It may not have a name but a tropical disturbance will bring heavy rain this week

Heavy rain on the way (again)

National Weather Service Houston

So here we are a whole four days into hurricane season and we are already talking about a tropical thing in the Gulf of Mexico. The blob currently designated as Invest 91L (an Invest is an area of interest the National Hurrican Center is watching for potential development) at one point looked as though it had a chance to develop into some kind of organized system now looks like it will remain an amorphous blob. However don't let its nameless status fool you. 91L is going to be a player in our weather as it will bring heavy rain over the course of the next couple of days. So what is the story? Lets dive in...

WHY: A large area of low pressure has been in the southern Gulf of Mexico for a couple of days now slowly drifting toward the east Mexican coast far south of Brownsville. While at one time it looked like this system could develop enough to acquire the characteristics of a minimal named tropical storm (minimum winds of 39 MPH) it now appears time is running out for that to happen. To use a analogy - the system has been like a car sputtering its engine over the past few days never really able to get going. Now that it is approaching the coast it has run out of roadway to get the wheels turning. However, even though the engine may not be running very well there is still a ton of fuel (moisture) in the tank. That fuel is leaking out and being pushed our way. While this may not be the most scientifically accurate analogy I think it sums up the situation in a mostly understandable way.

Over the next two days a couple of features in the upper atmosphere, one to our west and one to out east, are going to create a windfield that will funnel the moisture from 91L into Southeast Texas.


Model showing movement of atmospheric moisture (called precipitable water moving into Southeast Texas between today and late Wednesday night. Redder colors indicate higher moisture.Weathermodels.com

The area of low pressure that is 91L combined with an area of low pressure off to our northwest will help provide the lift necessary to turn all of this moisture into rain. With that being the set up here is what you can expect.

WHEN: Rain showers could start as soon as this evening or late tonight and will continue throughout the day on Wednesday and probably into Wednesday night. By mid day Thursday things should be quieting down. Timing of the heaviest rains is going to be difficult to pin down but right now it looks like Wednesday morning is the currently the favored time (unfortunately for rush-hour), however this could easily change.

WHERE: All of the area will probably see rain from this event but amounts will be less further inland and increase as you get closer to the coast. These tropical air masses are notorious for dropping high accumulation bulls-eyes in isolated spots but those exact locations are nearly impossible to predict. If I were placing a wager I'd say the heaviest rain from this event will be most likely somewhere close to and south of the HWY 59 corridor.


Heaviest rain probably somewhere along and south of the red line

HOW MUCH: There has been some disagreement among the various computer models about how much rain we can expect out of this system. Some are showing as little as 2-3 inches while others are showing 5-7 inches with scattered bulls-eyes of 9-12 inches.


GFS (American) model of foretasted rainfall totals through Thursday evening.Weathermodels.com


European model showing foretasted rainfall totals though Thursday evening.Weathermodels.com


NAM (North American Model) showing foretasted rainfall totals through mid-day ThursdayWeathermodels.com

Usually when there is a big split in the models we like to hedge and forecast somewhere in the middle. However with a very moist tropical air mass like the one coming in, my personal thought is that the totals will be a little higher than what the middle ground would suggest. In my estimation 4-6 inches seems like a good guess south of 59 with 2-3 inches north of 59. But if you happen to get caught under a particularly heavy storm those totals could well be exceeded. While rain totals are the sexy stat around here these days, this is going to be another event where the rainfall rate is going to be the real issue. Rain will not be constantly falling for 36 hours, instead there will bands of rain that come through with breaks in between. However within those bands we may see multiple inches fall in a short period of time. As a general rule most of our streets are designed to handle 1-2 inches of rain per hour. However this system has the potential to produce rainfall rates of 3-4 inches per hour. Again not everyone will see that kind of rain dump, but someone probably will, we just cant say who exactly. With those kind of rainfall rates street flooding could be come an issue. I do not anticipate this being a major damaging flood event but I think street flooding is possible if not likely in some areas so you should just be mindful of that fact and plan accordingly, especially if the timing happens to coincide with rush hour. I know "Turn around don't drown" has become a tired phrase around here, but seriously don't drive through water, more often than not it is higher than you think it is.

I will be back with an update tomorrow morning. In the mean time feel free to find me on Twitter @stephenuzick for more weather stuff or if you have any questions.

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After the big offensive showing to take the opener on Thursday, the Astros entered Friday's game at Globe Life Field against the Rangers just one win or Angels loss away from securing their spot in the playoffs. Here is how the game unfolded:

Final Score (10 innings): Rangers 5, Astros 4.

Record: 29-29, second in the AL West.

Winning pitcher: Brett Martin (1-1, 1.98 ERA).

Losing pitcher: Enoli Paredes (3-3, 3.05 ERA).

Urquidy goes seven while allowing two

The Rangers would strike first in Friday's game, getting a two-out solo home run against Jose Urquidy in the bottom of the second to grab the early 1-0 lead. Urquidy did relatively well on the night, though he would allow another solo homer in the bottom of the fifth. Those were the only two runs he allowed, working in and out of some trouble throughout the game on his way to finishing seven innings. His final line: 7.0 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 2 HR, 98 P.

Houston grabs their first lead late

Unlike their hot night at the plate the night prior, it took the Astros until the fifth inning to get on the board. It came after Carlos Correa hit a leadoff single, then came all the way around to score on an RBI-triple by George Springer, making it a 1-1 tie at the time.

After the Rangers went back in front 2-1 in the bottom of the inning on their second solo homer of the night, Alex Bregman would tie it up again with a solo home run of his own, making it 2-2. Houston would get their first lead of the night in the top of the eighth, with Altuve working a leadoff walk before scoring later in the inning on an RBI-single by Yuli Gurriel.

Rangers get the walk-off to keep Houston waiting for playoff bid

After Urquidy, Blake Taylor would take over on the mound in the bottom of the eighth, retiring the Rangers in order for a scoreless inning to hold the one-run lead. Still 3-2 in the bottom of the ninth, Houston turned to their closer, Ryan Pressly. After two quick outs, he would allow a game-tying solo home run, making it 3-3 to postpone Houston's celebration at least another inning as the game headed to extras.

In the top of the tenth, Jose Altuve was placed on second as the free runner. He advanced to third on a groundout to start the inning, then scored on a sac fly by Alex Bregman, making it a 4-3 lead for Houston. Enoli Paredes would load the bases before Texas would tie the game on a sac fly in the bottom of the inning, keeping runners on second and third. Houston made the change to Brooks Raley to try and extend the game another inning, but instead, the Rangers would get the walk-off win, spoiling Houston's chance to clinch their playoff spot themselves with a win.

Up Next: The third game of this four-game set will get underway at 6:05 PM Central on Saturday. On the mound for Texas will be Kyle Gibson (2-6, 5.87 ERA), and, as of now, the Astros still have Lance McCullers Jr. (3-3, 4.24 ERA) listed as their starter.

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