Falcon Points
What the Houston O'Briens need to do to close the gap in the AFC
Feb 5, 2020, 6:55 am
Getty Images
If you watched Sunday's Super Bowl (and let's face it; of course you did) you heard more than one reference to the Chiefs trailing the Houston O'Briens 24-0 before rallying on their way to a title. They also trailed Tennessee by 10 and San Francisco by 10 before rolling to a 31-20 victory and Kansas City's first Super Bowl title in 50 years.
Now that the season is officially over, it's time for an honest assessment of where Houston fits in the landscape of the NFL and AFC in particular. And one man - Bill O'Brien - will dictate whether or not the team makes up ground.
What Vegas says
As usual, early Vegas Super Bowl odds go up right after the prior year's game ends.
Here are the 2021 Super Bowl odds according to William Hill:
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 7/1 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 7/1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7/1 |
| New Orleans Saints | 10/1 |
| New England Patriots | 12/1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 15/1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 15/1 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 18/1 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 20/1 |
| Tennessee Titans | 25/1 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 25/1 |
| Houston Texans | 25/1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 25/1 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 25/1 |
| Chicago Bears | 30/1 |
| Buffalo Bills | 30/1 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 30/1 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 30/1 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 30/1 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 40/1 |
| Cleveland Browns | 40/1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 50/1 |
| Denver Broncos | 50/1 |
| Detroit Lions | 60/1 |
| New York Jets | 60/1 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 60/1 |
| Carolina Panthers | 60/1 |
| New York Giants | 60/1 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 75/1 |
| Miami Dolphins | 100/1 |
| Washington Redskins | 100/1 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 125/1 |
While the O'Briens are 25-1, they are basically co-fourth choices in the AFC with Pittsburgh and Tennessee. Teams regarded with better chances? The Chiefs (7-1), Ravens (7-1) and Patriots (12-1).
The Chiefs and Ravens were the dominant teams in the AFC in 2019-20 and deserve to be favored. The Titans made it a step deeper in the playoffs than did Houston, and the Steelers almost made the playoffs without Ben Roethlisberger, who will be back next season (presumably). So where Houston sits makes sense. Keep in mind, this is before off-season moves. The Chiefs will have to do some maneuvering to keep everyone. The Ravens might not be able to keep Lamar Jackson healthy for a full season again. The Patriots could easily be back but might also move on from Tom Brady and start over. The O'Briens? It remains to be seen.
Moves to be made
The Colts (40-1) could be a threat if they get a veteran quarterback. But all of these odds are more based on last year's results than what these teams will look like heading into camp. The gap between Houston and Kansas City as of today is significant. A 24-0 lead aside, there has to be a lot of moves made. And the Chiefs need to regress, both of which are entirely plausible.
The real question is what does O'Brien the GM do in the off-season? We know he is not going to bring in fresh voices on the coaching staff. And we know he will overpay his pets (Nick Martin and Whitney Mercilus) and give away anyone who he does not like (Jadeveon Clowney). So if your coaching is not going to improve, and you have limited draft capital, the team has one way to improve - free agency.
First things first
Houston has plenty of cap room, but some big deals that need to be made with players already on the roster will impact that. They need to extend Laremy Tunsil, and Deshaun Watson is due for a raise as well. They could hold off until next season, but going into the 2021 off-season with both players eligible to hit free agency would be a disaster. So they need to get at least Tunsil locked up now.
D.J. Reader will get paid by somebody. It will be interesting to see whether or not the team values him the same way it did Mercilus and Martin. Carlos Hyde had a big year, and he is a free agent as well. Bradley Roby is another potential free agent. He played well when healthy, but was he really good enough to be a No. 1 corner? That's what it will cost to keep him.
Without him, they have Gareon Conley, Vernon Hargreaves and Lonnie Johnson under contract. They need a legitimate No. 1, which should be available in free agency. But the price will be steep.
They also need help in the pass rush, which won't be cheap either. And if Reader leaves? They need to replace him as well. All that will just keep them where they are, not necessarily make them better.
And that's the real issue. How can they get better? It's all up to O'Brien the GM to close the gap. Because O'Brien's coaching staff isn't getting any better, and the draft is not going to help.
It will be hard just to keep the Texans where they are, much less improve. But there is a gap that has to be closed if they are going to compete with the Chiefs and Ravens, among others.
As of now, Vegas has them a long way off. And now that O'Brien is in charge of everything, it's on him to gain the ground, what he does in free agency will be the determining factor.
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
A new challenge awaits, and the Astros know what’s at stake
Jun 27, 2025, 2:05 pm
The Houston Astros didn’t just sweep the Philadelphia Phillies. They sent a message.
In three tightly contested games against one of the best teams in baseball, the Astros leaned on their elite pitching and timely offense to secure a statement sweep. Hunter Brown was electric in the finale, shutting down the Phillies’ lineup and showing the kind of dominance that’s become a defining feature of his game. Bryan Abreu slammed the door with four strikeouts to close out the win, and rookie Cam Smith delivered the deciding blow — an RBI single in the eighth to drive in Isaac Paredes, lifting the Astros to a 2-1 victory.
It wasn’t a series filled with offensive fireworks, but that’s exactly the point. Both teams sent out top-tier pitching throughout the series, and Houston was the team that kept finding a way. For much of the season, the Astros’ inconsistent offense might’ve been a concern in a series like this. But this time, it felt different. The bats showed up just enough, and the pitching did the rest.
Now, with Houston on pace for 96 wins at the halfway point, the question becomes: Is the league officially on notice?
Maybe. Maybe not. But one thing is certain, the Astros have the third-best record in baseball, they’re 17-7 in one-run games, and they’re playing with the kind of rhythm that’s defined their near-decade of dominance. Unlike last year’s uneven campaign, this version of the Astros looks like a team that’s rediscovered its edge. Whether or not they need to take care of business against the Cubs to validate it, their recent run leaves little doubt: when Houston is clicking, there are very few teams built to stop them.
Off the field, however, a bit of long-term uncertainty is starting to creep in. Reports surfaced this week that extension talks with shortstop Jeremy Peña have been put on hold as he recently signed with super-agent Scott Boras. The combination has led many to wonder if Peña might follow the same free-agent path as Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, and others before him. Boras clients rarely settle early, and Peña, now one of the most valuable shortstops in the game, could command a price tag the Astros have historically avoided paying.
If Peña and even Hunter Brown are likely to get priced out of Houston, the front office may need to pivot. Isaac Paredes could be the most logical extension candidate on the roster. His approach — particularly his ability to pull the ball with authority — is tailor-made for Daikin Park and the Crawford Boxes. Last year, Paredes struggled to leave the yard at Wrigley Field, but in Houston, he’s thriving. Locking him in long term would give the Astros offensive stability and the kind of value they’ve typically targeted.
As for Cam Smith, the breakout rookie is far from free agency and will remain a cost-controlled piece for years. That’s exactly why his contributions now, like his clutch eighth-inning knock to beat Philadelphia, matter so much. He's one more reason why the Astros don’t just look good right now. They look dangerous.
And the rest of the league is starting to feel it.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
___________________________
*ChatGPT assisted.
Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!