The calm before (and during) the storm
Yes, rain is coming this weekend, but don't be fooled into panicking
Stephen Uzick
Jun 14, 2018, 6:36 am
By now you have likely heard about the tropical “thing” that will be affecting our weather this weekend. If not, welcome back out of your bomb shelter. Also apparently we are pals with North Korea now so you may need to look into re-purposing said shelter. Anyway, the impetus for my writing this unfortunately has to do with the irresponsible manner in which many were informed about this tropical blob.
Late last week I was somewhat shocked and very much disheartened to see how a few local TV meteorologists (who shall remain nameless) introduced this tropical feature into their forecasts for this upcoming weekend. These meteorologists posted images of one computer model run (of which there are four runs per day) showing a hurricane barreling into Galveston Bay this weekend, and one was even bold enough to include a graphic in his forecast that said in big letters “FATHERS DAY HURRICANE????” I cringed watching this because I knew people’s reaction would be panic.
What makes those actions even worse and indefensible in my opinion is that the computer model they sent out into the public domain is well known among meteorologists to have a bias towards spinning up false alarm tropical storms and hurricanes in longer range forecasts, only to back off of those storms as the forecast date approaches. It is a problem what has been well documented in the meteorological community this year, and yet some of the local meteorologists thought it was prudent to put that out to an audience they know has high storm anxiety. Weather computer models are a bit like a good kitchen knife; if used properly they can be a great tool, but if used recklessly they can be incredibly dangerous.
So with that said, I wanted to take a couple of minutes and realistically explain what the weather situation is this weekend because I know the mention of tropical weather and even just rain sends the city’s collective anxiety levels skyrocketing these days.
A tropical wave (a disorganized blob of rain and thunderstorms) is moving through the southwest Caribbean and will cross into the Gulf of Mexico early this weekend. Any time there is this kind of disturbance over water in the summer it gets watched for tropical development. However, despite the hype you may have heard about this system it does not look like conditions in the Gulf will be overly favorable for it to develop a defined circulation to become a named tropical system. The National Hurricane Center presently gives it a 20% chance to develop. That’s a pretty low chance, but even if it did technically become a tropical depression or tropical storm that characterization would be of little consequence for its impacts. Regardless of whether it spins and has a name or if it just remains an amorphous blob of rich tropical moisture its effect on our weather will be the same… it’s going to rain.
Right now it looks waves of rain and thunderstorms could begin by Sunday and last through Monday night or into Tuesday. It could certainly rain on Saturday too but the heavy stuff looks to come in beginning on Sunday.
It is likely everyone in the Houston metro area gets rain, but it remains to be seen how far inland heavy rain can make it. The further north and west you go the lower the heavy rain chances become. For the most part though rain should be fairly widespread, however it is almost impossible to know which exact areas will see the heaviest rain this far out, which leads me to my next point
This is the question on everyone’s mind. Currently the official forecast is for most of the area to see on average between 2 and 5 inches between Sunday and Tuesday, however some spots could see higher amounts. With this type of tropical airmass localized spots of 9-10 inches wouldn’t be unfathomable. Yet as I mentioned above pinpointing those spots is nearly impossible. The computer models have been spraying those higher bull’s eyes all over the place for the past day or two and will likely continue to do so until the event is actually here.
There is good news though. Over the past few months the area has begun a descent into 690 below normal rainfall. That means the ground is dry and can absorb a good deal of water before flooding issues start. Two to five inches of rain and maybe even a little more over the course of two or three days will be tolerable and probably more beneficial than problematic. If you happen to be in a spot that gets those higher totals or in a spot where those multiple inches fall in a short period of time then there may be some street flooding in spots. However, despite what some local media may be insinuating this does not look to be a widespread or damaging flood event.
I know any kind of rain still makes many many people around here nervous and probably will for some time. I get it, my house flooded in Harvey too. However tropical rains like this and tropical storms/hurricanes are a fact of life in this part of the world. Harvey wasn’t our last hurricane, but not every hurricane or tropical storm will be a Harvey. The best thing you can do for your safety, and frankly your sanity is to be prepared during hurricane season and find a trusted source for weather information such as the National Weather Service (weather.gov or on twitter @nwshouston) or the national hurricane center (www.nhc.noaa.gov).
Despite a last-minute comeback attempt by Gonzaga on Saturday, the Cougars defeated the Bulldogs and advanced to the Sweet 16 for the sixth straight NCAA Tournament.
Houston will face the No.4 seed Purdue, who made it to the championship game last year.
The Boilermakers will be one of the toughest opponents the Cougars have faced thus far and will essentially have the home-court advantage with the game taking place in Indianapolis.
Despite the daunting matchup on paper, Houston is currently an -8.5 favorite to win this game. The Cougars should be able to handle Purdue so long as their offense stays hot and they continue to play defense at an elite level.
Keep the offense flowing
Houston guard LJ Cryer matched a career-high with 30 points against Gonzaga and has been the offensive focal point of this team.
This season, the Baylor transfer has averaged 15.6 points per game and has stepped up to be one of the unquestioned leaders of this team.
In addition to Cryer, the Cougars have Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp, who can carry the offensive load as they did during the Big 12 Tournament and against SIUE on Thursday.
J’Wan Roberts is another key factor for Houston’s success. The senior forward seems to have recovered from his ankle injury and has been a productive player since returning to the lineup.
Roberts leads the team in rebounds and is one of the most efficient scorers for the Cougars, averaging more than 50% from the field over his last five seasons.
Houston’s dynamic offense and elite defense makes this team one of the toughest to beat during the tournament.
Containing Purdue’s stars
The Boilermakers have two proficient scorers on their team, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Braden Smith, who each average over 15 points per game.
Kaufman-Renn scored 22 points in his previous game against McNeese State and has been one of Purdue’s best players for most of this year.
Roberts and Joseph Tuggler will likely be assigned to the junior forward to slow down his offense, forcing his teammates to step up.
Smith is Purdue’s second-leading scorer, averaging 16 points per game, and has the most assists and steals for the Boilermakers this season.
Both Uzan and Cyrer, who have been elite parameter defenders, will cover the Purdue guard and limit his production.
Containing both Kaufman-Renn and Smith will be Houston’s top priority and the key to come away victorious.
Play Cougar basketball
Head coach Kelvin Sampson has now made it to at least the Sweet 16 six consecutive times and has his team well-positioned to make another deep tournament run.
Since arriving in Houston, the 69-year-old coach has turned this program from an afterthought to one of the best basketball teams in the country year after year.
Sampson’s key to his success is instilling a defensive-first mentality into his team and getting the best effort out of his players.
This season is no different, as Houston has the number-one ranked defense in the nation and is holding their opponents to 58.4 points per game on average.
If the Cougars can create consistent offense and continue playing defense at an elite level, they should win this game with ease and advance to the Elite 8 for the first time in three years.
The Houston-Purdue game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium on Friday at 9 pm. The winner will play either Kentucky or Tennessee in the next round.