ALL-IN
Why Texans fans should take interest in historic odds, gambler or not
Aug 10, 2021, 6:00 pm
There'll be no stopping this Texans runaway train. Composite image by Jack Brame.
I'm not a gambler, well, not since I asked a certain former NFL quarterback for advice on a Super Bowl bet and he said, "Never bet against Tom Brady." So I loaded up on the Patriots and, damn you, Nick Foles, the Philadelphia Eagles and everything else that went wrong for me in 2018.
But I'm heading back into the sports betting octagon because I've found the ultimate mortal lock, the holy grail of sure things, a more guaranteed money-maker than opening a Chick-fil-A drive-through.
Bet against the Houston Texans in 2021.
The cashier's window opens Saturday when our lovable Texans open their exhibition season as 3-point underdogs against the Packers in Green Bay. Embattled quarterback Deshaun Watson is not traveling with the team. Even though many of the Houston players on the field won't see an opening day roster, they're Texans for now. I'm jumping on the Pack.
There'll be no stopping this Texans runaway train. My strategy for the 2021 season is to bet the money line against the Texans each game. I think they'll lose them all and become the first 0-17 team in NFL history. At least that's something, the biggest losers ever.
Vegas has the Kansas City Chiefs as the favorite to win this year's Super Bowl. The Chiefs are +450, followed by the defending champs Tampa Bay Buccaneers at +700. The NFL has 32 teams. Vegas has the Texans dead last at an exospheric +30,000. The exosphere is the last level of Earth's atmosphere before you enter outer space. In other words, Texans fans shouldn't make any Super Bowl travel plans.
Has there ever been a more dysfunctional team than our Texans? In the past 12 months, star quarterback Deshaun Watson demanded to be traded, then was sued by 22 women accusing him of sexual misconduct. That's like two entire football teams sacking him at the same time. They released J.J. Watt, Houston's most popular and honored athlete ever. They fired nut job coach Bill O'Brien and hired David Culley who was an assistant coach in the league for almost three decades without a head coaching interlude. He was never even a coordinator. In his defense, though, Culley does a dead-on impression of Floyd the Barber from the Andy Griffith Show when asked about Watson's status with the team.
That's just the on-field crazy. Behind the scenes, the Texans lost team president Jamey Rootes, the only adult in the front office since 2002. They fired popular and respected media director Amy Palcic and equipment manager Mike Parson. Team owner Cal McNair is ridiculed as a Hee Haw dunce, a total Jethro Bodine, by Houston media. Team v.p. of football operations Jack "Geppetto" Easterby is a weirdo. The Texans executive boardroom looks like the road company of One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest.
The Texans' fan base has thrown in the towel. Up to now, the Texans sold every ticket to every game since their inception two decades ago. Once boasting a season ticket waitlist 68,000 deep, it's likely the sold-out streak will end this season. You want season tickets? Call 832-667-2390. The Texans will hand-deliver them to you, probably with a thank you card – a good one from the card store, not aisle 7 at the supermarket.
Individual game tickets, once precious stocking stuffers, can be had for deep discounts on the secondary market. Tickets for decent seats at the Sept. 12 opener at NRG Stadium are going for $34 on StubHub. Tickets for the Carolina Panthers game on Sept. 23 are $32 and up.
The Texans aren't doing so great as road attractions, either. If you happen to be in Green Bay on Saturday, you can sit your butt in Lambeau for only $6 on StubHub.
The Texans open their regular season at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who finished a dreadful 1-15 last season. The Jaguars are favored by 3 points. How'd that happen? Unless the Earth falls off its axis, the Texans will be underdogs every game this year.
It's a good thing that the NFL isn't like soccer in England where the worst teams in the Premier League are "relegated" to a lesser league. If the NFL had that policy, the Texans might be playing in the XFL in 2022.
COVID-willing, the Texans will play 20 games this season. I'll be contacting a Realtor in River Oaks by Thanksgiving. Let's not ignore the elephant in the room: Deshaun Watson. Betting sites have Watson playing anywhere but Houston this season, with the Jets, Eagles and Broncos as possible new zip codes. The odds of Watson not starting a game for the Texans are -3,500, meaning you'd have to wager $3,500 to win $100. Don't do it.
It's also possible that Watson could be playing for the Mean Machine next season. As they used to say on the Jerry Lewis Telethon, let's go to the tote board. There are 22 civil cases and 10 criminal accusations staring at Watson. They're all active and grinding forward.
The NFL seems determined to stay out of the matter and keep Watson off the commissioner's exempt list unless something concrete happens, for example Watson pays off the accusers or he's indicted by a Grand Jury.
