THE NFL IS BACK!
When will the Houston Texans host the season opener?
Sep 6, 2018, 6:58 am
With Deshaun Watson leading the charge, the Texans could be real contenders in 2020. Tim Warner/Getty Images
Tonight is the official kick-off to the NFL season as the 2017 Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles host the 2016 runner-up Atlanta Falcons. This prime-time game is the league’s way of rewarding the champion by giving them the night to celebrate with the stage to themselves. It got me thinking: when will the Texans have a legitimate shot at bringing opening night to Houston?
I sat down, looked over the current contracts, looked at the weaknesses, then decided the 2020 season is the first time the stars might align for the Texans.
Anytime a team makes the playoffs they have a shot, but this exercise is about a realistic outlook for the future and 2020 is when I think they can not only make the playoffs; but enter with a bye week as a serious threat to win it all.
I think they’ve entered a new era. For the first time in their history they have a quarterback who looks like a real franchise player. They had a good run during the Matt Schaub years, but Deshaun Watson is leaps and bounds ahead of him talent wise. In NFL circles, having a quarterback that can lead a top offense within the time frame of his rookie contract gives them a lot of flexibility.
Houston has their most important offensive players already under contract for the next two years and a lot of cap space to work with. The first thing they will have to fix is the offensive line. Everyone knows they don’t have it right now and it’s going to hold them back. Sure, Watson is still going to make it work but it’s easy to think they can be a top 5 offense with better protection up front.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that one of the new tight ends they drafted in 2018 develops. If DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, and a legitimate pass catching tight end are on the field; look out, because Watson will put up MVP numbers.
I think in the next two years the running backs will get a necessary upgrade as well. While I think D’Onta Foreman can play, I’m not convinced he will develop into an every-down back. Sometime in the next two years an investment will have to be made. And not an aging veteran or a late round draft pick. It will have to be someone who can really compliment the offense and prevent any decline in overall performance. I think it happens and the offense gets some serious balance before the 2020 season.
Good news for the Texans, the defense has plenty of its top talent signed to the roster for at least two more years. J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus, Benardrick McKinney, and Zach Cunningham will all be here to crowd the middle and get after the quarterback. Guys like D.J. Reader and Christian Covington shouldn’t be too expensive to keep around; keeping a solid core intact. The wild card will be Jadeveon Clowney. His is currently in the final year of his contract, but with all the cap room available I feel confident that things will get worked out. That leaves Brain Gaine with only the secondary to overhaul.
It would be nice if Tyrann Mathieu stuck around on a new deal, but I’ll bet that only Justin Reid remains on the roster in 2020. And if you only have one position group to fix, then you’re in good shape. Plenty of defensive backs have been found in the middle rounds or cheaply in free agency. That means that Houston could go into that season with the talent in place to have a championship level defense.
I see a Texans team with an arrow pointing straight up. They only have a few position groups to fix and a new GM to make it happen. Rick Smith may not have done well drafting in the middle rounds, but he loaded this team with stars in the first round. His final act was to draft the future in Deshaun Watson, which will make the next few years a wide-open window of opportunity. He left a few problems on his way out, and in my estimation, it will take two more years to get them fixed.
Every season is different and none of this may work out. Or maybe they catch lightning in a bottle sooner and win it all in 2018 or 2019. It’s going to be fun to watch and find out.
How 3 major x-factors could tip the scales in Texans-Colts: Week 1
Sep 5, 2024, 7:27 pm
Each football game of a season carries much more weight than one game in a 162 Major League Baseball schedule. That reality, combined with the National Football League campaign opening and with it the most anticipated season in Texans’ history, the Astros are relegated to second banana this weekend. Just the way it goes despite the Astros’ phenomenal extended run from 10 games out of first place in mid-June to now having control of the American League West race and a likely (though definitely not yet certain) eighth consecutive year of postseason play.
