THE PALLILOG
Texans-Jags leaves a lot to be desired, and George Springer may have gotten good news
Nov 6, 2020, 1:12 pm
Springer could be closer to a big payday. Photo by Bob Levey /Stringer/Getty Images
How Astros & Rockets fans could find themselves with more money in their pockets
Not the busiest of sports weeks around here. Or anywhere. If COVID had never happened or at least had magically disappeared back in the spring, we'd have the new NBA season underway. Alas, we'll have to wait until Christmas week to get pro hoops going again.
This Sunday's Texans at Jaguars matchup looms as one of the least interesting games in franchise history, if not one of the least interesting games in NFL history. Evidently Cal McNair doesn't see it that way. Suckling at the teat of in-house Texans Radio earlier this week, Cal termed himself "extremely optimistic" and opined that the rest of the season "is going to be fun." There's a difference between optimistic and detached from reality. I guess the rest of the season can be fun, given an alternative of being stuck in an elevator until Thanksgiving. Sunday's matchup is a pair of 1-6 teams going nowhere. Vastly more interesting matchups in the noon window Sunday include Ravens at Colts, Bears at Titans, and Seahawks at Bills.
The NFL trade deadline came and went with the Texans doing nothing other than trading a defensive lineman who never played a snap for them for a seventh round draft pick in 2022. Yippee! Whatever confused or inert state of the Texans' football operations at the moment, they didn't screw up the deadline. The Texans had very few players of any interest to anybody. If they could have given away wide receiver Kenny Stills for the more than three million dollars in salary cap savings that would have been gained, not doing so was stupid. I give the Texans the benefit of the doubt that no team wanted to pay Stills the balance left on his seven million dollar salary. If the best offer for Will Fuller was a fourth round pick, not dealing him was a reasonable call. If the Texans wouldn't take a third for Fuller? Silly. What other viable trade candidates did the Texans have that would generate A. interest and B. a worthy return? Answer: none other than J.J. Watt, who the Texans were presumably too scared to trade. As if the Texans' fan base would have marched on NRG Stadium in protest.
The old college try
Having a hard time getting engrossed in the college football season? Texas and the rest of the Big 12 are already essentially eliminated from any shot at the playoff. Texas A&M should win its next four games which would have the Aggies 8-1 heading to Auburn for their season finale. Clemson, Alabama, and Ohio State seem a cut above the field. 9-1 Aggies with the lone loss to Bama would have a better claim than undefeated Cincinnati or BYU. If an Ag wanting to think big, root for Florida to beat Georgia Saturday and for Trevor Lawrence-less Clemson to win at Notre Dame.
Meet the Mets?
The pandemic economy probably results in the Major League Baseball free agent market moving sluggishly. George Springer will certainly have his suitors. He may have gotten very good news with the final approval of the sale of the New York Mets to reeeeeally rich guy Steve Cohen. Reeeeeally rich meaning estimated net worth 14 billion dollars, by far the richest of all current MLB owners. Cohen did not buy a team for it to be a Big Apple afterthought to the Yankees. While the team was no good, the Mets actually got excellent outfield production in the shortened 2020 season. An important variable in a Mets' pursuit of Springer may be if and when this offseason the National League permanently adopts the designated hitter it used in 2020. Four good outfielders work just fine with a DH spot to be rotated among them.
Even if the Mets have no Springer interest, as I have noted before the Cardinals, Nationals, Giants, are all legit playoff hopeful teams and well-heeled franchises who would make sense. I presume Dallas Keuchel would agree that the White Sox would be a great fit. And never rule out the Yankees, though pitching should be their upgrade emphasis.
Writer Ben Reiter (he of the Astrodamus 2017 World Series Champs prediction) over the past six weeks has been releasing a podcast series called "The Edge" digging deeper into the Astros' cheating and culture of the era, in part wondering how he missed any clues about it while granted insider access in writing his "Astroball" book. Fired Astros General Manager Jeff Luhnow was the main subject this week. One nugget I found interesting/amusing: Luhnow says Jim Crane fired him in a 29 second phone conversation. That was January 13. They have not spoken since.
Buzzer Beaters:
1. It's not surprising that Houston weather is beautiful this time of year, but it sure is working out nicely for the first Houston Open at renovated Memorial Park.
2. George Costanza: "It's not a lie, if you believe it." George was full of it. Lies are lies.
3. Most famous clowns: Bronze-Krusty Silver-Ronald McDonald Gold-Bozo
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The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
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