Texans 23, Bucs 20
Despite sloppy performance, Texans escape Tampa with win, AFC South title
Dec 21, 2019, 3:17 pm
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The Texans and Buccaneers played one of the most bizarre games of the season. The first half was a turnover filled mess. The second half was a more grind it out, conservative type of football. In the end, Jameis Winston's four interceptions gifted the Texans a 23-20 win over the Bucs and an AFC South title. The Texans were badly outplayed, but escaped with a victory. Here is how it all played out:
Offense
Positives: There weren't any.
Negatives: The Texans offense was simply ineffective for much of the game. They could not run the ball, and Deshaun Watson played another sub par game. Those are starting to mount late in the season; he has not played a good game since the New England win. He was 19 of 32 for 184 yards, no touchdowns and an interception. He was also sacked five times, most on him. He missed several open receivers throughout the game. Not really a negative, but it was expected: Will Fuller once again left the game with an injury, this time with a groin. Fuller just can't stay on the field. The first offensive possession yielded only a field goal despite great starting position due to an interception. In 15 games, the Texans have managed six points on their opening offensive drives. Duke Johnson had a bad fumble early in the second quarter. The Texans struggled against the Bucs defense and did not take advantage of all the early turnovers. They averaged just 2.6 yards per rush.
Defense
Positives: The game could not have started any better for the Texans, as on the second snap Bradley Roby picked off Winston and took it to the house for a 7-0 lead. Winston has now thrown picks on four of his last five opening drives. His second pick went to Justin Reid, who also ran it all the way back, but a penalty wiped the touchdown off the board. The Texans would settle for a field goal and a 10-0 lead with still more than 11 minutes left in the first. They followed up the two picks with a blocked field goal, their second in two weeks. They forced five turnovers in the game, including a clinching pick. In the first half alone, they picked off Winston three times, forced a fumble and blocked a field goal, and yet they were tied at 17-17. That is in part because of the poor offense, but also...
Negatives: Some of the same old ugly issues came up. They gave up huge plays on third down throughout the game, including on several third and longs. Tampa was 9 of 17 on third down for the game. They got almost no pressure on Winston until late in the game. They missed tackles throughout as well. They were lucky that many times Winston was inaccurate on some passes where he had wide open receivers. They failed to cover tight ends and backs out of the backfield, problems they have had all year. The reality is when the Bucs did not score, they stopped themselves with the turnovers or missed open receivers, or in some cases dropped passes.
Some extra thoughts
A positive: Bill O'Brien won his first challenge of the season! It overturned a big pass play near the end of the first half.
A negative: Rich Eisen, who was doing play by play, constantly kept mixing up names and really did as poor a job as any professional broadcaster on an NFL game this season. The entire crew was bad, but Eisen's inability to get basic names and facts straight was an outright embarrassment. Eisen in general is really good, but on Saturday he was pathetic.
The bottom line
Despite the offensive struggles, despite being badly outplayed, the Texans win the AFC South. They were outgained 426-229, averaged just 3.6 yards per play to Tampa's 6.1, and would have had no shot if the Bucs had not kept shooting themselves in the foot.
The good news is the Texans will be able to rest some key players next week and prepare for a home playoff game in two weeks. It's hard to have a lot of confidence in this group in the postseason, but they are AFC South champs again nonetheless. After winning 11 games last year, they will be 10-6 at worst against what was a pretty good schedule. Deshaun Watson will have to play much better in the postseason, and there are some things to clean up on both sides of the ball. But they are where a lot of teams would like to be - in the playoffs with a home game.
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Miami (6-7) at Houston (8-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST, CBS
BetMGM Odds: Texans by 3.
Against the spread: Dolphins 5-8; Texans 5-6-2.
Series record: Texans lead 8-3.
Last meeting: Dolphins beat Texans 30-15, on Nov. 27, 2022, in Miami.
Last week: Dolphins beat Jets 32-26 in OT; Texans were off, beat Jaguars 23-20 on Dec. 1.
Dolphins offense: overall (19), rush (24), pass (14), scoring (23).
Dolphins defense: overall (9), rush (7), pass (11), scoring (T14).
Texans offense: overall (18), rush (16), pass (17), scoring (11).
