WHAT'S AT STAKE?
If you think there's nothing on the line for Texans Week 1, consider this
Sep 8, 2021, 2:31 pm
Losing to the Jaguars this Sunday would be a big deal. Composite image by Jack Brame.
The Houston Texans waited until now to announce that Tyrod Taylor will be their starting quarterback Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Shocker! You mean just because Taylor started every pre-season game, who took all the first-time snaps in practice, who's their only quarterback with experience who'll be active Sunday … you mean he's the starter for Game One?
What's the Texans' next stunner? That the weather forecast for Sunday will be toasty and the NRG Stadium roof will be closed?
The Texans' opener may break the record for earliest "must win" game in NFL annals. The team is skating on thin ice with fans, who think the owner is a dunce, his top adviser is a mystical nut job, the general manager and head coach are first-timers in their positions, and their gifted quarterback is either a serial sexual predator or the victim of one of the greatest extortion schemes in criminal history.
Sunday's game against the Jaguars looks like the easiest date on the Texans schedule. The game is in Houston. The Jaguars finished with a league-worst 1-15 mark last year. They have a new head coach and a rookie quarterback who hasn't exactly dazzled in pre-season games. The Jaguars were mocked during training camp for trying out Tim Tebow, which probably didn't sit well with the rest of their borderline players with actual football talent.
Here's how awful and hopeless the Jacksonville Jaguars are: they're "only" 3-point favorites to beat the Texans on the road in Houston.
If the Texans lose Sunday, all bets are off for the rest of the season (unless you take the under on everything). With season ticket sales slumping, many of the fans Sunday will be first-time, single-game ticket-buyers. First impressions mean a lot. If the Jaguars win, you know the expression … fool me once, shame on the Texans.
Fool me twice, in the words of Apollo Creed at the end of Rocky … ain't gonna be no rematch.
One dumb play call, there will be howling that David Culley is in over his head, no wonder no other team offered him a head coaching job in his three decades in the league.
Worst case scenario, one fumble or Pick Six by Taylor and the crowd will start chanting for wayward quarterback Watson. If No. 4 is on the sidelines and turns to acknowledge the cheers, all hell will break loose. You think the crowd at the ancient Roman Coliseum was bloodthirsty?
If the crowd learns that Watson is sitting upstairs in a luxury suite, fans may figuratively and literally turn their back on the team to salute Watson. That will be humiliating for the Texans. And tonight's lead story on SportsCenter …
The Texans would be smart to order Watson to stay home. If he does come to NRG Field, suggest he wears a fake mustache and sombrero. The best plan would be to book Watson a seat on Jeff Bezos' next rocket ship flight, and when the rocket gets close to the edge of outer space - keep going.
Now it's entirely possible (although Vegas thinks unlikely) that the Texans will beat the Jaguars on Sunday. If that happens, the team, coach Culley, owner Floyd the Barber, general manager Nick Caserio, quarterback Taylor and everybody in the organization will get a reprieve.
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The Astros closed out their latest road trip with a winning record, a feat made more impressive considering the turbulence at the back of the rotation. Brandon Walter and Ryan Gusto both endured rough outings, with Walter in particular getting tagged hard. Still, Houston salvaged the finale, thanks largely to Mauricio Dubón’s breakout performance. The utilityman launched two home runs to power an offense that’s quietly been heating up for weeks.
But even with a solid finish, not everything is trending upward.
Josh Hader, who’s been one of the game’s most reliable closers this season, has begun to show signs of vulnerability. He’s allowed a home run in three of his last six outings. While his overall numbers remain strong, the long ball—a problem that plagued him last year—is starting to creep back into the picture.
As the Astros return home, the schedule offers no breather. They’ll face the Phillies and Cubs before a brief trip to Colorado to take on the struggling Rockies. After that comes a marquee series against the defending champion Dodgers in Los Angeles. With three of their next four opponents being legitimate World Series threats, the coming stretch looms large.
Can the bats keep pace?
If the last month is any indication, the Astros have reason to feel optimistic. Christian Walker has started to show signs of life after a quiet start to the season, hitting .260 with a .762 OPS and five home runs over the past 30 days. José Altuve has been scorching with a .302 average and .901 OPS in that span, while Jeremy Peña has taken things to another level, batting .384 with a 1.009 OPS.
As a team, the Astros rank 7th in OPS, 5th in runs, 3rd in batting average, and 7th in home runs over the last 30 days. It’s a surge that’s come at the right time—and one they’ll need to sustain.
The injury picture is also starting to shift in Houston’s favor.
Cristian Javier threw a 20-pitch live BP today in West Palm Beach. According to Joe Espada, he was up to 95 mph.
Luis Garcia should throw a live BP next week.
Spencer Arrighetti is still not throwing off a mound yet.
Yordan Alvarez has not resumed hitting.
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) June 20, 2025
Joe Espada told The Athletic's Chandler Rome that Christian Javier recently threw a live batting practice session, touching 95 mph as he continues his return from Tommy John surgery. JP France has thrown multiple live BPs and could be ready to help if things continue to progress with his shoulder. Luis Garcia, however, remains further away despite undergoing surgery more than two years ago. He's expected to throw a live BP this week.
Spencer Arrighetti (thumb) should be able to return in August, and Lance McCullers has resumed throwing and is currently on the 15-day IL with a foot sprain.
The Astros are winning. The offense is rolling. The reinforcements are on the way. But with a brutal stretch looming, the team’s margin for error is about to be put to the test.
There's so much more to cover! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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