OFFENSIVE EXPLOSION THIS SUNDAY?
Winless Texans are 6-point favorites over visiting Jaguars
Oct 7, 2020, 10:50 am
This is the week the Texans get going. Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images
"It's brutal. I mean, it's depressing. It sucks. This sucks."
J.J. Watt had identical thoughts as most Texans fans leaving NRG Stadium on Sunday after the Texans lost 31-23 to the Minnesota Vikings (1-3). The defeat buried their record in an even deeper hole at 0-4 for the first time since 2008.
The last team to make the playoffs after starting 0-4? The 1992 San Diego Chargers.
One thing is certain: Bill O'Brien seemed more concerned about posing for a photo with former Texans coaches, Dom Capers and Gary Kubiak, before Sunday's clash, rather than game planning to keep his job.
Screen grab of the three Texans head coaches that FOX ran. pic.twitter.com/3UGa0SNtWj
— Rivers McCown (@riversmccown) October 4, 2020
Fantastic. O'Brien is finally out and Texans fans can take a deep breath. But Cal McNair still owes the city an explanation about the defensive side of the ball.
While O'Brien was trying to save his job by taking over play calling, defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver was struggling to get his guys off the field for the fourth time this year.
Issues on defense
Vikings offensive coordinator Kubiak employed the Vikings' effective run game to ruin his former employers Sunday. For the fourth week in a row, the Texans gave up 160-plus rushing yards. Dalvin Cook dodged and weaved through the Texans weak front line, racking up 130 yards and two touchdowns.
The last team to give up 160 or more yards in the first four games of a season? The 1995 Arizona Cardinals who finished 4-12.
It wasn't just the run game that Kubiak used to outthink the Texans. The Vikings air game exposed the secondary that was sleeping most of the game. If cornerback Vernon Hargreaves wasn't getting bulldozed by Cook in the end zone, it was receiver Justin Jefferson beating him downfield en route to his second 100-yard game in a row (four receptions for 103 yards).
In addition to Cousins and Jefferson finding their chemistry, Cousins had good fortune linking up with wide receiver Adam Thielen all game long. Thielen caught eight balls for 114 yards and a touchdown. Although Whitney Mercilus showed much-needed life and sacked Cousins twice, the Vikings quarterback was still able to eat up large chunks of yardage, averaging 13.7 yards per target.
Despite putting pressure on Cousins on pass plays, there was no evidence of the Texans setting the edge to defend the run. It was especially apparent on a 4th-down play when Kubiak dialed up a sweep with Cousins, who successfully found the edge.
How did Cousins do this to the Texans pic.twitter.com/uWmKHdmbdS
— Will Doctor (@Doctor_w1) October 6, 2020
Onto the Jags
Looking forward, the Texans are 6-point favorites over the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars next Sunday. The spread seems high for a winless Texans team. MyBookie.ag has the over/under at 54. Jacksonville is giving up 30 plus points per game.
Hopes are high for Houston now that Deshaun Watson is free from the reins of O'Brien. Deshaun Watson and play caller (for the moment) Tim Kelly will have control of the offense.
This will be interim coach Romeo Crennel's first game at the Texans helm. The Texans will face another dangerous run assault led by September's offensive rookie of the month James Robinson. Although Robinson does not possess the power of Dalvin Cook, he is a young, hungry threat that must be shadowed.
I will be looking for a lockdown week from the Texans secondary. The Jags only have one receiver, D.J. Chark, who poses a downfield threat. Chark has caught three touchdown passes from quarterback Gardner Minshew. Look for cornerback Bradley Roby to match-up well with Chark.
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The Houston Astros walked out of Phoenix with a three-game sweep of the Diamondbacks, but the biggest win of the series might not have been in the standings, it could’ve been the emergence of their latest young spark plug.
Once again, the pitching carried the load. Brandon Walter continued his breakout season with another strong showing, and right now, he looks like Houston’s third starter if the playoffs began today. Behind him, Ryan Gusto and Colton Gordon have quietly helped stabilize a rotation ravaged by injuries. All three own ERAs under 4.5, a luxury the Astros couldn’t have anticipated heading into the year. Another thing they couldn't have anticipated was Lance McCullers' ERA this season being almost seven.
Walter’s rise comes at the same time the McCullers situation grows murkier. After starting the season late, he’s on the injured list again, this time with a blister on his pitching hand. Though the issue isn’t related to his arm, the “vibes” simply haven't been there. He’s struggled in four of his last five starts, and one wonders whether a "phantom" IL stint might be in his future, especially with Cristian Javier and Spencer Arrighetti progressing in rehab assignments. The roster squeeze is coming, and McCullers might not make the cut.
Crushing dingers!
Offensively, the conversation begins and ends with Brice Matthews. The first-round pick has quickly shifted from injury fill-in to potential staple, nearly winning the series by himself with three home runs across the first two games. His athleticism has popped in the field, and while contact concerns remain, the power and energy are real. Matthews is the only prospect of his pedigree ready to contribute, so the club made a wise decision to take a shot on upside, and Matthews delivered. That's why we were so emphatic about the Astros elevating Matthews. Get him in the lineup as a DH if you have to, whatever it takes, this offense needs pop. Then lo and behold, not only does he give the offense a lift, his defense also helped seal a win against Arizona.
Veteran slugger Christian Walker might be heating up too, posting a .348 average with three home runs and an .895 OPS in July. That’s a promising development, especially in a month when the Astros have flipped their typical formula. The pitching has been average — 18th in ERA, 18th in WHIP, 21st in opponent batting average — but the offense has been elite: top-five in slugging, OPS, and runs scored.
Injury bug
Still, questions persist. Chief among them is the health of Yordan Alvarez. His recent comments about his hand injury — specifically, his uncertainty and acknowledgement that rest hasn’t helped — were troubling. If surgery isn’t an option and time off isn’t working, what is the long-term solution? At this point, fans are right to worry about whether Alvarez will ever fully return to the dominant form he once showed.
Trade deadline
With the trade deadline one week away, general manager Dana Brown has to weigh all of this. The pitching could soon be bolstered by returns from the IL. But the offense, especially with no clear return dates for Alvarez, Jeremy Peña, Jake Meyers, and Isaac Paredes, might need immediate help. Despite the sweep, Houston scored just three and four runs in the final two games of the Diamondbacks series. If they’re serious about contending for a championship, another bat may be required. They'll see much better pitching in the postseason.
If the Astros do decide to add an arm, a power right-handed reliever could make sense. With Bryan Abreu the only truly dominant righty in the bullpen, a little late-inning muscle wouldn’t hurt.
Bottom line: the Astros are winning, and they're doing it in multiple ways. But with health concerns piling up and playoff positioning tightening, there’s still plenty of work ahead. Fortunately for Houston, they may have just found another foundational piece in the most unexpected place, a rookie who’s already changing the conversation.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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