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Tyron Woodley returns to the Octagon. Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images
UFC 228 is one of those rare double-title fight cards. Beyond that it is a little sparse on competitive matchups, but there are a few fighters who are definitely worth watching.
The main event is for the welterweight title, featuring the return of Tyron Woodley. Woodley hasn’t been the most beloved champion, as he has had awkward fights (draws and wins) over Stephen Thompson and Demian Maia. He has gotten away from his power-punching ways and has become more of a counter-striker, which isn’t exactly fan-friendly. His opponent, Darren Till, also holds a win over Thompson. Till’s fight wasn’t much more exciting than Woodley’s fights with Wonderboy. Till’s biggest issue to date has been his inability to make weight. He wasn’t close on the scale in his last fight, and if he misses again, he not only loses his title shot, but also will probably be pushed up to 185 permanently. Till may be the more aggressive of the two fighters, but I think going five rounds after a tough weight cut will be problematic for him.
The co-main is for the women’s strawweight title. Nicco Montano holds the title, and most people aren’t taking her seriously. She won her title on The Ultimate Fighter, but to her credit, was an underdog in all of her fights on the show. Her opponent, Valentina Schevchenko, is much more experienced, much more successful and has seen significantly better competition. Montano will likely be the biggest underdog champion in UFC history, likely to open up around +850. While that number doesn’t accurately show what a live underdog she can be, I have a hard time seeing her being more than a footnote on a long Schevchenko title run.
My must-watch fighter on the card is Zabit Magomedsharipov. He has been a force since his arrival on the UFC roster, and was supposed to see an uptick in competition on this card, but Yair Rodriguez pulled out of the fight. He is a high-volume striker who also throws in strong grappling and submissions. There really isn’t much he hasn’t shown to be good at. Instead of Rodriguez, Brandon Davis gets the call. He got to the UFC through Dana White’s Contender Series, and this will already be his fourth fight of 2018. He is aggressive and unafraid, which should lead to, at a minimum, an exciting fight with Magomedsharipov.
While we are talking about exciting fights, Niko Price and Abdul Razak Alhassan is the top contender for fight of the night. Both men are power punchers and proven finishers. In his last fight, Price finished Randy Brown with hammerfists from his back, easily one of the highlight moments of the year. Alhassan has finished nearly all his fights by first round knockout, though his one loss came when Omari Akhamedov survived that initial flurry. Price has proven hittable, as Alex Morono had him nearly finished in the first round, before eventually getting the knockout himself late. It would shock me if this fight went the distance.
The prelims feature Tatiana Suarez, Jimmie Rivera, John Dodson and a solid matchup between Aljamain Sterling and Cody Stamann. Texan Geoff Neal also has a spot on the early prelims.
PREDICTIONS:
Woodley def. Till by DEC
Schevchenko def. Montano by DEC
Magomedsharipov def. Davis by SUB
Kowalkiewicz def. Andrade by DEC
Alhassan def. Price by KO
Suarez def. Esparza by DEC
Sterling def. Stamman by DEC
Dodson def. Rivera by DEC
Byrd def. Stewart by SUB
C. White def. Sanchez by KO
A. White def. Miller by TKO
Aldana def. Pudilova by DEC
Brooks def. Sanchez by DEC
Neal def. Camacho by DEC
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Keeping Richardson contained on Sunday will go a long way in increasing the Texans' chances of coming home with a win. The Texans defense will have their hands full containing the Colts backs and tight ends in the passing game.
Scoring touchdowns with their wide receivers could prove difficult, as the Texans allowed the second-fewest TDs (10) to the receiver position in 2023.
Limiting running back Jonathan Taylor will also be a top priority. While the Texans had an elite defense against the run last season, they struggled with Taylor in Week 18 as he almost rushed for 200 yards.
Houston's D allowed only four carries to running backs in 2023 that went for 20 or more yards. Two of which were to Taylor in the final game of the regular season.
Finally, DeMeco Ryans and company have to find a way to get pressure on the QB. They only had one QB hit and zero sacks on Richardson and Garner Minshew the first time they faced off last year.
On offense, the Texans have two big x-factors to watch for on Sunday. The offensive line that suited up to play the Colts in Week 2 last season is completely different from this year.
The o-line was ravaged with injuries to start the 2023 campaign, so we expect a big jump in productivity in the trenches this year.
Another big addition in 2024 is the presence of running back Joe Mixon. The running game only produced 2 yards per rush in Week 2 against Indy last year, so there's clearly room for improvement.
Be sure to watch the video above for our in-depth preview of Texans-Colts!
And catch Texans on Tap (a Texans podcast) live on our SportsMapTexans YouTube channel following every game this season!