WHAT'S AT STAKE?
If you think there's nothing on the line for Texans Week 1, consider this
Sep 8, 2021, 2:31 pm
WHAT'S AT STAKE?
The Houston Texans waited until now to announce that Tyrod Taylor will be their starting quarterback Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Shocker! You mean just because Taylor started every pre-season game, who took all the first-time snaps in practice, who's their only quarterback with experience who'll be active Sunday … you mean he's the starter for Game One?
What's the Texans' next stunner? That the weather forecast for Sunday will be toasty and the NRG Stadium roof will be closed?
The Texans' opener may break the record for earliest "must win" game in NFL annals. The team is skating on thin ice with fans, who think the owner is a dunce, his top adviser is a mystical nut job, the general manager and head coach are first-timers in their positions, and their gifted quarterback is either a serial sexual predator or the victim of one of the greatest extortion schemes in criminal history.
Sunday's game against the Jaguars looks like the easiest date on the Texans schedule. The game is in Houston. The Jaguars finished with a league-worst 1-15 mark last year. They have a new head coach and a rookie quarterback who hasn't exactly dazzled in pre-season games. The Jaguars were mocked during training camp for trying out Tim Tebow, which probably didn't sit well with the rest of their borderline players with actual football talent.
Here's how awful and hopeless the Jacksonville Jaguars are: they're "only" 3-point favorites to beat the Texans on the road in Houston.
If the Texans lose Sunday, all bets are off for the rest of the season (unless you take the under on everything). With season ticket sales slumping, many of the fans Sunday will be first-time, single-game ticket-buyers. First impressions mean a lot. If the Jaguars win, you know the expression … fool me once, shame on the Texans.
Fool me twice, in the words of Apollo Creed at the end of Rocky … ain't gonna be no rematch.
One dumb play call, there will be howling that David Culley is in over his head, no wonder no other team offered him a head coaching job in his three decades in the league.
Worst case scenario, one fumble or Pick Six by Taylor and the crowd will start chanting for wayward quarterback Watson. If No. 4 is on the sidelines and turns to acknowledge the cheers, all hell will break loose. You think the crowd at the ancient Roman Coliseum was bloodthirsty?
If the crowd learns that Watson is sitting upstairs in a luxury suite, fans may figuratively and literally turn their back on the team to salute Watson. That will be humiliating for the Texans. And tonight's lead story on SportsCenter …
The Texans would be smart to order Watson to stay home. If he does come to NRG Field, suggest he wears a fake mustache and sombrero. The best plan would be to book Watson a seat on Jeff Bezos' next rocket ship flight, and when the rocket gets close to the edge of outer space - keep going.
Now it's entirely possible (although Vegas thinks unlikely) that the Texans will beat the Jaguars on Sunday. If that happens, the team, coach Culley, owner Floyd the Barber, general manager Nick Caserio, quarterback Taylor and everybody in the organization will get a reprieve.
Coming off their bye week, the Texans host the Dolphins with big playoff implications at stake. A win over Miami paired with a Colts loss secures another playoff berth for Houston.
Injuries will be a factor in this contest, with guard Juice Scruggs (foot) expected to be unavailable and safety Jalen Pitre now out for the year with a pectoral injury.
The Texans will also be without LB Azeez Al-Shaair (suspension), but a glimmer of hope has arrived as LB Christian Harris has returned to practice after missing the entire season up to this point.
Houston #Texans Thursday Injury Report for Week 15 vs. the Miami Dolphins: pic.twitter.com/7cDUTFbFZV
— Houston Texans PR (@TexansPR) December 12, 2024
Left guard Kenyon Green has also returned to practice and could be available this Sunday as well. If he's not, look for Zach Thomas, who was claimed off waivers from the Patriots about a month ago, to step in. Offensive line play and protection in general will be a main area of focus once again, as the Texans are arguably the worst in the NFL in this category.
This is most damning set of stats I've seen regarding the #Texans offense.
From no. 1 to no. 20 - 4.7% gap
From no. 21 to no. 31 - 4.9% gap
From no. 31 to Texans - 4.9% gap
Last in blown blocks by more than 1 BB per game.
Last in QB pressures & 50 more BB+PR than any other team https://t.co/vwAS16Diay
— Adam Wexler (@AdamJWexler) December 11, 2024
As you can see from the graphic above, the Texans have blown a block or allowed a pressure on over 30% of their offensive plays, and the next closest team is the Bears at 25.4 %.
Speaking of blocking, the Texans face three of the best teams against the run down the stretch (Chiefs, Ravens, Titans). With that being the case, let's hope that Stroud and the Texans found some answers in the passing game during the bye week.
If the Texans can keep Stroud upright, perhaps we see a resurgence from Tank Dell, who has seemingly disappeared from the offense. Tank hasn't scored since October 13, and has only recorded one game with over 100 yards all season.
Swarm!
On defense, the Texans will have their hands full with the Dolphins explosive offense. Miami has scored 32 or more points in 3 of their last 4 games.
The Texans are averaging just under 24 PPG this season, so they could really use a breakout game from the offense to help cement a victory.
Houston has the best duo of pass rushers in the league, but they will be challenged against Tua Tagovailoa, who gets rid of the ball extremely quickly and accurately.
Tua also has two speedsters in Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle that can take a short pass to the house at any given moment. Speed could be the difference in this contest, but the Texans do have two corners in Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter that are both Top 3 in lowest catch rate allowed this year.
DBs with the lowest Catch Rate Allowed this season 🔒
1. Kamari Lassiter - 42.0%
2. Nate Wiggins - 43.8%
3. Derek Stingley Jr. - 44.6%
4. Donte Jackson - 49.1%
5. Kristian Fulton - 50.0%
6. Jakorian Bennett - 51.1%
7. Jaylon Johnson - 51.2%
8. Denzel Ward - 51.9%
9. Jaycee Horn… https://t.co/muJHduiHQn pic.twitter.com/nVJlKYsWwc
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) December 11, 2024
What does Vegas think?
The Texans are favored by 3 points and the total is set at 46.5, which is the third-highest this week.
Don't miss the video above as we break down this week's game, the final stretch of the season, and much more!
Also, be sure to watch Texans on Tap with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan live following every Texans game on our SportsMapTexans YouTube channel!