THE AAC REPORT
The UH/AAC Report: rough week for some, cruise control for others
Sep 11, 2019, 7:11 am
As the AAC enters week two of the season, we start to see who's who. Some teams are challenged in ways others aren't by playing Power 5 schools. Others smash Group of 5 weaklings and continue to roll. When conference play starts, all that goes out the window. This week will see more tests and cupcakes for AAC teams.
UH outlasts PVU
The Cougars won 37-17 over a team they should've hung at least 50 or more on. The margin of victory should've been at least 30 or more. A team who fancies themselves as an offensive juggernaut has to do more against a much lesser opponent. The 24 points they scored in the first quarter was great, especially giving up only 3 points. But being outscored 14 to 13 in the remaining three quarters is awful. The Cougars are going to have to make some serious adjustments if they plan on being taken serious in Dana Holgorsen's first season as head coach.
Other key results
UCF 48, FAU 14: The Golden Knights continue to roll with an easy win over the fighting Lane Kiffins. Another 500+ yards of offense despite a -11 minute disadvantage in time of possession.
Auburn 24, Tulane 6: Holding a top 10 team under 30 points in a loss is considered a moral victory in my book. Coach Fritz continues to improve the Green Wave as they're a team to watch.
Memphis 55, Southern 24:The Tigers of Memphis are on a roll despite losing some NFL talent the last couple years. Southern gave them a bit of a fight, but they managed an easy win anyway.
Stars of the week
Xavier Jones, RB, SMU: Jones had 16 carries for 127 yards and three touchdowns in their 49-27 win over North Texas. The Mustangs are a passing team, but if the run game can produce like this, look out.
Gabriel Davis, WR, UCF: Although he ddin't have a touchdown catch, I think Davis is showing some NFL potential. Three catches for 98 yards is impressive when you see his 6'3 212lb frame going against college defensive backs.
Darius Pinnix Jr, RB, ECU: the 6'0 234lb bowling ball totaled 134 yards and a touchdown in a 48-9 win over Gardner-Webb. He's another NFL-sized guy going against smallish defenders and making it count.
5 games to watch this week
Houston vs Washington State
UCF vs Stanford
Temple vs Maryland
Tulsa vs Oklahoma State
ECU vs Navy
3 players to watch this week
D'Eriq King, Houston: Two pooor performances to start the season is uncharacteristic. Despite coming off ACL surgery, he should be showing better.
Gabriel Davis, UCF: Seeing him go against Power 5 defensive backs will be interesting. This whole offense should be watched to see how they'll perform.
Justin McMillan, Tulane: Coming off a loss to Auburn, Missouri State shouldn't provide much of a challenge for the Cedar Hill native.
As we barrel toward Opening Day which is now less than four weeks away, so far it’s been largely a case of no news is good news at Astros’ spring training. Meaning no major injuries to key players, no controversies brewing. There are numerous question marks that can’t truly be answered until we get into the games that count, such as how will Jose Altuve fare as a left fielder. The most exciting thing to happen over the first week of Grapefruit League games would probably be the two-home run game from top prospect Cam Smith, he of the Kyle Tucker trade. Both came off minor league caliber pitchers, but so what. Smith turned 22 years old last Saturday, the ideal is that he forces his way to the big leagues by the end of this season.
A strong majority of players who go on to greatness in Major League Baseball get to the big leagues before they turn 23. I spoke to this with Astros-specific perspective this week during an episode of our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. The ten greatest offensive players in franchise history as measured by Baseball Reference’s Wins Above Replacement metric are: Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, Jose Altuve, Lance Berkman, Cesar Cedeno, Jimmy Wynn, Jose Cruz, Alex Bregman, Joe Morgan, and Bob Watson. Eight of those ten debuted in the majors at 22 years old or younger. Cedeno was 19! Morgan and Watson were 20. Wynn and Altuve were 21. Biggio, Bagwell, and Bregman were 22. That leaves Cruz and Berkman as the exceptions. “Cheo” debuted with the Cardinals and didn’t get to the Astros’ organization until he was 27. Berkman arrived at 23. He should have been up sooner but was backlogged in 1998 behind a fabulous outfield of Moises Alou, Carl Everett, and Derek Bell, with youngster Richard Hidalgo as the top reserve, while first base was manned by Bagwell in the heart of his prime.
The point is, special talents should be fast-tracked and/or fast-track themselves to the Major Leagues. There are numerous exceptions (team mistakes, late bloomers), but a very high percentage of eventual big stars get to The Show at a young age. Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, and Mike Trout entered at 19. Ronald Acuna Jr., Vlad Guerrero Jr., Freddie Freeman, and Jose Ramirez did so at 20. Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Mookie Betts, and Yordan Alvarez were 21. Not all tear it up immediately the way Yordan did upon his promotion in 2019, but rare tools and talents merit accelerated opportunity. The focus here is on hitters, but this isn’t a bad spot to note that among the four greatest pitchers ever to hurl for the Astros, only Randy Johnson was older than 22 when he started (25 as a notoriously raw and wild Montreal Expo). Nolan Ryan was a 19-year-old New York Met, Roger Clemens a 21-year-old Boston Red Sox, and Justin Verlander a 22-year-old Detroit Tiger.
This is not predicting mega-stardom or a plaque in Cooperstown for Cam Smith, but if the Astros have such a player in what is presently a lousy farm system overall, the odds overwhelmingly favor Smith being that guy. He should be ticketed for double-A Corpus Christi to start this season after having had just 96 at bats in single-A and 19 at AA in the Cubs’ system after being drafted last July. Should Smith excel with the Hooks, it’s not preposterous to see him getting to the Astros over the summer, especially given the shaky state of the big club’s outfield going into the 2025 campaign. Plenty of players have skipped over AAA. While Smith was drafted as a third baseman, unless the Astros grow offensively desperate enough to move Isaac Paredes to second base, Smith’s fastest path to Daikin Park right now might lead to right field. Coming off a relentlessly bad 2024, it’s make-or-break time for Chas McCormick. Chas is making three-point-four million dollars this season and turns 30 in April. If he is not a heckuva lot better this year, there is no way the Astros are bringing him back at an even bigger salary number in 2026.
Jacob Melton is another outfield prospect, but he’s already 24 years old and has yet to show any sort of elite hitting traits in the minors. Melton looms as a cheaper replacement for Jake Meyers in center.
Those who will ultimately be great only have time siphoned from their careers when not brought up as soon as reasonable. Of course there is risk of unfulfilled potential or straight up bust status. If early failure crushes a player, he wasn’t headed for greatness anyway.
On the upswing
Closing aside: a pinging endorsement for the Astros’ Annual College Classic Friday through Sunday. The reigning national champion Tennessee Volunteers and runner-up Texas A&M Aggies head the field. Rice, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, and Arizona fill out what is always an excellent six-team event. With gorgeous weather forecast through the weekend the roof should be open throughout. RIGHT?
The countdown to Opening Day is on. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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