This is an odd time for a post, I know, but there is the potential for some very heavy rain later this week and I wanted to get word out before you are blasted with bright colors and doomsday scenarios on the local news later this evening.

I am going to keep this relatively brief and will not be adding much in the way of pretty maps right now as I do not think they accomplish much in terms of messaging at this juncture (Yes, there is a map at the top of this post but I had to put something there and the information on it will likely change). Here is the story:

Over the weekend you may have heard there was a "tropical thing" in the Gulf of Mexico that had a low probability of developing into an organized storm but that was heading in our general direction and would bring us some much needed rain later on this week. This is all still true, however early this morning computer models suddenly began ramping up the rainfall potential, with a few double digit rainfall bulls-eyes that were concerning. This is what raised the level of concern from "much needed rain" to "uh oh that may be too much rain."

The general parameters for a heavy rainfall event from late Tuesday thru Thursday look to be coming together with the aforementioned tropical blob slowly meandering towards and along the upper Texas coast, however I want to pump the brakes on the mild hysteria you may see from the local news. At this point we have less than 24 hours of model support for a concerning heavy rain event. If models remain consistent with this signal through tomorrow, we can begin drilling into particulars. However right now, it is impossible to give you exact when, where and who and how much answers when it comes to heavy rains and flooding concerns.

I will be digesting more information about this storm system this evening and will have an update posted tomorrow morning. Like I said though, I wanted to give a brief overview of the situation before you get whacked over the head with a bunch of red, purple, and white colors on a map.

As always you can find me on twitter @stephenuzick if you have any questions or want more information.