williams checked all the boxes for the perfect kind of addition Houston could make on the buyout market. Unfortunately for the Rockets, the Milwaukee Bucks swooped in and signed Williams pretty quickly, leaving the rest of the buyout market kind of barren and mysterious.
Tristan Thompson's a name that would make sense if he were bought out, considering his ability to play in a switching defense and play big off the bench if Houston needs him to. However, it's unclear of Thompson gets bought out and if he does, the Lakers and Clippers are also looking to be players on the buyout market with presumed interest in Thompson.
Perhaps center John Henson gets bought out by the Detroit Pistons and the Rockets sniff around. There's also a small possibility the Mavericks explore buyout talks with Courtney Lee considering he's completely fallen out of their rotation. Who knows, really?
The market looks pretty grim right now, but since Houston has two open roster spots, it's something to keep an eye on.
2. How strong can Houston close out before the All-Star break?
With Tuesday being their last game before a week off, Houston can see the finish line, but there are some tough obstacles to climb before they get there. The first being the Utah Jazz, a team the Rockets, strangely enough, haven't played yet this season. Rudy Gobert poses an interesting challenge to the micro-ball Rockets. The Lakers presented a tough battle on the glass with their size, but statistically the Jazz are an even better defensive rebounding team (5th in the NBA). Offensively, Houston should take advantage of making Gobert get out of the paint to defend P.J. Tucker, but we'll see.
The Celtics are also a team the Rockets haven't played yet this year. Boston's one of the few teams in the NBA that won't get flummoxed by Houston's new approach as head coach Brad Stevens is a really creative basketball tactician. With Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, and Jaylen Brown, the Celtics also possess the defensive versatility to match up with Houston's micro-ball unit. Smart has defended James Harden really well in the past, but Harden's pretty good at learning from his past battles and making the necessary adjustments in the next matchup.
Either way, fun week of games ahead for the Rockets.
Bruce Bochy doesn’t ever want the Texas Rangers to let go of those memories of their first World Series title.
“We just don’t want to lean on them,” said Bochy, whose first season with the Rangers ended with the first World Series championship for the 63-year-old franchise, and his fourth as a big league manager.
While Texas has the opportunity to be the first team in a quarter-century to win back-to-back world championships — the New York Yankees were the last, with three in a row from 1998-2000 — the Rangers aren’t even defending champs in their own division.
And they aren’t favored to win the AL West this season.
Houston is again the odds-on favorite in the division it has won each of the last six full MLB seasons since the Rangers finished on top in 2016. The Astros won their regular season finale last Oct. 1, matched Texas at 90-72 and won the AL West since they were 9-4 head-to-head.
The Astros have made the AL Championship Series the past seven seasons, even when not division champs in the 2020 season shortened to 60 games because of the pandemic. They made four trips to the Fall Classic and won two titles in that span.
Dusty Baker retired days after Houston lost ALCS Game 7 at home to the Rangers last fall, finishing with 2,183 wins over 26 seasons as a big league manager with five teams.
New Astros manager Joe Espada, their bench coach for six seasons, is certainly familiar with a lineup that has big hitters Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker, and a loaded starting rotation.
Espada isn't the division's only new manager. Ron Washington, who took the Rangers to their previous World Series in 2010 and 2011, was hired by the Angels, who still have Mike Trout but not two-way star Shohei Ohtani, now with the other team in Los Angeles.
Seattle again revamped its roster without big spending in free agency and hopes for a quicker return to the playoffs. The Mariners missed by one game last season, a year after its first postseason appearance since 2001.
And just like last year, the Athletics go into another season not knowing if it will be their last in Oakland.
HOW THEY PROJECT1. Houston Astros. Three-time Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander, reacquired in a deadline trade last July, will start this season on the injured list. But the 41-year-old’s IL stint is expected to be a short one. The Astros still have lefty Framber Valdez (12-11, 2.45 ERA, 200 strikeouts and a no-hitter) and right-hander Cristian Javier. Eight-time All-Star second baseman Altuve signed a new $125 million, five-year contract that goes through 2029. But two-time All-Star third baseman Bregman, the only other position player to make all seven ALCS trips, is at the end of a $100 million deal.
2. Texas Rangers. After going from six losing seasons in a row to a World Series title, the Rangers should be playoff contenders again. They return ALCS MVP Adolis García and most of the lineup that hit 233 homers and scored an AL-high 5.4 runs per game. But World Series MVP and AL MVP runner-up shortstop Corey Seager (sports hernia), Gold Glove first baseman Nathaniel Lowe (oblique strain) and All-Star third baseman Josh Jung (calf) missed significant time in the spring. All-Star right-hander Nathan Eovaldi tops a rotation still missing injured multiple Cy Young Award winners Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom.
3. Seattle Mariners. The front office put together a roster that might be better than last year, but everybody has to stay healthy. Seattle should be better offensively with the additions of Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger, Jorge Polanco and Luke Raley to go with young superstar Julio Rodriguez. If J.P. Crawford can replicate last season at the plate and Ty France returns to his 2021-22 form, the lineup will be deeper. Couple a better offense with one of the best rotations in baseball led by Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert, the Mariners should once again contend in the division.
4. Los Angeles Angels. They feel like they’re starting over yet again and still haven't been to the playoffs since 2014. Ohtani left after six seasons for a record $700 million with the perennially contending Dodgers. The Halos added almost nothing in free agency, only revamping their bullpen again and taking low-cost flyers on Aaron Hicks and Miguel Sano. Trout and Anthony Rendon are back, and an open DH spot will allow them to rest their injury-prone bodies more regularly. Their rotation is last year’s group minus Ohtani. The 71-year-old Washington brings a unique blend of expertise and enthusiasm, which should benefit an exciting crop of young talent ready to break through in the majors.
5. Oakland Athletics. This could be the final season playing at the Coliseum with a lease set to expire. So the A's are still trying to figure out where they will play beyond this year with a new ballpark and move to Las Vegas scheduled for 2028. Manager Mark Kotsay has been committed to keeping his team focused on what it can do to be better on the field after two years with a combined 214 losses (112 last season). The A’s acquired Ross Stripling from the San Francisco Giants and added Alex Wood to the rotation.
OLD SKIPPERSWhen the 74-year-old Baker retired, Bochy became the oldest manager in the majors. That lasted only a few weeks until the Angels hired Washington. Bochy will turn 69 on April 16, just 13 days before Washington turns 72. Bochy, with 2,093 wins going into his 27th season, is one of six managers with four World Series titles, his first three coming in San Francisco (2010, 2012 and 2014). Washington won a franchise-record 664 games in eight seasons with Texas from 2007-14. He was on Atlanta's staff the past seven years, and part of the Braves' 2021 World Series title.
RELIEF HELPSeveral new relievers are in the AL West, including hard-throwing lefty Josh Hader with the Astros, veteran right-hander David Robertson and former All-Star closer Kirby Yates in Texas, Gregory Santos and Ryne Stanek in Seattle and Robert Stephenson with the Angels.
Hader's $95 million, five-year deal was the biggest after becoming a first-time free agent. The 29-year-old, once in the Astros' minor league system, turned down a $20,325,000 qualifying offer from San Diego.