Texans defense: overall (5), rush (10), pass (7), scoring (T12).
Turnover differential: Dolphins minus-2; Texans plus-10.
Dolphins player to watch
QB Tua Tagovailoa, who has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL at throwing with anticipation and accuracy since he returned from a concussion in Week 8. Tagovailoa leads the NFL with a 73.8% completion rate and threw for 300 yards for the third straight game last week vs. the Jets. Tagovailoa is the first player in NFL history to have at least 40 pass attempts, multiple touchdown passes and no interceptions in three consecutive games within a single season.
Texans player to watch
QB C.J. Stroud has thrown for at least 225 yards in each of his six home games this season and is 11-4 in 15 starts in Houston, including the playoffs. He has thrown for 3,117 yards with 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions this season.
Key matchup
Houston RB Joe Mixon vs. Miami’s run defense. Mixon ran for 101 yards in Houston’s previous game for his seventh 100-yard game this season. He ranks third in the NFL by averaging 88.7 yards rushing a game. This week he’ll face a run defense that ranks seventh in the NFL by holding teams to 105.6 yards a game.
Key injuries
Miami LT Terron Armstead is dealing with a knee injury that limited him to just five snaps last week. He did not practice Wednesday… LBs Bradley Chubb (knee) and Cameron Goode (knee) could make their season debut, depending on how this week of practice goes, coach Mike McDaniel said. … WRs Tyreek Hill (wrist) and Jaylen Waddle (hamstring), RB Raheem Mostert (hip), and LB Anthony Walker Jr. (hamstring) were among those limited in practice Wednesday. … Houston S Jalen Pitre is expected to miss a second straight game with a shoulder injury. … DE Denico Autry was limited in practice Wednesday because of a knee injury.
Series notes
Houston won the first seven meetings in this series. … Miami didn’t get its first win against the Texans until a 44-26 victory in 2015. … The Dolphins have won the past two meetings. … These teams first met in the season opener in 2003 when Houston got a 21-20 win on a late field goal.
Stats and stuff
Three of Miami’s final four games of the season are on the road. … K Jason Sanders needs 13 points Sunday to reach 800. He also needs one field goal to reach 177, which would give him the second-most field goals made in franchise history. … TE Jonnu Smith needs 100 yards receiving to reach 792 and set a franchise record for most yards receiving by a tight end in a single season. Smith had three catches for 44 yards, including the game-winning TD vs. the Jets last week after having no receptions during regulation. … Tagovailoa needs a completion rate of 70% or better on Sunday to reach eight consecutive games completing at least 70% of his passes. That would tie him with Joe Montana (1989) and Drew Brees (2017-18) for the longest streak in NFL history. … The Dolphins gave up a season-high 402 yards to the Jets last week. Aaron Rodgers burned Miami’s pass defense for 319 yards, and Miami’s secondary allowed a combined 223 yards by Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. … Houston can clinch the AFC South title for the second straight year with a win and a loss by Indianapolis Sunday. … The Texans rank second in the NFL with 84 tackles for loss. … Their 42 sacks also rank second. … WR Nico Collins had eight receptions for 119 yards for his fourth 100-yard game this season in Houston’s previous game. He has had at least 75 yards receiving and a TD reception in each of his four home games this season. … TE Dalton Schultz had five receptions for 61 yards and a score in Week 13. He has had at least five catches in two of his past three games. … LB Azeez Al-Shaai will serve the first game of a three-game suspension for an illegal hit to the head of QB Trevor Lawrence Sunday. … DE Danielle Hunter is one of two players in the NFL this season with at least 15 tackles for loss (15) and 10 sacks (10 1/2). It’s his sixth career season with at least 10 sacks. He has eight tackles for loss and five sacks combined in his past three games. … DE Will Anderson has had a sack in his past two home games. … LB Henry To’oTo’o has had at least five tackles in four straight games. … CB Derek Stingley had his third interception of the season in his previous game. … CB Kamari Lassiter had a career-high eight tackles, including a tackle for loss in Week 13. … S Jimmie Ward has had an interception in his past two home games. He also had an interception in his previous game against Miami in 2022 while with San Francisco.
Fantasy tip
Collins has 456 yards receiving and four touchdown receptions in four home games this season.