CHARLIE PALLILO
Texas college football is in a state of disarray
Nov 9, 2018, 7:42 am
Jimbo Fisher's first year looks a lot like the Aggies under Kevin Sumlin. Bob Levey/Getty Images
With the Texans enjoying their open week this could have been a weekend of major focus on college football in Texas. It is not. The Lone Star State is irrelevant to the national scene. That has been too true too often for almost a decade.
Texas A&M’s early season promise under Jimbo Fisher has faded, as did the Aggies themselves in fourth quarter curl up losses to fellow SEC also-rans Mississippi State and Auburn. Hiring Jimbo was a long term play for the Ags, but season one from the $75 million dollar man is a disappointment. Kevin Sumlin produced 5-4 records for a lot less money.
Just a couple of weeks ago Texas had risen to No. 6 in the country. The Longhorns were back! And in two snaps of the fingers they were gone again. Tom Herman made himself look ridiculous after UT’s back to back losses to Oklahoma State and West Virginia. If the Horns don’t beat Texas Tech in Lubbock Saturday they won’t even be in the Top 25 anymore, and Herman would clinch being two for two in producing unsatisfying seasons in Austin since his move from the University of Houston.
The Cougars are off a bad loss at SMU, basically ruining their major bowl hopes. The best program in Texas over recent years has been TCU. The Frogs have croaked their way to 4-5 this season. Texas Tech is Texas Tech. Rice may be the worst team in the entire FBS.
You can call it the Lone Star Sad State of college football.
Meanwhile the Texans sit quite happily at 6-3. Tennessee’s win Monday night at the Cowboys keeps the Titans viable, but they probably lose to the Patriots Sunday to fall to 4-5. Given their schedule the only way the Texans don’t win the AFC South is if they fade/collapse/choke. That would include losing at home to the Titans on the Monday night after Thanksgiving. Sunday’s Colts-Jaguars loser drops to 3-6 and can schedule an autopsy. The winner is 4-5 and would have a slim shot at beating out the Texans with a win in Houston mandatory.
Then there is America’s Team. What a punchline. I leave it to you to decide where the whole Make America Great Again thing stands, but making America’s Team Great Again? Pfffffffft. The Dallas Cowboys can spike television ratings and sell sponsorships and merchandise like no other, but on the field the Cowboys continue their near quarter century run of nothing. A likely loss at Philadelphia Sunday drops Dallas to 3-6, and makes Jerry Jones trading his 2019 first round draft pick for wide receiver Amari Cooper even more inane than it was at the time of the deal.
Reminder: since the Texans entered the NFL in 2002, they have never remotely approached elite franchise status. Playoff victories since the Texans started playing: Texans 3, Cowboys 2. Only the Texans have a legit shot to add to their number this season.
Disarmed
The expected bad news came down this week that Lance McCullers had Tommy John surgery and will not pitch again until 2020. It’s a bummer for Lance who loses out on millions of dollars, but for the Astros it’s far from devastating. Even before this outcome, counting on Lance for a full quality 2019 would have been stupid as he has yet to make it through a big league season healthy. McCullers’s stuff is electric, his competitive fire tremendous. But his results over the last two seasons have basically been average. The electric stuff should come back. Tommy John surgery and recovery are almost routine these days. The Astros can just look at what Nathan Eovaldi did to them (and to the Yankees and Dodgers) in the postseason. Eovaldi has had two Tommy John surgeries.
With Dallas Keuchel a near surefire departure via free agency and McCullers done for the next year, the Astros have spots to fill in the starting rotation, three if Charlie Morton isn’t back. Simply inking in Josh James for 150 quality innings would be silly, but the Astros don’t need Justin Verlander level results from him. Among James, Collin McHugh, Brad Peacock, and perhaps Framber Valdez the Astros have plentiful internal options. Perhaps Forrest Whitley gets back on track after his drug suspension and injury hindered 2018, and resumes the hoped for path for one of the very best pitching prospects in the game. If so, Whitley should debut with the Astros at some point in 2019.
Jeff Luhnow will almost certainly add at least one starter from the outside, perhaps a Morton type, meaning someone whose underlying data the Astros really like. Or perhaps the Alvin native Eovaldi considers defecting from the 2018 champs to the 2017 champs.
Buzzer Beaters
1. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado may sign for more than 600 million guaranteed between them. 2. Jim Crane’s group bought the Astros for 610 mil. 3. Greatest mega-purchases: Bronze-Alaska from Russia for two cents per acre. Silver-Louisiana Purchase from France Gold-Manhattan from Indians for $24 (even if apocryphal).
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Miami (6-7) at Houston (8-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST, CBS
BetMGM Odds: Texans by 3.
Against the spread: Dolphins 5-8; Texans 5-6-2.
