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Astros should avoid Justin Verlander at all costs, here's why
Nov 10, 2021, 11:47 am
Loyalty is a big thing to me. Photo by Elsa/Getty Images.
Justin Verlander
You've read the headline and are probably thinking to yourself: "Has Jermaine lost his damn mind?!?" No. I can assure you I haven't. I feel what I feel and said what I said. With that in mind, hear me out:
Justin Verlander is a generational talent. He's one of the pictures you see in the baseball dictionary when you look up definitions like ace, hoss, or throwback starter. There aren't many of his kind left. Specifically speaking, he's one of the last of the dying breed of starting pitchers who will consistently throw 180 plus innings every year, can pitch on short rest in postseason, wants the ball in pressure games, will fight his way out of tough spots as opposed to being taken out, and can actually maintain velocity in the later innings. Long story short: he's one of the gold standards when looking for a top line starter for a rotation.
Verlander is set to test the free agency waters this offseason after his two year, $66 million dollar extension expired. The other day, less than a week after his team lost the World Series, he held a workout for over half the league. Reports said that Verlander's velocity on his fastball was in the 94-97mph range. There were also reports stating he's looking for more than a one-year deal, possibly two or more. The Astros have extended a one-year qualifying offer around $19 million. The thought is that he's ready to move on from Houston and take his talents to the highest bidder contender. Mind you, he hasn't been around the team all season, or last season. He chose to rehab and stay away. So when the guys allegedly opted to not have him throw out the first pitch during the playoffs, I agreed one thousand percent.
One of the main reasons I don't want Verlander back is loyalty. Loyalty is a big thing to me. I've been the victim of disloyal friends, family members, coworkers, etc. When you're betrayed by people you thought would be in your corner and have your back no matter what, it changes you, especially when you're dealing with some of life's craziest curveballs. I've dealt with disloyalty while dealing with deaths of loved ones. I've endured tragedy and had people turn on me in the midst of it. These kinds of things reveal who your real friends and family members are because they stick with you no matter what. Family isn't always blood related. There are some family you gain because they show what Verlander hasn't: loyalty in the face of a storm. Going through all the things I've dealt with has made my circle so small, I almost cut myself off.
Meanwhile, the Astros are coming off their fifth consecutive ALCS appearance and third World Series appearance in five years. Despite all their recent success, this team is set to lose yet another high-end free agent. Not just any high-end free agent, but one who has a first ballot Hall of Fame résumé. They're also losing a player who plays one of the positions they can't afford to lose: frontline ace. While their pitching staff can still be of quality, it's nowhere near what it could be with Verlander as the captain of the ship. I'm willing to move on from him anyway because like the great American poet Shawn Carter once said: "When the grass is cut, the snakes will show."
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The NFL Draft, NBA playoffs, and NHL playoffs all dwarf baseball in the sports pecking order this week, but that doesn’t detract from the Astros playing their best stretch of baseball in the still young season. Following up taking two of three from the previously sizzling hot Padres by sweeping the Blue Jays three straight has the Astros’ record at a just fine 13-11 as they open a three-game weekend series in Kansas City. 13-11 may not sound special, because it isn’t, but having come home from St. Louis last week with the record at 8-10 makes 13-11 a quality leap. Plus, a 13-11 pace over 162 games extrapolates to 87 wins, which last season were enough to win the American League West and for an AL Wild Card spot.
Batter up!
While no one will be confusing the potency of this Astros’ lineup with those of the 2017 or 2019 juggernauts, some welcome perking up may have kicked in, despite Yordan Alvarez still not getting rolling. After Joe Espada gave Christian Walker a “mental rest” game off Monday, Walker produced a three-hit game Tuesday and a two-hit follow-up Wednesday, including a home run. Walker’s .202 batting average and .640 OPS are still lousy, but a much lesser grade of lousy than the statistical abyss he was in starting the Toronto series. Yainer Diaz has been much worse than Walker to this point. Diaz managed at least one hit in all three games of the Jays series. Baby steps. He is still sitting on an unacceptable three walks in 78 plate appearances.
Speaking of hits and walks, Jeremy Pena carries a 14-game hitting streak into the weekend. One-quarter of the way to Joe DiMaggio’s big league record! Willy Taveras set the Astros’ record with a 30-gamer back in 2006. Pena hasn’t been crushing it during the streak, during which he has just two multi-hit games. He’s had stretches where he has hit better and slugged harder (2022 postseason anyone?), but while too small a stretch to declare a leap has been made, it is noteworthy that over the 14 games Pena has drawn six walks. That gives him eight free passes in 24 games this season. More math fun! That’s one walk drawn per three games, which over 162 games would make for 54. Last season in 157 games played Pena drew a paltry 25 walks. Add in that his defense has been superb so far this season with a number of fabulous plays made and just one error committed, and Pena could be making modest offensive improvement that makes him a meaningfully better player.
Furthermore speaking of hits and walks, it’s been a struggle on both fronts the last couple of weeks for Jose Altuve. A two-week funk does not represent a crisis, but there are troubling trends that bear watching as Altuve sets to turn 35 years old May 6. Over his last 14 games, Altuve’s OPS is a sub-Maldonadian .547. In this stretch he has two doubles as his lone extra base hits and drawn just two walks. Altuve has struck out 22 times in 24 games. Setting aside the short 2020 COVID season when Altuve never got it going, last year he had the worst strikeout percentage of his career, while his walk rate was his worst since 2015. So far this season, Altuve’s strikeout rate is more than 20 percent worse than last year’s, with his walk rate down 30 percent from 2024. He is hitting line drives at a much lower rate than ever before, and struggling to get the ball in the air. The season still isn’t 20 percent old, but since Altuve last season finished with his lowest OPS (.790, again, exempting 2020) since 2013, and his current .728 OPS is 62 points lower than that, the antennae of at least mild concern are up. This is the first season of Altuve’s five-year 125 million dollar contract extension. Remember, the Astros would not offer Kyle Tucker a contract that took him to age 35.
Bringing the heat!
Hunter Brown makes his next start Sunday in Kansas City. Good luck Royals! Until getting a doubleheader against the pathetic Rockies Thursday, K.C. was averaging under three runs per game. Brown's earned run average through five starts is 1.16! It's waaaaay early to focus on this, but the best season ERA for an Astro pitcher who qualified for the statistical lead (one inning pitched per team game played) belongs to Nolan Ryan who posted a 1.69 in the strike-shortened 1981 season. Over a full-schedule season, Justin Verlander's 1.75 in 2022 is the standard. Brown has fired 24 consecutive shutout innings. Ryan Pressly holds the Astros’ record with 38 consecutive scoreless innings pitched. Orel Hershiser set the Major League record by finishing the 1988 regular season with a ridiculous 59 straight shutout innings. Yes he won the National League Cy Young Award. The Cy Young is strictly a regular season award. Hershiser in 1988 also won the League Championship Series Most Valuable Player Award, and World Series MVP.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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