Falcon Points
With just 4 weeks before the start of the season, here's what we know about the Texans
Aug 13, 2020, 6:55 am
Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images
Four weeks from today, the NFL is schedule to begin its season, with the Texans taking on the Kansas City Chiefs. It's unlikely there will be fans, and there is still a good chance it gets delayed, but as of today, the game is on.
With just a month to go, there are uncertainties at every corner. Because practices have been essentially closed, and not conducted as business as usual, there is no way to know how prepared teams will be. With no preseason or scrimmages, there will be nothing to use as a gauge for where teams stand, either for coaches or fans.
So what do we know about the Texans this close to the season?
1) The offensive line should be a strength
For years the worst position group on the field, this particular group has a chance to be top-notch. Laremy Tunsil should be better with a second year in the offense and a chance to work through the off-season after being thrust on the team late in the game last year. Tytus Howard was playing at a very high level when he was injured and should improve. Bill O'Brien even said he believes Howard will make a jump. "A lot of times, like I've said in the past, these guys, they do take a big jump from Year 1 to Year 2, and hopefully we see that with Tytus." Max Scharping should improve off a solid rookie campaign. Center Nick Martin and guard Zach Fulton are average at best, but if they get above average play at the other three positions, it will help the line as a whole. Not a lot of teams in the league have plus-offensive lines.
2) Is O'Brien on to something?
The Texans coach does not like to play rookies in a normal year. But he built this roster with an eye toward veterans because the preparation will not be the same. Whether it works or not, he seemed to be on the right path. Of course, that could just be a justification for burning so many draft picks in trades, but the concept makes sense.
3) Room to add?
The Texans still have about $21 million in cap space. If they don't extend Deshaun Watson, there is room to add two more veterans to the roster. If they do extend him, one more could still be added. The secondary could use some help, so don't be surprised if another addition happens before the start of the season.
4) Rookie coordinators is a bit of a concern.
Tim Kelly and Anthony Weaver might be world-class coordinators someday. But both are essentially rookies when it comes to play calling duties. That can't be a positive with less time to prepare for the season. They also have a new special teams coordinator. Playcallers need action and reps as much as players, especially new ones. It may be mid-season before they can find their stride.
5) What we can expect.
Obviously, counting on Will Fuller to be healthy is like counting on the Rona to disappear tomorrow. But if he can contribute, the offense has a chance to be explosive. Defensively, however, they have not really done anything to improve a unit that has been abysmal for the last few years. It's all guesswork now, but this should be a high scoring offense and a leaky defense. What does all that mean? It's hard to tell, but we are only a month away from getting answers.
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After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or nine games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.
Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after a 4-8 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.
While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez (though not Breggy Bad). A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.
Caratini comes through!
So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.
Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.
Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.
Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.
Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…
Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.