GAMBLING GUIDE

2018 NBA Playoffs: Odds, trends and picks

2018 NBA Playoffs: Odds, trends and picks
No Steph Curry in Round 1 for Golden State. Patrick Smith/Getty Images

With 82 games down and an added 5 minutes of overtime for the final spot in the West brings us here. The NBA Playoffs, let the games begin.

Updated Playoff NBA Championship Odds

2017-18 NBA CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS                  

Golden State Warriors    +135

Houston Rockets    +160

Cleveland Cavaliers    +650

Toronto Raptors    +850     

Philadelphia 76ers    +1500

Oklahoma City Thunder    +2500

Portland Trail Blazers    +3300

Utah Jazz    +4500

San Antonio Spurs    +6000

Boston Celtics    +7000

Minnesota Timberwolves    +9000

Washington Wizards    +10000

New Orleans Pelicans    +10000

Milwaukee Bucks    +10000

Indiana Pacers    +10000

Miami Heat    +15000

As expected. Houston and Golden State lead the way paying out substantially less than the rest of the field. The next team up in term of betting odds, Cleveland, sits at +650 leading the East, although they finished fourth in the conference. Before the season started, the inevitable finals clash between the Warriors and Cavaliers had LeBron James and company priced at +500, now after all the turmoil of this season, you can get greater odds.

The sleeper on everyone's radar seems to be Philidelphia sitting at +1500. While this might seem like a decent price for a team playing as well as anyone in the league, the truth is someone is sitting out there with a pre-NBA season ticket with the 76ers at +15000. In this year's field, there are a few preseason longshots, before the season tipping off the Blazers, Jazz, Timberwolves, and Pacers were all +15000 to win the title.

The hometown Houston Rockets odds dropped considerably from the beginning of the year, where preseason they could be had at +700, now you're getting +160/+190.

While some teams overexceeded expectations and lost odds, others played under the radar and pay out larger amounts than betting them at the beginning of the year leaving backers scratching their heads.

             Current  | Pre Season

Spurs      +6000   +1500

Celitics   +7000   +2000

Wizards  +10000   +5000

Bucks      +10000 +7500

Heat        +15000 +12500

Series odds

Eastern Conference - First Round

Boston vs. Milwaukee

Celtics (-150)

Bucks (+130)

Philadelphia vs. Miami

76ers (-550)

Heat (+420)

Toronto vs. Washington

Raptors (-650)

Wizards (+480)

Cleveland vs. Indiana

Cavaliers (-650)

Pacers (+480)

Western Conference - First Round

Oklahoma City vs. Utah

Thunder (-135)

Jazz (+115)

Portland vs. New Orleans

Trail Blazers (-225)

Pelicans (+190)

Golden State vs. San Antonio

Warriors (-1500)

Spurs (+900)

Houston vs. Minnesota

Rockets (-6000)

Timberwolves (+2000)

ATS Trends

Boston vs. Milwaukee

Boston 50-30-2 ATS

Boston 22-17-2 ATS at home

Boston 30-25-2 ATS as the favorite

Milwaukee 35-44-3 ATS

Milwaukee 22-18-1 ATS on the road

Milwaukee 15-18-1 ATS as a dog.

