THE PALLILOG
Here's what a Deshaun Watson trade could look like for Texans
Jan 29, 2021, 11:00 am
A bidding war could benefit Houston. Composite image by Jack Brame.
How Deshaun Watson's honeymoon is almost over in Houston
The Texans finally have a new head coach! The Texans finally have a new head coach!
Deshaun Watson: "And?"
In 65-year-old David Culley the Texans hire the oldest first time head coach in NFL history. If you are in the seeming teensy weensy minority that believes in Texans' organizational competence of any extent, then going with a 65-year-old isn't of itself horribly concerning. 65 isn't 85. He's going to coach, not run down the field on special teams. Pete Carroll turns 70 in September, Bill Belichick 69 in April. Both are still going strong (Patriots' 2020 season aside). Of course, Carroll and Belichick weren't Social Security eligible when hired, and both had much better resumes than Culley.
That Culley has never been a coordinator of any kind on the pro level, also isn't horribly concerning. At least not if a currently credible organization had made the hire. Culley can succeed provided he isn't a power-hungry, arrogant, borderline egomaniac who wants to handle far more than he is qualified or competent to handle. Sound familiar? Those Bill O'Brien traits are not part of any Culley background one reads or hears. He won't call the plays on offense, he'll have nothing to do with running the defense. Culley's job will be that of a commander and leader of men, who hopefully isn't prone to clownish game management decisions.
Culley worked for 18 seasons under Andy Reid before spending two with the Bills (the second as quarterback coach for rookie Josh Allen) then the last two in Baltimore.
The Texans turn out to be the only of the seven franchises to hire a black head coach this offseason. So there are now three in the NFL (Culley, Mike Tomlin, and Brian Flores). Three out of 32. Ron Rivera and new Jets' head coach Robert Saleh bring the minority total to five. The Falcons, Lions, and Washington Football Team all hired black general managers.
Dealing Deshaun?
Now, what is the play out with Deshaun Watson? Is he truly past the point of no return? It's not as if he retires if the Texans absolutely refuse to trade him. The Texans would probably stink with Watson in 2021 just as they stunk with him in 2020. Trading him would be an absolute fiasco in how ineptly the Texans got to that point, but it's not like they'd be pulling the linchpin of a budding dynasty. The near 22 million dead dollars salary cap hit they'd take wouldn't be costing them a run at Super Bowl LVI. If Watson is ultimately to be a goner, new GM Nick Caserio's tenure will largely ride on the return from the trade. Initially it will be judged on the haul reaped in return, and over time much more significantly on what the Texans make of whatever bounty of draft picks they harvest and who their next "long term" quarterback is.
The Texans are fortunate if the Jets and Dolphins indeed top Watson-acceptable trade destinations. The Jets have the second and 23rd first round picks in the upcoming draft, plus their own and Seattle's first rounders in 2022. If the Texans were to get those four picks plus not yet 24-year-old quarterback Sam Darnold, they would not be getting fleeced in the deal. Would the Jets pay that much? Even more? The Texans could keep Darnold and use or auction off the second overall pick, or trade Darnold and use the second overall pick on BYU QB Zach Wilson or Ohio State's Justin Fields.
The Dolphins have the third and 18th first round picks, in 2022 they hold only their own first rounder. Number three overall was part of the Texans' overpay for Laremy Tunsil. The Dolphins also have the fourth pick of the second round from the same swap. QB decision in a Dolphins deal would be about the soon to turn 23 year old Tua Tagavailoa.
The Dolphins and Jets both being in the AFC East in theory makes for an ideal bidding war, provided both covet Watson and both fear the other acquiring him. Oh yeah, and Watson would have to accept the trade since as one more jewel in the Texans' imbecile crown they gave Watson a no-trade clause. In fairness, the Chiefs gave one to Patrick Mahomes so Team Watson no doubt wanted the same, and who five months ago would have foreseen the current mess? Newsflash on the other hand: Watson isn't Mahomes.
Buzzer Beaters:
1. So take your pick: Darnold, picks 2 and 23 this year, 2022 Jets and Seahawks first rounders OR Tua, choices 3, 18, 36, and 50 this year plus Dolphins' 2022 first rounder.
2. If there is an MLS lockout will you notice?
3. Most lopsided trades ever: Bronze-Celtics get Kevin McHale and Robert Parish from Golden State for Joe Barry Carroll and Rickey Brown Silver-Yankees buy Babe Ruth from Red Sox for $125,000 Gold-Peter Minuit buys Manhattan for 24 dollars
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How Houston Rockets hold the cards for a franchise-changing summer
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In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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