Paul Gallant created a religion to worship Houston's greatest G.M.
The church of Jeff Luhnow
Aug 2, 2019, 7:51 am
Paul Gallant created a religion to worship Houston's greatest G.M.
For sports fans, nothing beats rooting for a sure thing.
Luckily for me, I've been #blessed #soblessed to grow up rooting for an actual demi-god: Thomas Edward Patrick Brady.
That beanie tho...
Elsa/Getty ImagesI know, I know. Some of you are frothing at the mouth. Others are experiencing heart palpitations, shuddering as you recall a handsome gunslinger carving up a one loss team that thought letterman jackets were a fantastic fashion statement. Or yo-
"Your lord and savior is a cheating fraud, PAWL."
SHUT UP.
Does being a disciple of the TB12 method mean that I'm more likely to marry a super model? Or that I'd have been a successful quarterback into my late 40s if coach had given me a shot (clearly he was racist against skinny paste bois)? Or that . . . I'm better than you?
Probably. But don't fault me for my parents arbitrarily decided to have the sex / children in the greater Boston area being one of the chosen people. Instead, focus on this: if you're an Astros fan, YOU TOO have a sure thing.
Jeff. Luhnow.
Look at that legend, wheeling, dealing, and acquiring aces for nothing
Photo by Bob Levey/Getty ImagesHe landed Justin Verlander – and a World Series trophy – by trading a can of pringles and an oatmeal crème pie cookie. He acquired Gerrit Cole for a box of Lunchables Pizza and a Capri Sun.
"Nearly 50% of what you just said was inaccurate to some degree, PAWL."
I'm not even close to done. He drafted Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman, and found Yuli Gurriel. He took flyers on the oft injured Charlie Morton and Michael Brantley, and got MVP worthy play out of both. He's fine tuned the use of analytics SO MUCH that the Astros are practically speaking a different language than all of baseball. ALL OF THIS helped slowly turn the Astros from a total laughing stock into the best organization in baseball.
And on Wednesday, Luhnow outdid himself again. He acquired Zack Greinke – 10-4 on the season with a 2.90 ERA - from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Yeah, sending over two former first round picks ('18's Seth Beer and '17's J.B. Bukauskas) along with Corbin Martin and Josh Rojas was a lot. BUT, when you consider that he was able to keep BOTH of the Astros top prospects – Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitley - this deal looks SIGNIFICANTLY more impressive.
Verlander. Cole. Greinke. And [arguably] the best lineup in baseball. Cancel the season. It's over. Go home.
I'm not a religious man. But Luhnow's greatness has touched something spiritually within me. And I want to share this feeling with ALL of you, through the power of worship. So guess what? I'm starting a religion. Introducing the Church of Jeff Luhnow.
Creating a religion is INCREDIBLY easy. Thanks internet! I became an ordained minister in less than five minutes here (and there are at least 10 alternative just as easy options) and filled out the necessary I.R.S. paper work (slightly more difficult since there are two forms to fill out) for tax exemption. Will I use all future tax-free donations for my own personal gain to spread the word of Luhnow? You bet!
Per the internet, it only takes about 5 steps to create a religion. They are as follows.
1. Choose a focus, a central theme, idea, or person.
This one is easy. Jeff Luhnow – our sweet bilingual Mexican-American prince – is our lord and savior. And through his wisdom, we shall walk the path behind him towards enjoyable October baseball every year.
2. Create a central belief system, consisting of 2 or 3 main dogmas.
We only need 3.
3. Create Rituals:
4. Pay attention to aesthetics, in terms of materials, symbols, etc.
Well, I did make a stained glass window of THE HOLY ONE for our future place of worship...
The perfect stained glass for your home!
Paul Gallant
…and this hat does make me look fat religious enough?
The Grand Tradesman himself.
Paul Gallant
5. Choose your own role. Who are you in this religion?
After atonement / self-flagellation for these two heretical takes on the Gallant Says podcast, I declare my self the High Tradesman of the Church of Luhnow.
So, my new Luhnow-niites, follow me to glory. Trades be with you.
Paul Gallant hosts the "Gallant Says" podcast (Tuesdays & Fridays on iTunes), "Just Sayin'", Friday nights at 10:30 CT on Kube 57, and contributes to SB Nation Radio. Want to get in touch with him? Get after him on Twitter, Instagram, or Facebook.
The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
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