There's a saying in the legal world, a talented prosecutor can convince a Grand Jury to "indict a ham sandwich." An indictment is just a formal accusation that someone has committed a crime. An indictment is not a conviction. Watson would still be presumed innocent. I'm not saying that Harris County District Attorney Kim Ogg would use Watson as a political football, she's too above board for that. But Ogg does have history with Watson's attorney Rusty Hardin. They go back, look it up.
Disclaimer: my picks are not financial advice. They're for entertainment purposes only and if the Texans start winning games, stranger things have happened, they won't be so entertaining.
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Astros keep doing this, and it’s getting hard to ignore
Jun 25, 2025, 10:01 pm
While the rolling Astros have a week of possible World Series preview matchups against the Phillies and Cubs, it’s the Rockets who made the biggest local sports headline with their acquisition of Kevin Durant. What a move! Of course there is risk involved in trading for a guy soon to turn 37 years old and who carries an injury history, but balancing risk vs. reward is a part of the game. This is a fabulous move for the Rockets. It’s understood that there are dissenters to this view. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, including people with the wrong opinion! Let’s dig in.
The Rockets had a wonderful season in winning 52 games before their disappointing first-round playoff loss to the Warriors, but like everyone else in the Western Conference, they were nowhere close to Oklahoma City’s caliber. While they finished second in the West, the Rockets only finished four games ahead of the play-in. That letting the stew simmer with further growth among their young players would yield true championship contention was no given for 2025-26 or beyond.
Kevin Durant is one of the 10 greatest offensive players the NBA has ever seen. Among his current contemporaries only Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic make that list. For instance, Durant offensively has clearly been better than the late and legendary Kobe Bryant. To view it from a Houston perspective, Durant has been an indisputably greater offensive force than the amazing Hakeem Olajuwon. But this is not a nostalgia trip in which the Rockets are trading for a guy based on what he used to be. While Durant could hit the wall at any point, living in fear that it’s about to happen is no way to live because KD, approaching his 18th NBA season, is still an elite offensive player.
As to the durability concern, Durant played more games (62) this past season than did Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith, and Tari Eason. The season before he played more games (75) than did VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Alperen Sengun. In each of the last two seasons Durant averaged more minutes per game (36.9) than any Rocket. That was stupid and/or desperate of the Suns, the Rockets will be smarter. Not that the workload eroded Durant’s production or efficiency. Over the two seasons he averaged almost 27 points per game while shooting 52 percent from the floor, 42 percent from behind the three-point line, and 85 percent from the free throw line. Awesomeness. The Rockets made the leap to being a very good team despite a frankly crummy half-court offense. The Rockets ranked 21st among the 30 NBA teams in three-point percentage, and dead last in free throw percentage. Amen Thompson has an array of skills and looks poised to be a unique star. Alas, Thompson has no credible jump shot. VanVleet is not a creator, Smith has limited handle. Adding Durant directly addresses the Rockets’ most glaring weakness.
The price the Rockets paid was in the big picture, minimal, unless you think Jalen Green is going to become a bonafide star. Green is still just 23 years old and spectacular athletically, but nothing he has done over four pro seasons suggests he’s on the cusp of greatness. In no season has Green even shot the league average from the floor or from three. His defense has never been as good as it should be given his athleticism. Compared to some other two-guards who made the NBA move one year removed from high school, four seasons into his career Green is waaaaaay behind where Shae Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Devin Booker were four seasons in, and now well behind his draft classmate Cade Cunningham. Dillon Brooks was a solid pro in two seasons here and shot a career-best from three in 2024-2025, but he’s being replaced by Kevin Durant! In terms of the draft pick capital sent to Phoenix, five second round picks are essentially meaningless. The Rockets have multiple extra first round picks in the coming years. As for the sole first-rounder dealt away, whichever player the Rockets would have taken 10th Wednesday night would have been rather unlikely to crack the playing rotation.
VanVleet signs extension
Re-signing Fred VanVleet to a two-year, 50 million dollar guarantee is sensible. In a vacuum, VanVleet was substantially overpaid at the over 40 mil he made per season the last two. He’s a middle-of-the-pack starting point guard. But his professionalism and headiness brought major value to the Rockets’ kiddie corps while their payroll was otherwise very low. Ideally, Reed Sheppard makes a leap to look like an NBA lead guard in his second season, after a pretty much zippo of a rookie campaign. Sheppard is supposed to be a lights-out shooter. For the Rockets to max out, they need two sharpshooters on the court to balance Thompson’s presence.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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