Philadelphia vs. Miami

Philadelphia 47-33-2 ATS

Philadelphia 27-14 ATS at home

Philadelphia  34-21 as the favorite

Miami 40-36-6 ATS

Miami 24-15-2 ATS on the road

Miami 22-15-3 ATS as the dog

Toronto vs. Washington

Toronto  43-38-1 ATS

Toronto 21-19-1 ATS at home

Toronto 34-33-1 ATS as the favorite

Washington 37-44-1  ATS

Washington  21-20 ATS on the road

Washington 18-11 ATS as the dog

Cleveland vs. Indiana

Cleveland 32-49-1 ATS

Cleveland  13-27-1 ATS at home

Cleveland 19-44-1 ATS as the favorite

Indiana 47-35 ATS   

Indiana 23-18 ATS on the road   

Indiana 22-22 ATS as the dog   

Oklahoma City vs. Utah

Oklahoma City   34-47-1 ATS

Oklahoma City  16-24-1 ATS at home

Oklahoma City   27-41-1 ATS as the favorite

Utah  43-38-1 ATS

Utah  21-19-1 ATS on the road

Utah 20-17 ATS as the dog

Portland vs. New Orleans

Portland 45-31-6 ATS

Portland 22-14-5 ATS at home

Portland 28-20-4 ATS as the favorite

New Orleans  45-36-1 ATS

New Orleans  19-21-1 ATS on the road

New Orleans  18-18 ATS as the dog   

Golden State vs. San Antonio

Golden State 34-47-1 ATS   

Golden State 16-24-1 ATS at home

Golden State 33-42-1 ATS as the favorite

San Antonio 40-38-4 ATS

San Antonio 15-24-2 ATS on the road

San Antonio 10-12-1 ATS as the dog

Houston vs. Minnesota

Houston 41-39-2 ATS

Houston 17-23-1 ATS at home

Houston 39-34-2 ATS as the favorite   

Minnesota 37-42-3 ATS

Minnesota 17-23-1 ATS on the road

Minnesota 13-18 ATS as the dog

Weekend Picks

Thunder vs Jazz Game 1

Under 205

Rockets vs. Thunder Game 1

Rockets Team Total over 114

Warriors vs. Spurs Game 1

Spurs+8

Blazers vs. Pelicans Game 1

Over 217

Blazers Team Total over 111

76ers vs. Heat Game 1

76ers 1st quarter -2

76ers first half -4

Celtics win series

Thunder win series

For any questions or comments reach me @JerryBoknowz on Twitter

 

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The Rockets are in it to win it this year. Composite Getty Image.

While the rolling Astros have a week of possible World Series preview matchups against the Phillies and Cubs, it’s the Rockets who made the biggest local sports headline with their acquisition of Kevin Durant. What a move! Of course there is risk involved in trading for a guy soon to turn 37 years old and who carries an injury history, but balancing risk vs. reward is a part of the game. This is a fabulous move for the Rockets. It’s understood that there are dissenters to this view. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, including people with the wrong opinion! Let’s dig in.

The Rockets had a wonderful season in winning 52 games before their disappointing first-round playoff loss to the Warriors, but like everyone else in the Western Conference, they were nowhere close to Oklahoma City’s caliber. While they finished second in the West, the Rockets only finished four games ahead of the play-in. That letting the stew simmer with further growth among their young players would yield true championship contention was no given for 2025-26 or beyond.

Kevin Durant is one of the 10 greatest offensive players the NBA has ever seen. Among his current contemporaries only Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic make that list. For instance, Durant offensively has clearly been better than the late and legendary Kobe Bryant. To view it from a Houston perspective, Durant has been an indisputably greater offensive force than the amazing Hakeem Olajuwon. But this is not a nostalgia trip in which the Rockets are trading for a guy based on what he used to be. While Durant could hit the wall at any point, living in fear that it’s about to happen is no way to live because KD, approaching his 18th NBA season, is still an elite offensive player.

As to the durability concern, Durant played more games (62) this past season than did Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith, and Tari Eason. The season before he played more games (75) than did VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Alperen Sengun. In each of the last two seasons Durant averaged more minutes per game (36.9) than any Rocket. That was stupid and/or desperate of the Suns, the Rockets will be smarter. Not that the workload eroded Durant’s production or efficiency. Over the two seasons he averaged almost 27 points per game while shooting 52 percent from the floor, 42 percent from behind the three-point line, and 85 percent from the free throw line. Awesomeness. The Rockets made the leap to being a very good team despite a frankly crummy half-court offense. The Rockets ranked 21st among the 30 NBA teams in three-point percentage, and dead last in free throw percentage. Amen Thompson has an array of skills and looks poised to be a unique star. Alas, Thompson has no credible jump shot. VanVleet is not a creator, Smith has limited handle. Adding Durant directly addresses the Rockets’ most glaring weakness.

The price the Rockets paid was in the big picture, minimal, unless you think Jalen Green is going to become a bonafide star. Green is still just 23 years old and spectacular athletically, but nothing he has done over four pro seasons suggests he’s on the cusp of greatness. In no season has Green even shot the league average from the floor or from three. His defense has never been as good as it should be given his athleticism. Compared to some other two-guards who made the NBA move one year removed from high school, four seasons into his career Green is waaaaaay behind where Shae Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Devin Booker were four seasons in, and now well behind his draft classmate Cade Cunningham. Dillon Brooks was a solid pro in two seasons here and shot a career-best from three in 2024-2025, but he’s being replaced by Kevin Durant! In terms of the draft pick capital sent to Phoenix, five second round picks are essentially meaningless. The Rockets have multiple extra first round picks in the coming years. As for the sole first-rounder dealt away, whichever player the Rockets would have taken 10th Wednesday night would have been rather unlikely to crack the playing rotation.

VanVleet signs extension

Re-signing Fred VanVleet to a two-year, 50 million dollar guarantee is sensible. In a vacuum, VanVleet was substantially overpaid at the over 40 mil he made per season the last two. He’s a middle-of-the-pack starting point guard. But his professionalism and headiness brought major value to the Rockets’ kiddie corps while their payroll was otherwise very low. Ideally, Reed Sheppard makes a leap to look like an NBA lead guard in his second season, after a pretty much zippo of a rookie campaign. Sheppard is supposed to be a lights-out shooter. For the Rockets to max out, they need two sharpshooters on the court to balance Thompson’s presence.

For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!

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