Paul Muth
What does the season hold for the Rockets? It all starts tonight
Oct 17, 2018, 2:53 pm
James Harden and the Rockets have big goals. Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
If you blinked, you just missed the entire NBA off-season. But to be honest, if your only memories of the Rockets 2017-2018 campaign still center around their forgettable Western Conference Finals game seven exit, it's probably best that we push through to a brand new season and leave those 27 consecutive missed three-pointers in the past where they belong.
The Rockets’ new season kicks off tonight at the Toyota Center against the New Orleans Pelicans. Now there's probably a significant amount of people out there where that information is breaking news to. I get it. The Astros are probably your main focus at the moment, and rightfully so. Luckily for you, I've been thawed out from my basketball cryogenic stasis just in time to get your mind right for some sweet, sweet shooty hoops.
What happened last year?
The Rockets face-smushed the entire league, that's what. Led by the eventual league MVP James Harden and new running mate Chris Paul, Houston dismantled opposing teams with lights out shooting and improved focus on defense. They ripped off winning streaks of 10 or more games three separate times en route to the best regular season record in the NBA, the number one seed in the Western Conference Playoffs, and a franchise record for wins in a single season at 65. So yeah, they did ok.
The Rockets cruised past the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Utah Jazz in the first two rounds of the postseason, winning both series four games to one. Only then did they square off with the Golden State Warriors. Both teams traded wins in the first four games, but it was Houston who would come out on top in game five. It would come at a massive cost, as Paul would be lost to a hamstring injury for the remainder of the series. The depleted depth was too much for the Rockets to overcome and the Warriors came back to capture the series in game seven against an exhausted Houston team.
Key departures
As it turns out, the Rockets may have been too good for their own good. When you capture the best regular season record, other teams tend to look at who on the team helped you get there and wonder if they can help further their own interests.
Such was the case this off-season as long time Rocket Trevor Ariza was lured away by the Phoenix Suns with an offer Houston had no interest--or business for that matter--matching. Ariza's defense and ranged offense would be missed but it was assumed that backup small forward Luc Mbah a Moute would be able to step in and fill the role with minimal drop off.
That is, until Mbah a Moute bolted for the L.A. Clippers. Mbah a Moute had taken his one year minimum contract offered by General Manager Daryl Morey and successfully parlayed his 2017-2018 season’s performance into a bigger payday. Morey got great production for a bargain and Mbah a Moute earned a better contract. It was win-win. You can't argue with that, but now the Rockets were without a small forward.
Key additions
Morey quickly went to work to plug the suddenly gaping hole through a variety of moves. He started by initially signing defensive specialist James Ennis and followed that with an insanely low risk gamble by signing potential hall of famer, Carmelo Anthony, to a veteran's minimum deal. The two moves addressed the hole, and while it may not have brought back a perfectly identical return on talent compared to the previous season, it was certainly a savvy move in the right direction.
Then, just as everything had settled down, Morey waved his sabermetric wand and did what most deemed impossible: he found a trade partner willing to take on the $21 million dollar contract of Ryan Anderson, a three point shooting power forward who forgot how to shoot the ball from three point range. Not only that, but he received an above average backup point guard seeking a redemption season in Brandon Knight, and an uber athletic potential diamond in the rough with Marquese Chriss. In Morey we trust, ladies and gentlemen.
Three keys to look for
How will Carmelo Anthony be utilized?
Critics of the acquisition will cite his previous failure to work with head coach Mike D'Antoni in New York, as well as his on ball play style as reasons why the experiment won't work. These are probably the same people that said Chris Paul and James Harden wouldn't be able to productively share the court as well, and then the Rockets won 65 games. How Anthony is used remains the question. It's speculated that he will assume shooting guard Eric Gordon's sixth man spot, allowing him plenty of free reign on-ball to wreak havoc on opposing benches.
Which newcomer will stand out?
Brandon Knight has already proven to be a near all star caliber point guard when healthy, however that last part is a significant question mark. James Ennis will be a name to keep an eye on however as he frustrates opposing teams defensively. I'm most intrigued by the prospect of Marquese Chriss having a breakout year in part because of his ability to go up and get the ball, and Paul and Harden's ability to effectively find him cutting to the basket. Clint Capela made a living off of the alleyoop last season. It would be a lot of fun to watch another lob option develop.
Can the Rockets be competitive without pulling off a Jimmy Butler trade?
Yes, yes, a hundred times yes. The thought that the Rockets need Butler to win is a joke. Now acquiring another top 15 talent would obviously be welcome and improve their chances, but this is a well built, dangerous roster.
Predictions
This is going to be another fun season with one of the league's top offenses wreaking havoc on the league. The key will be health, but this a Rockets team that is built to throw offense at the opposition for 48 straight minutes until they crack.
I expect the Rockets to once again win the Southwest Division and vie for a top 3 seed in the Western Conference. Ultimately I anticipate a Western Conference Finals rematch with Golden State, provided everyone remains healthy.
Now comes what seems the perennial question every team asks: can they beat the Golden State Warriors? I'd like to say yes, but until I see it actually happen, you won't see me predicting anything otherwise. While it may get old watching the Warriors win title after title, keep in mind that you are witnessing quite possibly one of the greatest basketball teams ever assembled. But if there's any consolation to be had, it can be found in the fact that if there is any team in the west capable of playing spoiler to Golden State, it's the Houston Rockets.
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.