EVERY-THING SPORTS
This bold strategy for retooling the Texans would turn the roster on its head
Dec 22, 2020, 10:24 am
Cleaning up the mess O'Brien left behind will require some tough decisions. Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images
The Texans are a mess. Wait...that would be an understatement. They're more like a dumpster full of by-product outside a hot dog factory that's been sitting for six weeks after being flooded and set ablaze. Yes, it's that bad of a situation. They're devoid of talent, lack the draft picks to make up cheap labor, and have been left in a position of cap hell that's unavoidable. Any general manager that takes this job will need to be given a long leash in order to reshape this roster. Any head coach that comes in will need just as long a leash because he will be working with expired ingredients when he enters this kitchen.
Bill O'Brien did his best to hand out the worst possible contracts he could, it has put the team in a position to have to make some bold moves. While listening to The Press Box on ESPN Houston this Monday, Charlie Pallilo laid out a pretty bold move for the incoming Texans general manager (it starts around the 29:18 mark). Charlie thinks the incoming regime should make roster cuts this offseason in order to set themselves up for a breakout in the '22 season. Pallilo's idea of making several cuts to guys with bad contracts this offseason, and taking the dead money cap hit, it sets the team up to have more money to spend going into the '22 season when they'd also own a full complement of draft picks.
By cutting Whitney Mercilus, Randall Cobb, Eric Murray, Ka'imi Fairbairn, Benardrick McKinney, and Zach Cunningham, the team could open up around $16 million in cap space immediately despite the dead money they'd have to carry. In addition to these moves, he also suggested cutting J.J. Watt, if you can't find a trade partner, and rolling over his $17.5 million in salary to the '22 season in order to stay at the 90% money spent per collective bargaining agreement rules. Bold moves. Yes. But is it worth it?
Detractors would say don't do it. They'd argue you're setting yourself up for failure in the '21 season by getting rid of experienced guys and filling their roster spots with cheaper and possibly not as talented options. Why set yourself up for failure and absorb so much dead money in the '21 season? Why punt on the season without keeping those guys around? A team should always try to win no matter what. To them I'd say, kick rocks!
I was listening live when Pallilo laid out this plan and wholeheartedly agree with him. People need to come to grips with the fact that the '21 season will be a wash. This team isn't getting better heading into next season. They don't have the draft picks necessary to get game-changing young players on the cheap and shouldn't spend the cap space they have left trying to acquire players to fill the voids on this roster. This allows them to maximize their cap space heading into the '22 offseason after a presumably bad '21 season. That bad season in '21 also yields a full compliment of high draft picks that they could use to retool the roster more quickly. As bold as O'Brien was in making this team the laughingstock of the league, the incoming regime will have to be even more bold to turn this disaster around more quickly.
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So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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