Series record: Texans lead 8-3.
Last meeting: Dolphins beat Texans 30-15, on Nov. 27, 2022, in Miami.
Last week: Dolphins beat Jets 32-26 in OT; Texans were off, beat Jaguars 23-20 on Dec. 1.
Dolphins offense: overall (19), rush (24), pass (14), scoring (23).
Dolphins defense: overall (9), rush (7), pass (11), scoring (T14).
Texans offense: overall (18), rush (16), pass (17), scoring (11).
Texans defense: overall (5), rush (10), pass (7), scoring (T12).
Turnover differential: Dolphins minus-2; Texans plus-10.
Dolphins player to watch
QB Tua Tagovailoa, who has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL at throwing with anticipation and accuracy since he returned from a concussion in Week 8. Tagovailoa leads the NFL with a 73.8% completion rate and threw for 300 yards for the third straight game last week vs. the Jets. Tagovailoa is the first player in NFL history to have at least 40 pass attempts, multiple touchdown passes and no interceptions in three consecutive games within a single season.
Texans player to watch
QB C.J. Stroud has thrown for at least 225 yards in each of his six home games this season and is 11-4 in 15 starts in Houston, including the playoffs. He has thrown for 3,117 yards with 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions this season.
Key matchup
Houston RB Joe Mixon vs. Miami’s run defense. Mixon ran for 101 yards in Houston’s previous game for his seventh 100-yard game this season. He ranks third in the NFL by averaging 88.7 yards rushing a game. This week he’ll face a run defense that ranks seventh in the NFL by holding teams to 105.6 yards a game.
Key injuries
Miami LT Terron Armstead is dealing with a knee injury that limited him to just five snaps last week. He did not practice Wednesday… LBs Bradley Chubb (knee) and Cameron Goode (knee) could make their season debut, depending on how this week of practice goes, coach Mike McDaniel said. … WRs Tyreek Hill (wrist) and Jaylen Waddle (hamstring), RB Raheem Mostert (hip), and LB Anthony Walker Jr. (hamstring) were among those limited in practice Wednesday. … Houston S Jalen Pitre is expected to miss a second straight game with a shoulder injury. … DE Denico Autry was limited in practice Wednesday because of a knee injury.
Series notes
Houston won the first seven meetings in this series. … Miami didn’t get its first win against the Texans until a 44-26 victory in 2015. … The Dolphins have won the past two meetings. … These teams first met in the season opener in 2003 when Houston got a 21-20 win on a late field goal.
Stats and stuff
Three of Miami’s final four games of the season are on the road. … K Jason Sanders needs 13 points Sunday to reach 800. He also needs one field goal to reach 177, which would give him the second-most field goals made in franchise history. … TE Jonnu Smith needs 100 yards receiving to reach 792 and set a franchise record for most yards receiving by a tight end in a single season. Smith had three catches for 44 yards, including the game-winning TD vs. the Jets last week after having no receptions during regulation. … Tagovailoa needs a completion rate of 70% or better on Sunday to reach eight consecutive games completing at least 70% of his passes. That would tie him with Joe Montana (1989) and Drew Brees (2017-18) for the longest streak in NFL history. … The Dolphins gave up a season-high 402 yards to the Jets last week. Aaron Rodgers burned Miami’s pass defense for 319 yards, and Miami’s secondary allowed a combined 223 yards by Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. … Houston can clinch the AFC South title for the second straight year with a win and a loss by Indianapolis Sunday. … The Texans rank second in the NFL with 84 tackles for loss. … Their 42 sacks also rank second. … WR Nico Collins had eight receptions for 119 yards for his fourth 100-yard game this season in Houston’s previous game. He has had at least 75 yards receiving and a TD reception in each of his four home games this season. … TE Dalton Schultz had five receptions for 61 yards and a score in Week 13. He has had at least five catches in two of his past three games. … LB Azeez Al-Shaai will serve the first game of a three-game suspension for an illegal hit to the head of QB Trevor Lawrence Sunday. … DE Danielle Hunter is one of two players in the NFL this season with at least 15 tackles for loss (15) and 10 sacks (10 1/2). It’s his sixth career season with at least 10 sacks. He has eight tackles for loss and five sacks combined in his past three games. … DE Will Anderson has had a sack in his past two home games. … LB Henry To’oTo’o has had at least five tackles in four straight games. … CB Derek Stingley had his third interception of the season in his previous game. … CB Kamari Lassiter had a career-high eight tackles, including a tackle for loss in Week 13. … S Jimmie Ward has had an interception in his past two home games. He also had an interception in his previous game against Miami in 2022 while with San Francisco.
Fantasy tip
Collins has 456 yards receiving and four touchdown receptions in four home games this season.