Russell Westbrook has returned to practice. Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images
State of the Rockets: We're back
It's been quite a while since I've been able to do one of these so excuse the rust. The NBA season is grinding back into gear within the bowels of Disney World and with that, we finally have new things to talk about in regard to the Houston Rockets.
So let's not waste any time and get into it.
Rockets' advanced stats (per cleaningtheglass.com)As of March 11th (day the season was suspended)
Offensive RTG:113.6 (3rd)
Defensive RTG: 110.2 (15th)
Net RTG: +3.4
What was Houston before the pause?
Good question - you tell me. The Rockets have been like four different teams within a season and it's hard to judge which one is the real Rockets. Normally, you never want to judge a team off of only their recent play, but Houston had such a drastic identify shift once they shifted to playing P.J. Tucker at center full-time. So in the micro-ball era of Rockets' basketball, the team has a record of 12-6, roughly equivalent to a 54-win playoff team. Here are their advanced stats:
Offensive RTG: 114.1
Defensive RTG: 110.8
Net RTG: +3.3
A 54-win team and +3.3 net rating is about what you'd consider on the lower end of title contenders, but respectfully still a contender. To put that into context, that's a higher win-percentage than Nuggets, Heat, Jazz, and Mavericks, but still lower than five other teams in the NBA. The net rating (the more important number) is still higher than the Jazz, Nuggets, Heat, and Thunder, but lower than six other teams including the Mavericks.
In summation, the micro-ball Rockets profile as a top four team in their conference and a low-end title contender.
What effect will the four-month layoff and bubble environment have on Houston?
Nick Wright IMPRESSIVE Daryl Morey said Rockets 'Have as Good a Chance as Anybody' to Win NBA Title www.youtube.com
This is really the million dollar question and when you ask seven different league people, you're likely to get seven different answers. My educated guess is that the Rockets will benefit from not having to play road playoff series, but other than that, they aren't more uniquely situated in the bubble than any other title contender. Rockets GM Daryl Morey has been pretty vocal about how he believes the Rockets will benefit from the extra training camp more than any other team.
"We had one of our very top players switched out for another very top player in Covington," Morey said before Friday's Rockets practice. "I think that is very hard to do in the middle of the season. So this allows us to get extra coordination."
However, when you ask national media types, they tend to believe Houston and their up-and-down style of play is advantaged in this environment. For example, Matt Moore of The Action Network said on my podcast earlier this month that he believes Houston's variance and three-point shooting lends itself to being better-suited for the bubble. This isn't the first time this opinion has been spouted. People are buying high on a bubble-championship for the Rockets right now.
Bovada is giving the Rockets the fourth best odds to win the NBA title right now at +1200 which feels insane, but I guess not so much when you consider both Los Angeles teams are still ahead of them.
How does Eric Gordon look?
For obvious reasons, most of the national chatter around the Rockets will be their micro-ball approach, and while that's a significant story, the biggest story remaining in Houston's season has got to be the health of Eric Gordon. This was by for Gordon's worst season in a Rockets' uniform (shot 37% from the field and 31.9% from three). He was clearly dealing with a knee issue that's plagued him all season and forced him to get surgery, but for the Rockets to reach their peak potential as a team, they need Eric Gordon of old back. This team philosophy falls apart without Eric Gordon being a dynamic slasher who can space the floor adequately for Russell Westbrook and James Harden.
It doesn't even matter if the Rockets choose to start Danuel House at small forward. We know by now that Eric Gordon is one of Houston's five most important players. Gordon will play in all of the key fourth quarters for Houston, he will their main secondary ball-handler, and he will need to hit threes at at least a 37% clip for a deep playoff run. A good Eric Gordon game gives the Rockets a feeling of invincibility they don't otherwise have.
"Everything's been good," Gordon said when asked about the knee before Monday's practice. "The explosion's been there. It's only been a week or so, but I've been looking forward to getting back into the fold of things."
Gordon had returned the game before the stoppage and has now had significant time off to heal that knee. According to Mike D'Antoni, he's been a standout in practice.
"He hasn't missed a rep," D'Antoni said earlier this month. "He looks good, he's shooting the ball extremely well. If you had to make an assessment of everybody, this is a big bonus for us. He's ready to go."
James Harden and Russell Westbrook make late entrances to Orlando
James Harden and Russell Westbrook were absent at the Rockets' first few practices in Orlando due to a family emergency and a positive coronavirus test respectively. It's been suggested that James Harden's absence from the early part of Houston's Orlando camp could be detrimental, but I remain skeptical. Harden's kept himself in good shape over the quarantine period and was even working out in the Toyota Center when he wasn't in the bubble.
