Gambling recap
Week 7 off to a hot start: Unlike the Atlanta offense
Jerry Bo
Oct 25, 2017, 4:40 am
Zeke Elliot and the Cowboys had a big day. Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images
Week 7 went somewhat back to normality as the favorites finally decided to show up.
My Play action or pass went 4-1-1 in week 7:
Buffalo-3 PUSH
Denver-1 LOSS
Cowboys Team Total Over 26.5 WIN
Seahawks/ Giants under 40.5 WIN
Rams-3 WIN
Teaser of the week(1-0): Tennesee-1 /Seattle Pick WIN
Pass: Packers+4.5
We felt, this was an overreaction but decided to pass because of so much unknown on both sides of the ball for the Packers.
Week 7 from the cashier's window:
Most bet teams
80% Titans
77% Panthers
73% Cowboys
72% Jags
72% Saints
Favorites went 9-4-2 ATS
In a week which broke the trend of 2017, the favorites dominated going 12-3 straight up.
Biggest Favorite to cover: Cowboys -6.5
In a game, that many touts predicted the 49ers to keep it close in, the Cowboys had something else to say about it. This game turned quickly, from a 49ers first-quarter punt return fumble, setting up Ezekiel Elliott for his first score of the day. Dallas never looked back as Elliott ran for 147 yards on 26 carries with two touchdowns and also caught a screen pass that broke for a 72-yard breathtaking score. Dak Prescott also had a great day, tallying four scores while getting Dez Bryant and Jason Witten involved. Coming off a bye, this was a much-needed win for a Dallas team that plays Washington, Kansas City, Atlanta and the Eagles in its next four games.
Honorable mention: Eagles -5.5
Carson Wentz continues to shine and show growth. Can he be one of the next guys to be the face of the NFL?
Biggest Underdogs to Win Outright Bears-Raiders: +3 (+130)
"Money" Mitch Trubisky and the Chicago Bears strike again or did he? In a game where he went 4-7 with 107 yards, can we credit him for this upset? Let's talk about 4th round Alabama Rookie Eddie Jackson and a story about not "giving up." A year to the day October 22, 2016, Jackson broke his leg, in what would be his last game with the Crimson Tide. One year later, on the anniversary of that tragic injury, he scored two 75 plus yard touchdowns, to become the first NFL defensive player to do so. Never give up!
The Raiders (+3), stunned the Chiefs in the closing moments of the Thursday night thriller to knock the Chiefs to 5-2 giving them their second loss in a row. Just a few weeks ago, the public was raving about how Kansas City was in a league of their own? Are they hands down still the best team now? The loss of Eric Berry cannot be discounted, as Marcus Peters getting torched has become a weekly trend leaving the secondary in doubt. Big test this week for the Chiefs as they receive the struggling Broncos, in a Monday night AFC West showdown.
Totals
The Over/ Under was 7-8 in Week 7. The lowest total on the board and perhaps the worse bad beat coming in the Baltimore game where the Ravens scored a meaningless touchdown as time expired to push the total over 37.5. (24-16.)
The "Over" is now 13-10 in primetime games with a winning percentage of 56.6%. An outstanding number for bettors, chasers and action junkies going into those primetime games. This figure surpasses the mark for 2016 (52%) and 2015 (41.7%.)
DIRTY Birds
Just how significant is the dropoff from the spectacular offense last year to the 2017 Falcons? In 2016, the Falcons had a point differential of +136, this year's Atlanta team -4. So, who does the dramatic decline fall on? Other than last year, Matt Ryan is the same player he has been throughout his career with an 89.3 passer rating, averaging 7.8 yards per pass. Going up vs. a defense that had allowed 300 plus passing yards to every quarterback they faced this year, Ryan turned in a less than stellar performance going 23-33 for 233 yards and a touchdown. A late-game score that should be credited as half an interception, if it wasn't for Julio Jones being a grown man and snatching it away from the Patriot defensive back. This ugly performance came vs. a team’s defense that allowed 23 first downs and 408 yards to the New York Jets. The Atlanta offense has fallen off in pretty much every offensive category since the change at OC from Kyle Shanahan to Steve Sarkisian. The Falcons were in the red zone on four occasions and came out with 0 points. They have only managed to score 7 points in the last six quarters.
