DEALING WITH INJURIES
The Texans need great coaching for an evolving roster
Oct 31, 2018, 3:17 pm
Bill O'Brien will need to raise his game this week. Joe Robbins/Getty Images
Once again, the injury bug has hit the Texans. This time they are lucky it’s not the quarterback or the pass rushers. The problem this year is that injuries have hit positions without a lot of depth like wide receiver and cornerback. But here they are, sitting on a five-game winning streak and some folks thinking they can win the division. That can still happen, but they can’t afford to be patient with back-ups while they already have three losses. The coaches will have to be the first ones to step up and make sure there’s no dip in production while the roster reshuffles.
So, someone will have to convince Bill O’Brien that he needs to adjust his offense this week because Sammie Coates and Vyncint Smith are suddenly going to see more snaps. He’s probably all too happy to throw them and newly acquired Demaryius Thomas out on the field, but he will have to be smart with his play calling. Without adjustments for the other players, DeAndre Hopkins will have to work harder to get open. If he has to do it all then there’s little chance it will all get done. I shouldn’t doubt what he can do though.
We saw last year what this team is when injuries get the best of them and O’Brien doesn’t change up the way he coaches. The adjustments won’t have to be as dramatic as they were before, but the game plan can’t be the same as it was last week. He is going to have to put on a coaching performance that gets him in the top ten coach of the year candidates list. He’s going to have to keep adjusting in order to make sure his game plan works for whoever is on the field. He’s also going to have to make sure the rest of his staff does the same.
Romeo Crennel is going to have to put his thinking cap on extra tight this week. He will be without his last starting cornerback, Jonathan Joseph, because of an injury suffered against the Dolphins. It might only be one game, but it’s a game Houston can win if the defense can keep up its level of play. That means he is going to have to get creative again with the safeties and the coverages. If Case Keenum, or any future quarterbacks they face can read those coverages and attack these less than ideal corners with impunity then it’s going to be like shooting fish in a barrel.
There is going to be a lot on the position coaches this week too. They have just a short window to make sure these guys that will get more playing time know everything they need. That means every check, every adjustment and every nuance that needs to be executed. The margin of error will be razor thin and mental mistakes will have a bigger impact on the outcome of this week’s game.
The winning streak can extend to six if O’Brien and Crennel put together something spectacular with the planning and preparation before the game. Once the lights go on there is little they can do if the players have mental mistakes that lead to points for the other team. The Texans have a bye in Week 10 to give them some breathing room but a win this week in Denver will keep them in the driver’s seat for the division.
So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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