Houston is 3-1 but the future is uncertain
Here's where the Astros stand after the first series of 2020
Jul 28, 2020, 8:22 am
The Astros are 3-1, but are down Justin Verlander. Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images
The Astros are 3-1, but are down Justin Verlander
The first five days of the 2020 MLB regular season has been anything but ordinary, or uneventful. From the first game between the Yankees and Nationals going final after six innings due to rain to the empty stadiums slowly getting filled with cardboard cutouts of fans, this year's baseball is not what anyone expected to be watching at the beginning of this year.
The Astros find themselves navigating these uncharted waters, and now have four games under their belt after completing the four-game set with the Mariners at Minute Maid Park. They were able to take the series 3-1 and outscored Seattle 29-16 over that span.
You can't replace Verlander, but don't count the Astros out
The season started, in terms of starting lineup, as expected on Friday, with the potent offense starring George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman slotted 1-3 in the order, and Houston's ace, Justin Verlander on the mound. Though he allowed a couple of early runs, Verlander looked mostly sharp on his way to his first win of the early season.
Unfortunately, everything must not have been fine for Verlander, who would be part of a sport-wide shocking announcement on Sunday that he was going to miss time with a forearm injury. Although the initial reports varied in terms of length, from a few weeks to the whole season, Verlander's missed time will undoubtedly have a significant impact on this Astros team.
The rotation was already somewhat shaky beyond the top three, with Verlander, Zack Greinke, and Lance McCullers Jr. being followed by Josh James, who had a rough start on Monday against the Mariners, in the fourth spot and the fifth spot currently filled with Framber Valdez. Valdez will start on Tuesday in the opener of the quick two-game set. He had nearly an even split in 2019 between filling in as a starter and coming out of the bullpen. As a reliever, he had an ERA of 4.63 with 29 strikeouts and 21 walks over 35 innings. As a starter, he recorded 35.2 innings with an ERA of 7.07, 39 strikeouts, and 23 walks.
Dusty Baker and the Astros have not yet named who will start in Verlander's place on Wednesday against the Dodgers. The pressure will be on Houston's young arms, who will likely have to provide a lot more innings this year than initially expected. Fortunately, many of the new faces on the mound for the Astros looked effective over the first four games. Here is a quick recap of how some of the debuting pitchers did this weekend:
- Blake Taylor: 2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 K
- Enoli Paredes: 1.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 K
- Cristian Javier: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 K
- Brandon Bielak: 3.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 4K
So while we'll wait and see who starts Wednesday, it could be that one of these arms needs to go just a few innings before making way for several others to finish the game, bullpen-style.
Potential reinforcements on the way
It's not all bad news, either. After a time of mystery surrounding when Yordan Alvarez and Jose Urquidy would be available, both have reported to Corpus Christi to start ramping up activities with the alternate squad. The change means that the already potent lineup will get another dose of power in Alvarez, while Urquidy will help bring in more talent to the pitching staff. Urduidy, though, will likely need some time to ramp up, while Alvarez could join the team relatively soon.
Another notable arm currently waiting for the call in Corpus Christi is Forrest Whitley. While the logical move would be to bring your best pitching prospect up after losing your veteran ace, the reality is it's just not that easy of a decision, for several reasons that Charlie Pallilo does an excellent job of explaining.
Even further, the Astros showed on Monday that even if their starter falters, the offense is more than capable of compensating and still winning games. Sure, you can't expect them to do that for each of Verlander's remaining starts of 2020 if who replaces him struggles each time, but by no means does this put the Astros out of contention.
The road ahead
Looking at the schedule ahead, the Astros will, as mentioned, have a tough matchup with the Dodgers on Tuesday and Wednesday, then take their first trip on the road, starting with a trip to Los Angeles to face the Angels who have gotten out to a slow 1-3 start. They'll stay on the road for two more series, three-game sets against the 1-3 Diamondbacks in Arizona and the 3-1 A's in Oakland.
So while they face a tough test with the Dodgers, the upcoming schedule can be navigated, even without their best pitcher, to come out with a strong record intact. Furthermore, it's important to keep in mind that the expanded playoffs could not have come at a better time for the Astros, who could falter without Verlander and still have a favorable chance to make the 16-team playoffs.
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.