Lebron was great in Game 2, but the Pacers have been a good bet all year. Gregory Shamus
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Game 3
Indiana returns home with an added dash after stealing home court in Game 1. Another boost in the belief of the Pacers will be the fact that LeBron practically had to put the team on his back in Game 2, dropping 46 points, and still, the Pacers were able to hang tough while taking the Cavs best punch. The Cavaliers outscored the Pacers by 15 in the first quarter but failed to carry the momentum into the rest of the game. Indiana was able to outscore the Cavaliers in the remaining three quarters and have now outperformed Cleveland in five of the eight quarters played in this series.
Listed as -700 favorites, I'm not convinced the Cavs are the better team overall. Indiana is now 2-0 ATS in the series, and it comes as no surprise for a team that covered the spread 58.3 percent of the time in the regular season. This season, Indiana has rewarded backers when playing at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, where they were 24-17 ATS. Indiana flew under the radar this year, but this has been a team that has over-exceeded expectations in every way. A revealing sign of a good team is one that knows how to learn from its losses, and the Pacers have done just that covering the line in 21 of their 34 contests following a loss (61.8 percent).
The Pick
Although Im slightly worried about LeBron going bezerk again, knowing that’s really the only way this team can contend, I lean with the team playing better at the moment. The Pacers' Victor Oladipo has been carrying the team on his back, and playing at home will add to his confidence leading the Pacers to a 2-1 series lead.
Pacers PK
Pacers Team Total over 104.5
SATURDAY
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Game 3
Saturday evening we travel to Minneapolis in a pivotal matchup for the home team. After giving the Rockets all they could handle in Game 1, the grudge match saw Houston dominate for three quarters, never leaving the spread in question down the stretch, An abysmal shooting performance by James Harden was washed away by the efforts of Chris Paul, the opposite of Game 1. When listed as an away favorite, the Rockets are 23-13 ATS (63.9 percent) winning by an average margin of 9 points per game. Both teams struggle covering the number off 2-3 days rest where the Timberwolves are 7-8 and the Rockets 8-11.
The Pick
I expect the Timberwolves to be more efficient at home and play much better at home. The only problem is in both games either Harden or Paul were off their game, and sooner or later both will be on the same wavelength. If the Wolves want to make this series competitive, this is a must win. The over in Wolves games at home was profitable during the regular season as they saw the total clear the number in 60% of those games. This might be the lone game Minnesota wins this series, and to do that they must score plenty. With the Rockets finally starting to hit shots, and Minnesota playing with he crowd behind them, look for this game to go Over.
Over 214
Saturday soccer
England
Tottenham vs. Manchester United
Both teams to score
Germany
Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayer Leverkusen
Over 3
France
Bordeaux vs. PSG
Over 3
Sunday
England
Swansea vs. Manchester City
over 3.5
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.