Points Per Game . 2016 33.8
2017 21.3
Yards Per Game 2016 416
2017 378
Yards Per Play 2016 6.7
2017 6.2
Was last year a fluke for a team that was 18-30 the three previous seasons?
Is international travel a factor?
Yes, we know both teams have to deal with it, but the question is how? This week’s edition of overseas NFL brought us the Cardinals vs. the Rams. The way these two arrived was utterly different. The Cardinals, a team who hadn't played overseas since 2005, chose to travel early. Veteran running back Adrian Peterson, advised the group that they should leave early, as it was his second time making the trip overseas in 3 weeks and he believed that was the factor a few weeks back when his team beat a tired Miami squad that arrived late, 20-0. On the other hand, a group that hadn't traveled since 2005 and with some players on the rosters first trip ever to London, you have to think that some site seeing and a few other things non-football would cross the mind on this so-called business trip. The Rams instead opted to stay in Jacksonville at their temporary headquarters after beating the Jaguars. The team relaxed for a week on a five-star resort featuring a golf course and shorefront rooms that overlooked Ponte Vedra Beach. The Rams flew out later in the week and are quoted saying, "This was the blueprint on how the travel week should be done, it gave us a chance to bond without returning home." The result: a dismantling of the Cardinals 33-0.
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.
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The Houston Astros have looked like one of baseball’s most dangerous teams in recent weeks, riding a hot streak fueled by dominant starting pitching and a red-hot offense that’s erupted for double-digit runs in four of their last eight games. But behind the current success, there are fair questions about whether this pace is truly sustainable as the grind of the season continues.
Yes, the Astros are winning — and winning big — but context matters. Many of their recent victories have come against struggling clubs like the White Sox and Athletics. Even matchups against the Twins and Guardians, while respectable, don’t exactly represent championship-caliber tests. That soft stretch of the schedule has certainly helped Houston pad its win column, but it may not be the best predictor of long-term performance. Houston will be tested in the upcoming series against the Phillies and Cubs.
On the pitching side, the numbers have been impressive, but how repeatable is it? With Lance McCullers Jr. sidelined for at least a couple of weeks, the Astros are relying on a patchwork rotation that includes unproven arms like Colton Gordon, Ryan Gusto, and Brandon Walter. While each has shown flashes, asking them to shoulder the load deep into the summer may be a tall order.
Offensively, Houston is firing on all cylinders. But scoring 10 or more runs every other game simply isn’t sustainable over a 162-game season. Regression is inevitable; the question is how the team responds when the bats cool down or the bullpen is asked to carry more weight.
Amid all this, rookie third baseman Cam Smith continues to shine. Just a few months into his major league career, Smith is producing at a level that suggests he’s not just a key piece of the future — he’s already one of the team’s most valuable players. His batting average sits just a point behind Jose Altuve’s, and his OPS is even higher. If the Astros were forced to choose two players to build around long-term, factoring in youth and contract status, the logical duo might be Smith and breakout pitcher Hunter Brown.
So what about the big picture? Is this team a true World Series contender?
Oddsmakers currently have Houston with the seventh-best odds to win it all, and only the Yankees and Tigers rank higher among American League teams. The core is still there, the experience is undeniable, and if the pitching continues to hold — especially with the anticipated return of Spencer Arrighetti and a healthy McCullers — the Astros have every reason to believe they’ll be in the mix deep into October.
But that’s a big “if.” The ceiling is still high, and with Cam Smith emerging as a star in real time, this team might just have another gear. Whether they can reach it when the competition stiffens, that remains to be seen.
There's so much more to cover! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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