It is reality that getting swept out of Cincinnati cost the Astros two games in the standings to Seattle the last two days and trimmed their division lead to four and a half games going into this weekend. There was nothing shameful about getting swept. It’s not as if they choked. They got outplayed and beaten in all three games. Stuff happens within a 162-game season. The 2019 Astros were vastly better than the 2024 Astros. The 2019 ‘Stros posted the best record in franchise history at 107-55. In Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole they had the two best pitchers in the AL. The Reds finished 75-87 in ’19. In the lone Astros-Reds series five years ago, Verlander and Cole started two of the three games. The Reds swept the Astros out of Cincy by scores of 3-2, 4-3, and 3-2. Stuff happens. The following week the Astros called up Yordan Alvarez. There is no Yordan coming to fortify the offense now, but wait! Is that Kyle Tucker's music?
The Astros host the NL champs this weekend
It’s highly unlikely but it’s still a possible World Series preview at Minute Maid Park this weekend with the Astros home for three games versus the Arizona Diamondbacks. The reigning National League Champions woke up under .500 July 11, but since then have been sizzling with 33 wins against just 15 losses. Over the same time frame the Astros are 27-21. The Diamondbacks by a large margin have scored the most runs in MLB this season, and that’s while playing the last nearly three weeks without Ketel Marte because of a high ankle sprain. Marte has been far and away the best second baseman in the game this year. He may return this weekend in a designated hitter role. The Arizona offense overall has been sensational, however it has vulnerability against left-handed pitching, in significant part because it typically takes lefty-hitting platoon beast Joc Pederson out of the lineup. The D’Backs are 55-35 in games facing right-handed starters, just 24-27 in games started by opposing southpaws. The Astros have lefties Framber Valdez and Yusei Kikuchi set to go in the first two games this weekend. While the Astros deal with the Diamondbacks the Mariners are in St. Louis for three against the Cardinals.
Eleven Diamondbacks have had at least 200 plate appearances this season. Only one of them has an OPS below .725. The Astros also have 11 guys with at least 200 PAs. Five of them lug around sub-.715 OPSes: Jeremy Pena (.714), Jake Meyers (.664), Mauricio Dubon (.645), Jon Singleton (.697), and Chas McCormick (.566).
Maximizing Tucker's return
Speaking of returns, Tucker fiiiiiiinally should see action for the first time since his June 3 bone bruise. Oh wait, broken leg. Shame on the Astros for their BSing over this and other injuries. Yeah, Alex Bregman slept funny. Whatever. To boost the lineup Tucker doesn’t have to be the .979 OPS MVP candidate he was when felled. Ben Gamel has done some good work, but over time he’s Ben Gamel. Same for Jason Heyward. If Tucker's legs are under him his power is a B-12 shot and only Yordan is in his league in on-base percentage. Joe Espada has decisions to make as to how slot the batting order. Against a right-handed starter Jose Altuve, Tucker, Alvarez, Yainer Diaz, Bregman one through five makes sense with Tucker dropping down below Yainer against a left-handed starter. No question those are the top five in some order. How much of a workload Tucker is ready for bears watching. Presumably he doesn’t initially play the outfield day in day out. When Tucker DHs obviously Bregman (and Yordan) can’t so Alex’s ailing elbow holding up is key. One might say hopefully the bone chips don’t fall where they may. Tuesday the Astros start a stretch playing 16 days in a row.
Keep hope alive!
If you’re an Astros fan holding out hope of chasing down the second seed to avoid having to play the best-of-three Wild Card series, say it with me, whatever nausea it may induce: “Go Dodgers Go!” Hurt as it might, business is business. The Dodgers play host to the Guardians. The Astros trail Cleveland by five games with just 22 to play, but do finish the regular season with three games at Cleveland. It's pretty much over for the Astros to catch both the Orioles and Yankees.
Season-long trends mean nothing once the playoffs start, and that’s a good thing for the Astros provided they are in the playoffs. They continue to flat out stink in close games. Thursday’s 1-0 loss to the Reds has the Astros record in one-run games at 15-24. In two-run games they are 10-14. Correlatively, the Astros also continue to routinely fail late in close games. The Astros have played 14 games that were tied after seven innings. They have lost 11 of the 14. In games tied after eight innings they are 7-13. Every team loses an extremely high percentage of games when trailing after eight innings, but the Astros haven’t pulled out a single game they’ve trailed going to the ninth. 0-50. Oh and fifty. But hey, the White Sox are 0-92!
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.