SAY WATT?
Let's put this myth to bed regarding the Texans and JJ Watt
Feb 18, 2021, 4:42 pm
SAY WATT?
It's hardly a secret the Houston Texans have made more questionable decisions in the past two years than any other organization in the NFL.
From trading DeAndre Hopkins for an overpaid, underperforming running back to the speculated issues between Texans' ownership and all-world quarterback Deshaun Watson, it is understandable to question every move the team makes.
Here is a myth Texans fans should steer away from believing: theHouston Texans should've received SOMETHING for J.J. Watt.
First off, the Texans were two years late expecting to trade Watt for any decent return. The time was in 2018 when Watt's stock skyrocketed after injury plagued seasons in 2016 and 2017. Watt had 16 sacks in 2018.
Watt had compiled a long list of injuries up to 2018. In 2016, Watt had two back surgeries to repair herniated disks. In 2017, Watt underwent another surgery to repair a tibial plateau fracture in his left leg. There were plenty of rumors heading into the 2018 season regarding Watt being traded or even released. His All-Pro performance that year was a surprise, but brought a perfect opportunity for the Texans to flip Watt for a younger player or draft picks.
I'm sure Texans fans can guess who botched that one. The off-season heading into 2019 saw Texans ownership fire general manager Brian Gaine, and presented head coach Bill O'Brien with full control over every move the franchise made. It was also the off-season when Jack Easterby joined the Texans fold.
It wouldn't come as a surprise if the O'Brien-Easterby duo was unfamiliar with the phrase 'buy low, sell high'. Every move they made proved to be the complete opposite. A losing formula for sure.
What could the Texans have gotten for Watt after the 2018 season? Most likely a first-round pick.
The fact is, there was no one calling for J.J. Watt after the 2020 season. Which would you rather have? A beat up jalopy or a brand new Dodge Ram? Exactly. NFL executives would want the Ram, too.
But couldn't the Texans at least receive a 5th or 6th round pick for him?
No. In 2021, NFL franchises see more value in young, 6th rounders with ANY potential then J.J. Watt, a jalopy that had zero sacks and three tackles in his last two playoff appearances in 2015 and 2018. The next team that Watt goes to will obviously be a contender. Then why doesn't he consider signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? Watt's contract will be short-term and earning near the league minimum.
While the rolling Astros have a week of possible World Series preview matchups against the Phillies and Cubs, it’s the Rockets who made the biggest local sports headline with their acquisition of Kevin Durant. What a move! Of course there is risk involved in trading for a guy soon to turn 37 years old and who carries an injury history, but balancing risk vs. reward is a part of the game. This is a fabulous move for the Rockets. It’s understood that there are dissenters to this view. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, including people with the wrong opinion! Let’s dig in.
The Rockets had a wonderful season in winning 52 games before their disappointing first-round playoff loss to the Warriors, but like everyone else in the Western Conference, they were nowhere close to Oklahoma City’s caliber. While they finished second in the West, the Rockets only finished four games ahead of the play-in. That letting the stew simmer with further growth among their young players would yield true championship contention was no given for 2025-26 or beyond.
Kevin Durant is one of the 10 greatest offensive players the NBA has ever seen. Among his current contemporaries only Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic make that list. For instance, Durant offensively has clearly been better than the late and legendary Kobe Bryant. To view it from a Houston perspective, Durant has been an indisputably greater offensive force than the amazing Hakeem Olajuwon. But this is not a nostalgia trip in which the Rockets are trading for a guy based on what he used to be. While Durant could hit the wall at any point, living in fear that it’s about to happen is no way to live because KD, approaching his 18th NBA season, is still an elite offensive player.
As to the durability concern, Durant played more games (62) this past season than did Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith, and Tari Eason. The season before he played more games (75) than did VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Alperen Sengun. In each of the last two seasons Durant averaged more minutes per game (36.9) than any Rocket. That was stupid and/or desperate of the Suns, the Rockets will be smarter. Not that the workload eroded Durant’s production or efficiency. Over the two seasons he averaged almost 27 points per game while shooting 52 percent from the floor, 42 percent from behind the three-point line, and 85 percent from the free throw line. Awesomeness. The Rockets made the leap to being a very good team despite a frankly crummy half-court offense. The Rockets ranked 21st among the 30 NBA teams in three-point percentage, and dead last in free throw percentage. Amen Thompson has an array of skills and looks poised to be a unique star. Alas, Thompson has no credible jump shot. VanVleet is not a creator, Smith has limited handle. Adding Durant directly addresses the Rockets’ most glaring weakness.
The price the Rockets paid was in the big picture, minimal, unless you think Jalen Green is going to become a bonafide star. Green is still just 23 years old and spectacular athletically, but nothing he has done over four pro seasons suggests he’s on the cusp of greatness. In no season has Green even shot the league average from the floor or from three. His defense has never been as good as it should be given his athleticism. Compared to some other two-guards who made the NBA move one year removed from high school, four seasons into his career Green is waaaaaay behind where Shae Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Devin Booker were four seasons in, and now well behind his draft classmate Cade Cunningham. Dillon Brooks was a solid pro in two seasons here and shot a career-best from three in 2024-2025, but he’s being replaced by Kevin Durant! In terms of the draft pick capital sent to Phoenix, five second round picks are essentially meaningless. The Rockets have multiple extra first round picks in the coming years. As for the sole first-rounder dealt away, whichever player the Rockets would have taken 10th Wednesday night would have been rather unlikely to crack the playing rotation.
VanVleet signs extension
Re-signing Fred VanVleet to a two-year, 50 million dollar guarantee is sensible. In a vacuum, VanVleet was substantially overpaid at the over 40 mil he made per season the last two. He’s a middle-of-the-pack starting point guard. But his professionalism and headiness brought major value to the Rockets’ kiddie corps while their payroll was otherwise very low. Ideally, Reed Sheppard makes a leap to look like an NBA lead guard in his second season, after a pretty much zippo of a rookie campaign. Sheppard is supposed to be a lights-out shooter. For the Rockets to max out, they need two sharpshooters on the court to balance Thompson’s presence.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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