SAY WATT?

Let's put this myth to bed regarding the Texans and JJ Watt

J.J. Watt
Why didn't they trade him? Photo by Bobby Ellis/Getty Images
Chiefs once again remind Texans what a real championship contender looks like

It's hardly a secret the Houston Texans have made more questionable decisions in the past two years than any other organization in the NFL.

From trading DeAndre Hopkins for an overpaid, underperforming running back to the speculated issues between Texans' ownership and all-world quarterback Deshaun Watson, it is understandable to question every move the team makes.

Here is a myth Texans fans should steer away from believing: theHouston Texans should've received SOMETHING for J.J. Watt.

First off, the Texans were two years late expecting to trade Watt for any decent return. The time was in 2018 when Watt's stock skyrocketed after injury plagued seasons in 2016 and 2017. Watt had 16 sacks in 2018.

Watt had compiled a long list of injuries up to 2018. In 2016, Watt had two back surgeries to repair herniated disks. In 2017, Watt underwent another surgery to repair a tibial plateau fracture in his left leg. There were plenty of rumors heading into the 2018 season regarding Watt being traded or even released. His All-Pro performance that year was a surprise, but brought a perfect opportunity for the Texans to flip Watt for a younger player or draft picks.

I'm sure Texans fans can guess who botched that one. The off-season heading into 2019 saw Texans ownership fire general manager Brian Gaine, and presented head coach Bill O'Brien with full control over every move the franchise made. It was also the off-season when Jack Easterby joined the Texans fold.

It wouldn't come as a surprise if the O'Brien-Easterby duo was unfamiliar with the phrase 'buy low, sell high'. Every move they made proved to be the complete opposite. A losing formula for sure.

What could the Texans have gotten for Watt after the 2018 season? Most likely a first-round pick.

The fact is, there was no one calling for J.J. Watt after the 2020 season. Which would you rather have? A beat up jalopy or a brand new Dodge Ram? Exactly. NFL executives would want the Ram, too.

But couldn't the Texans at least receive a 5th or 6th round pick for him?

No. In 2021, NFL franchises see more value in young, 6th rounders with ANY potential then J.J. Watt, a jalopy that had zero sacks and three tackles in his last two playoff appearances in 2015 and 2018. The next team that Watt goes to will obviously be a contender. Then why doesn't he consider signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? Watt's contract will be short-term and earning near the league minimum.

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Gerrit Cole and Hunter Brown share the same agent now. Composite Getty Image.

There's no denying that this year's World Series champs (LA Dodgers) have some serious firepower on their roster. And one of the ways they were able to assemble such a talented team involved players like Shohei Ohtani being willing to differ their money.

Just this week, there was some speculation that the Yankees could do something similar when restructuring Gerrit Cole's contract, that would allow them more flexibility in the present.

The Yankees ended up calling Cole's bluff about opting out, and no adjustment was made to the contract.

But this situation got us thinking, would the Astros consider a tactic like this to maximize the roster? At this point, it doesn't seem all that likely. Just last year, the team handed out a $95 million contract to Josh Hader, without any differed money.

The other factor that also has to come into play is the tax threshold. The organization would have to give the okay to go over it again in order to make a splash signing this offseason. Which unfortunately does not sound like the plan right now when listening to GM Dana Brown at the Winter Meetings.

Astros pitcher hires a new agent

Now that MLB free agency is in full swing, most of the attention moving forward will be focused on players like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Juan Soto.

But for Astros fans, there might be someone else to keep an eye on this offseason and next. Starting pitcher Hunter Brown quietly hired super agent Scott Boras recently.

With Brown still another season away from his first year of arbitration, he should be with the Astros for the foreseeable future.

However, the hiring of Boras does raise some interesting questions. Why make the move now? Certainly, Brown could use some more cash, as he's set to make less than a million in 2025.

Perhaps Brown wants to land some HEB commercials to fatten his wallet. And if Bregman does leave the team in free agency, a spot will open up for another player, in theory. And three of the players in the HEB ads are represented by Boras (Jose Altuve, Lance McCullers Jr. and Bregman).

Jeremy Pena has been stacking cash from Taquerias Arandas for several years now, maybe Brown would like an opportunity to do an endorsement similar to that.

I say all this half kidding, but Brown does look like the future ace of this staff, and I'm sure there are plenty of advertisers that would have interest in Hunter.

There is another element that could have initiated the hiring of Boras. Would Brown be willing to sign an extension early with the Astros similar to the deal the team made with Cristian Javier?

Their situations are actually pretty comparable, except Javier was one year further into his career (3 years of MLB service time) and eligible for arbitration before agreeing to the extension.

If Brown was heading into arbitration this offseason, it wouldn't be surprising at all for the Astros to be considering a long-term deal with him that buys up all his arbitration years. The 'Stros love these types of contract extensions. We've seen them do it with Bregman, the aforementioned Javier, and others.

One of the main differences though between Brown and Javier is their rookie year numbers. Brown only pitched 20.1 innings in his first season (2022). While Javier pitched 54.1 innings his rookie year. However, his rookie season was in 2020, so Javier completed a full year of service time despite the shortened season. Whereas Brown didn't get called up until September 2022.

Another difference is performance. Javier never posted an ERA over 3.55 in his first three seasons. As opposed to Brown, who had a disastrous year in 2023. He made 29 starts, recording an ERA over 5.

It wasn't until May of 2024 that Brown started using his two-seam fastball with great success and becoming one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League.

The Astros had a bigger sample size to judge Javier. However, if Brown has another quality season in 2025, Houston and Brown should definitely be having conversations about an extension. Especially with Framber Valdez being in the final year of his contract in 2025. Hunter could be the unquestioned ace one year from now.

Still, though, there are some concerns with handing out these early extensions. For example, if the Astros had it to do over again, would they still extend Javier?

After receiving his extension before the 2023 season, he went on to post the highest ERA of his career (4.56), and then blew out his elbow in May 2024.

And if we're going by Luis Garcia's recovery timeline from Tommy John surgery, we may not see Javier pitch at all in 2025.

So even with a sample size of three terrific seasons, the Javier extension looks like a miss with the benefit of hindsight. It will be interesting to see if that deal impacts Dana Brown's decision-making going forward.

Especially since Javier was Dana's first big contract extension as the Astros GM.

Be sure to watch the video as we discuss how the Astros can get the most out of their roster, the pros and cons of signing Hunter Brown early, and much more!

*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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