James Harden has arrived in Orlando. https://t.co/C4fdbPoxZr— Salman Ali (@Salman Ali) 1594777489.0
Westbrook's late arrival is a little more complicated for a couple of reasons. First, he arrived a few days later than Harden and will only get about two practices in with the team before they play their first exhibition game. The Rockets still have plenty of time to get him acclimated, but it could be a little bit of time before he's in rhythm with the team again.
Also, we still don't quite know the long-term health effects of coronavirus. According to John Hopkins, COVID-19 can cause lung damage and breathing problems that exist long after recovery. You can see why this could prove to be problematic for a professional athlete. Fortunately, by his own account, it seems Westbrook only experienced a mild case of the virus. According to the limited research we have, milder cases are less likely to cause scarring in the lungs.
WIth that being said, it's still something important to monitor because we know very little about this virus and I'm not going to pretend to be a doctor.
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Through 20 games, the Houston Astros have managed just six wins and are in last place in the AL West.
Their pitching staff trails only Colorado with a 5.24 ERA and big-money new closer Josh Hader has given up the same number of earned runs in 10 games as he did in 61 last year.
Despite this, these veteran Astros, who have reached the AL Championship Series seven consecutive times, have no doubt they’ll turn things around.
“If there’s a team that can do it, it’s this team,” shortstop Jeremy Peña said.
First-year manager Joe Espada, who was hired in January to replace the retired Dusty Baker, discussed his team’s early struggles.
“It’s not ideal,” he said. “It’s not what we expected, to come out of the shoot playing this type of baseball. But you know what, this is where we’re at and we’ve got to pick it up and play better. That’s just the bottom line.”
Many of Houston’s problems have stemmed from a poor performance by a rotation that has been decimated by injuries. Ace Justin Verlander and fellow starter José Urquidy haven’t pitched this season because of injuries and lefty Framber Valdez made just two starts before landing on the injured list with a sore elbow.
Ronel Blanco, who threw a no-hitter in his season debut April 1, has pitched well and is 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA in three starts this season. Cristian Javier is also off to a good start, going 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA in four starts, but the team has won just two games not started by those two pitchers.
However, Espada wouldn’t blame the rotation for Houston’s current position.
“It’s been a little bit of a roller coaster how we've played overall,” he said. “One day we get good starting pitching, some days we don’t. The middle relief has been better and sometimes it hasn’t been. So, we’ve just got to put it all together and then play more as a team. And once we start doing that, we’ll be in good shape.”
The good news for the Astros is that Verlander will make his season debut Friday night when they open a series at Washington and Valdez should return soon after him.
“Framber and Justin have been a great part of our success in the last few years,” second baseman Jose Altuve said. “So, it’s always good to have those two guys back helping the team. We trust them and I think it’s going to be good.”
Hader signed a five-year, $95 million contract this offseason to give the Astros a shutdown 7-8-9 combination at the back end of their bullpen with Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly. But the five-time All-Star is off to a bumpy start.
He allowed four runs in the ninth inning of a 6-1 loss to the Braves on Monday night and has yielded eight earned runs this season after giving up the same number in 56 1/3 innings for San Diego last year.
He was much better Wednesday when he struck out the side in the ninth before the Astros fell to Atlanta in 10 innings for their third straight loss.
Houston’s offense, led by Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, ranks third in the majors with a .268 batting average and is tied for third with 24 homers this season. But the Astros have struggled with runners in scoring position and often failed to get a big hit in close games.
While many of Houston’s hitters have thrived this season, one notable exception is first baseman José Abreu. The 37-year-old, who is in the second year of a three-year, $58.5 million contract, is hitting 0.78 with just one extra-base hit in 16 games, raising questions about why he remains in the lineup every day.
To make matters worse, his error on a routine ground ball in the eighth inning Wednesday helped the Braves tie the game before they won in extra innings.
Espada brushed off criticism of Abreu and said he knows the 2020 AL MVP can break out of his early slump.
“Because (of) history,” Espada said. “The back of his baseball card. He can do it.”
Though things haven’t gone well for the Astros so far, everyone insists there’s no panic in this team which won its second World Series in 2022.
Altuve added that he doesn’t have to say anything to his teammates during this tough time.
“I think they’ve played enough baseball to know how to control themselves and how to come back to the plan we have, which is winning games,” he said.
The clubhouse was quiet and somber Wednesday after the Astros suffered their third series sweep of the season and second at home. While not panicking about the slow start, this team, which has won at least 90 games in each of the last three seasons, is certainly not happy with its record.
“We need to do everything better,” third baseman Alex Bregman said. “I feel like we’re in a lot of games, but we just haven’t found a way to win them. And good teams find a way to win games. So we need to find a way to win games.”