NOTHING IS CERTAIN
Here's why you shouldn't jump the gun on Mike D'Antoni just yet
May 8, 2020, 2:58 pm
NOTHING IS CERTAIN
It feels impossible to be writing about basketball during this pandemic, but here we are.
Recently, reports have started to circulate that the Rockets are entertaining new head coaches. From Tom Thibodeau to Jeff Van Gundy, the rumor mill is abuzz about how Houston will eventually part ways with current head coach Mike D'Antoni and move on this offseason.
I'm writing this, not to dismiss reports from respected reporters like Sam Amick or Marc Berman, but to merely offer my perspective, given what we know.
While it is true that D'Antoni is on the final year of his contract, the Rockets have yet to formally give an indication that they're planning to let him go. In fact, Tilman Fertitta and Daryl Morey have both claimed they would love to have him back and that this past summer was just a contract dispute.
But talk is cheap. Morey also said the Rockets would "100%" bring Chris Paul back this season before trading him a few weeks later. I don't blame anyone for not giving the Rockets the benefit of the doubt. Until a new contract extension is agreed to, we must assume things are still up in the air.
However, the first point is still important to note: Houston has yet to dismiss the idea of bringing him back. While pundits have already started to discuss possible replacements, D'Antoni is still under contract and coaching a very good basketball team. The fate of the NBA season has yet to be decided, a champion has yet to be crowned, and people have completely dismissed the veteran coach.
People are quick to discuss what D'Antoni hasn't done in Houston, but seldom what he's been able to accomplish in a short amount of time. D'Antoni's logged four 50+ win seasons, a franchise record 65 wins in 2017-18, two Western Conference semifinals appearances, and a Western Conference Finals birth that came eight points short of the NBA Finals. He holds the franchise record for career winning percentage as a head coach.
When the Rockets looked broken and without an identity, D'Antoni helped repair the structure and give them one. An identity that won hundreds of basketball games and nearly delivered them a Larry O'Brian trophy. He forged a close relationship with James Harden that still endures to this day.
That last point is important because it's very difficult to gain the trust of a superstar player like Harden. The balancing act of egos and talent is very delicate, but D'Antoni's been able to do that quite well with Harden. Harden trusts D'Antoni, but will he be able to do that with a new coach? Will he be able to trust the organization if they let D'Antoni go?
The Rockets aren't naive about all of this. It will go into their calculus this summer and it should be present when others discuss his job security.
There's also the all-important matter of what happens in the playoffs this year (assuming there is a postseason). If the Rockets win the title this year, there's little doubt that the organization will do everything in their power to bring D'Antoni back, but that almost goes without saying. What if they fall short, but still make the Finals? How about the Conference Finals?
Would it make a difference if they made the NBA Finals and got swept or made the Conference Finals, but fell short in seven games?
These are all important questions that have yet to be answered and will likely play a role in if D'Antoni is brought back or not. Assuming he's gone before the playoffs begin feels a little naive given what we know historically about how these kinds of decisions are made. We know the playoffs matter because teams who win at the highest levels don't fire their head coaches and the teams that fall short of internal expectations do.
It's also important to note that the Rockets have completely reshaped their identity as a team over the past six months in D'Antoni's image. Morey cited D'Antoni as one of the primary reasons for acquiring Robert Covington. Micro-ball works because D'Antoni was able to get the players to buy-in to the philosophy from top-down. It's the natural evolution of the way he's always wanted to play the game of basketball. Pace and space in 2020 doesn't require a rim-running center like Clint Capela, it requires a small-ball five like P.J. Tucker.
A new coach would have to embrace this identity in a way that wouldn't be as authentic as it is with D'Antoni at the helm. Then again, the Rockets could just reshape their roster in the offseason and develop a new identity, but is this constant shuffling what you want to do with 30-year-old James Harden on your roster? The Rockets will have to ask themselves all of these questions (and more) when making their decision this summer.
However, more importantly, we all have to take this into consideration when talking about it like a forgone conclusion. These decisions are more complicated than the surface-level analysis you see on Twitter.
Alex Bregman couldn’t hold back the smile when he was asked who might have had the biggest impact on his decision to sign with the Boston Red Sox.
“My favorite player Dustin Pedroia,” Bregman said of the club's former second baseman and two-time World Series champion.
“He reached out a few times this offseason and talked about how special it was to be a part of the Boston Red Sox,” Bregman said Sunday. “It was really cool to be able to talk to him as well as so many other former players here in Boston and current players on the team as well.”
A day after Bregman's $120 million, three-year contract was announced, he sat at a 25-minute news conference between his agent, Scott Boras, and Boston Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow. Manager Alex Cora, who gave Bregman a hug after he handed the infielder his No. 2 jersey, also was at the table along with team president Sam Kennedy.
Breslow and Cora wouldn't say whether Bregman would move to play second base, Pedroia's position, or remain at third — a position manned by Rafael Devers since July 2017.
A few players, Jarren Duran and Rob Refsnyder among them, and coaches stood behind the seated reporters to listen.
Bregman gets a $5 million signing bonus, a $35 million salary this season and $40 million in each of the following two years, with some of the money deferred, and he can opt out after the 2025 and 2026 seasons to become a free agent again.
Asked why he agreed to the shorter contract with opt outs, he leaned forward to the microphone in front of him and replied: “I just think I believe in my abilities.”
Originally selected by Boston in the 29th round of the 2012 amateur draft, Bregman attended LSU before the Houston Astros picked him second overall in 2015. His family history with the Red Sox goes back further.
“My dad grew up sitting on Ted Williams’ lap,” he said.
MLB.com said Stan Bregman, the player's grandfather, was a lawyer who represented the Washington Senators and negotiated Williams' deal to become manager.
Boston has missed the playoffs in five of the last six seasons and had avoided signing the highest-profile free agents. Boras said a conversation with Red Sox controlling owner John Henry showed ownership’s desire to get back to winning.
“I think it was after Soto signed,’’ Boras said, citing the record contract he negotiated for Juan Soto with the Mets. “We had a discussion. I could tell knowing John back with the Marlins and such, he had a real onus about ‘we need to do things differently than what we’ve done before.’
“This is a point and time where I believe Red Sox ownership was hungry for championship play and exhausted with what had happened the last five, six years.”
Called the “perfect fit” by Breslow, the 30-year-old Bregman joined the Red Sox after winning two World Series titles and reaching the playoffs in eight consecutive seasons with Houston.
“I’ve been fortunate enough to be in the playoffs the first eight years of my career, and I plan on continuing to do that here,” he said in his opening remarks. “I’m a winning player and this is a winning organization.”
Coming off an 81-81 season, the Red Sox acquired left-hander Garrett Crochet from the White Sox and signed fellow pitchers Walker Buehler, Patrick Sandoval, Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson during the offseason.
After the pitching moves, they found a right-handed bat, too.
“As the offseason progressed it just became clearer and clearer that Alex was the perfect fit for what we were trying to accomplish,” Breslow said.
Bregman ranks first among players with at least 75 career plate appearances in Fenway Park with an OPS of 1.240.
“He fits like a glove for our organization,” Kennedy said.