Camp Countdown

Texans training camp preview: Running backs

Brien O’Donal
Jul 18, 2018, 7:03 am
The Texans need more from Lamar Miller. Andy Lyons/Getty Images

As the Texans gear up for training camp there are still concerns about the group of running backs they have assembled. The group is mostly the same; led by Lamar Miller with back-ups Alfred Blue who was re-signed in the offseason and D’onta Foreman who will probably be on the Physically Unable to Perform List to begin the season. That leaves room for holdovers Tyler Ervin and Troymaine Pope as well as rookies Lavon Coleman or Terry Swanson to step up and earn some snaps. Competition will be fierce and there should be plenty to go around.

As a team the Texans finished the season just inside the top half of the league in rushing yards and just outside the top ten in attempts. But they were firmly near the bottom of the league with only eight rushing touchdowns for the season. An improved interior offensive line and a healthy Deshaun Watson will contribute to an improved running game but it might not be enough to make the run game a scary aspect of the offense.

Lamar Miller will still be the starter but a disappointing 888 yards with a 3.7 yards per carry average demonstrated a real need for improvement. That’s why D’Onta Foreman was a third-round draft choice last year and by Week 11 was ready to break out. His season ended that same week and it was up to Miller and Blue to finish it out.

Speaking of Blue, it was a little bit of a head scratcher when he was re-signed this offseason. In his four seasons he has demonstrated that he can be nothing more than a third or fourth option in the backfield. Maybe it was the injury to Foreman that caused the Texans to sign a familiar face but his one-year contract is cheap to get out of if he doesn’t out-perform those behind him on the depth chart.

Tyler Ervin played in only four games last year, almost exclusively on special teams before a torn patellar tendon ended his season. At the time he was averaging 18.6 yards per kick return and 7.5 yards per punt return. He will have a tough road ahead but he should be ready for the start of camp. If he can show the injury hasn’t slowed him down he might still make the roster as a kick returner, leaving the door open for one of the two rookies to fight for playing time.

Houston brought in undrafted free agents Lavon Coleman and Terry Swanson to round out the group this offseason. These might both be long shot guys when it comes to offensive carries, but special teams can always use players with their size and speed.

Coleman is a big guy with some ability to get outside and enough elusiveness to make a move. He will need to adjust to the size and power of NFL defenses but a good camp could get him in the role that Foreman was meant to play behind Miller.

Swanson is more a match for what Miller brings. He is a speedy guy with great vision who was a priority signing for Houston as soon as the draft ended. He shared his college backfield with last year’s breakout rookie Kareem Hunt and the Texans hope they can get something similar. It’s not out of the question for a good camp to jump him ahead of a player like Alfred Blue or Tyler Ervin.

What we know so far is that there is at least one more year of Lamar Miller leading this group. He is still in position to get a lion’s share of the work because the depth behind him is either unable or unknown. That’s not a good position to be in if you’re the Texans. There are still a few free agents who can help available to sign, the most notable being Adrian Peterson. I’m not sure I can even posture a guess at what they might do. There’s upside with the two rookies and a sense of patience with the recovery of D’Onta Foreman so all they need is to stay near the middle of the league and hope that the improved offensive line and return of Deshaun Watson make up the difference.

 

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KYLE TUCKER DEEP DIVE

Here's what the Astros should expect from Kyle Tucker after his breakout season

Tucker looks like the real deal. Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images

Kyle Tucker finally had his breakout season in 2020. The 23-year-old flashed potential to be a legitimate five-tool threat. He slashed .268/.325/.512, swiped eight bags, and played above average defense. Is Tucker's performance sustainable? Not only that, but is there room for growth?

Hard Hit % - 44.5%

Barrel % - 9.1%

K % - 20.2%

BB % - 7.9%
Chase % - 26.2%

The first thing to realize with Kyle Tucker is the small sample size at the MLB level. Despite appearing in three separate seasons, he's played in a total of 108 games, which is obviously quite a bit shy of even one full season. He also has an extremely unique swing that you wouldn't teach to anybody, but it "works" for him. This makes him a tough hitter to judge, as it's uncomfortable judging mechanics that work for him, and it's uncomfortable judging numbers that haven't had time to develop trends.

Hard Hit, Barrel, and Chase numbers are unavailable for the minors, but walk and strikeouts percentages are. This creates the ability to at least look at one trend.

Tucker broke onto the scene in 2018 with a monstrous season for AAA Fresno, the Astros affiliate at the time. In 2018, Tucker slashed .332/.400/.590 with 24 homers and 20 steals. He had an 18.1% K% and a 10.3% BB% that season. In 2019, Tucker struck out a little bit more (21.6%) but also walked a little bit more (11.2%). Tucker's 20.2% K% in 2020 is more in line with his minor league K%, indicating he's adjusted to major league pitching.

Tucker essentially put the pieces of contact ability and quality of contact from his previous MLB stints together in 2020. In 2018, Tucker didn't strike out very much (18.1% K%), but his 3.9% Barrel % didn't strike fear in any opponent.

In 2019, Tucker had a 12.8% Barrel %, and his 92 MPH average exit velocity is the best of his three seasons in MLB, but he struck out 27.8% of the time and walked just 5.6% of the time.

In 2020, there's a marriage between the two. His K% and BB% aren't as good as his 2018 marks, but they're better than his 2019 marks. His exit velocity and Barrel % aren't as good as his 2019 marks, but they're better than his 2018 marks. Tucker became a hitter that was able to do more damage without sacrificing consistency.

Tucker had a xBA of .267, which is right in line with his .268 average. His .459 xSLG lags behind his .512 actual SLG, but it isn't a catastrophic drop. The version of Tucker Astros fans saw is essentially who he is, but how does he improve?

What really unlocked Tucker in 2020 was a change in his setup.

Image via: GraysonSkweres/Twitter/Screenshot

Here he is on August 2nd against the Angels. As you can see, he's standing pretty straight up, and he has a "neutral" stance. Following the game on Aug. 2, Tucker was batting .200/.250/.300 with no homers.

Image via: GraysonSkweres/Twitter/Screenshot

Here's Tucker on August 6th, just a few days later. He's started to close off his stance just a bit, but he's still pretty neutral, and he has a little more forward body lean with his torso. Following the game on Aug. 6, he was batting .214/.267/.357 with a homer.

Image via: GraysonSkweres/Twitter/Screenshot

Now, here's Tucker on August 10th. His stance is considerably closed off, and he's maintaining the forward body lean he adopted on August 6th. Following the game on Aug. 10, Tucker was batting .190/.230/.328. It would be the last time any of those numbers would be that low the rest of the year. He maintained that stance for the rest of the season, and he finished the month of August hitting .272/.333/.588.

The swing change allowed him to be a factor on the outside pitch. Tucker would pull off on his front side, which made it tough for him to keep balls fair on the pull side. He'd often yank inside fastballs into the stands down the right field line. It also made him uncompetitive on outside strikes, as he'd either swing-and-miss, or roll them over into the shift.

After he made the change, Tucker started steering inside pitches fair, and he was able to do something with pitches on the outer third.

The next step is finding a way to continue to diversify his batted ball profile. Tucker's pull percentage in 2020 was 47%. That's a higher pull % than guys like Kyle Schwarber and Matt Olson. It was only 1% lower than Rangers outfielder Joey Gallo.

The one dimensional batted ball profile allows teams to shift Tucker aggressively. Teams shifted Tucker in 74% of his at-bats. His wOBA against the shift is .304. In AB's where teams didn't shift him, Tucker had a .455 wOBA. The shift hurts Tucker more than most as well, because he hits the ball on the ground 39% of the time. Gallo and Olson hit it on the ground 32% and 35% of the time respectively.

Lastly, Tucker's performance on breaking balls leaves a lot to be desired. He crushes fastballs, as he batted .303 with a .574 SLG against fastballs in 2020, with a .292 xBA and .528 xSLG. His .208 AVG and .396 SLG against breaking balls aren't very good, and his .209 xBA and .340 xSLG don't tell a prettier story. His 32% whiff % against breaking balls is nearly double his whiff % on fastballs.

If Tucker can learn to be more competitive against breaking balls and learn to use the whole field, then he'll be a really scary hitter. If he doesn't, teams will be able to gameplan for him, and he'll see streaky production similar to other one dimensional hitters like Matt Carpenter and the aforementioned Gallo and Olson.

While the bat may be streaky, Tucker brings it with the glove and on the bases. He had 5 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) in the outfield in 2020, a 0.6 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating), and he was plus-4 in Outs Above Average. His well above average speed and instincts give him the ability to be a rangy outfielder and dangerous baserunner.

Tucker had a breakout season in 2020, but there's still changes left to be made if he wants to be a breakout star and not a one hit wonder.

This is part four of an offseason series covering the 2020 Houston Astros. Be sure to check out parts 1-3 on SportsMap.

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