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2019 Houston Rockets offseason preview

2019 Houston Rockets offseason preview
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

After losing to the Golden State Warriors for the second consecutive season, the Rockets have a lot of questions to answer. Judging by how their summer started, this team has made it clear that they aren't satisfied with the status quo and want to make meaningful upgrades to all levels of the organization. However Houston's summer will ultimately come down to a battle between continuity and finding ways to upgrade the roster.

The case for continuity

There's a temptation to throw the baby out with the bath water after a devastating playoff loss and the Rockets are no different. Aside from James Harden, there's been serious discussion to trade everyone on Houston's roster amongst fans and media since Game 6. With a general manager like Daryl Morey, the possibility of significant trade will always exist with the Rockets. However, to suggest that the entire foundation Houston's built over the years is flawed and needs to shipped out is flawed logic.

Over the past two seasons, the Houston Rockets have won 82.4% (75-16) of their regular season games and 65.4% of their playoff games (17-9) when James Harden, Chris Paul, and Clint Capela have been healthy. Houston's core is really, really solid and proven to translate to a ton of winning. If the Rockets were to trade one of these players, the package would unlikely increase their title odds for next season. In most cases the Rockets are better off holding on to their core three and trying to improve around the roster.

The case for major shake up

The one caveat might be Capela, as the 25-year-old center holds the most value in relation to his contract on the roster (outside of James Harden) if Houston were to pursue a star this summer. If the Rockets were making calls about acquiring another All-Star player, those conversations likely all start with Capela. Capela is still young, athletic, and on a stellar contract laced with team-friendly incentives.

Outside of trading for another star, the best case you could make for major change would be financial flexibility. This is, of course, in reference to the idea of trading 34-year-old Chris Paul who still has three years, $124.1 million remaining on his contract. Finding a landing spot for Paul would be extremely difficult and finding a deal that doesn't require Houston forking over multiple draft picks in compensation is highly unlikely. However, if you can find one, trading Paul gives you a viable reset around 29-year-old James Harden.

The Rockets probably regress a decent among next season if they made such a trade, but they can move forward without having to pay significant luxury tax and extend their championship window beyond Paul's prime (if the deal is good enough). That being said, the Rockets have made it clear they are playing for the now and trading Paul sends the opposite message. The likelihood that they find a sweetheart deal is also very slim.

Improving around the edges

Believe it or not, the Rockets actually have more flexibility to improve their roster this year than they did last year. There are several reasons for this:

A) Houston has their core locked in

Last summer, Houston's primary goal was to bring back Chris Paul, Clint Capela, and Gerald Green to new deals. The team had devoted a decent amount of time and resources towards accomplishing that. By having James Harden, Chris Paul, Clint Capela, Eric Gordon, and P.J. Tucker signed under contract for next season, the Rockets can focus on making trades and exploring free agency for competent role players without the burden of trying to lock down their core.

B) No bad contracts

Other than arguably Chris Paul, the Rockets no longer have the damaging weight of a bad contract on their books. Last summer, the Rockets searched far and wide for a possible Ryan Anderson trade before finally unloading his contract to Phoenix. They then spent the next few months doing the same with Brandon Knight. Both Anderson and Knight limited Houston's trade flexibility and the team now can work with only reasonable salaries that teams might actually be attracted in.

C) Freedom to use full taxpayer mid-level exception

The Rockets spent last summer using small pieces of their mid-level exception before letting their lump sum go to waste. One of the reasons for this is Houston saw an opportunity at the trade deadline to get under the luxury tax and avoid future repeater tax penalties. Now that Morey has been given the green light to spend into the luxury tax this summer, they can now use their taxpayer mid-level exception to acquire a useful role player.

D) Ability to upgrade exists

When you win franchise-high 65 games and barely miss out on the NBA Finals, it's really hard to upgrade the team. The Rockets essentially went into the offseason with the goal of not regressing. Now, coming off a "pretty good, but not great" 53 wins and a second round elimination, the Rockets can legitimately upgrade the roster in significant ways.

For example, the Rockets were a really small team all season, resulting an a porous defensive rebounding percentage of 70% (29th in the NBA). This was a huge reason the Rockets were largely mediocre on defense (18th in the NBA). Size and defensive versatility is a clear and identifiable need.

NBA: Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Who do you keep?

Another question the Rockets will have to ask themselves is who to retain among their own free agents. Iman Shumpert, Danuel House, Austin Rivers, Kenneth Faried, Trevon Duval, and Vincent Edwards are all free agents this summer and Houston likely won't keep all of them. Expect the Rockets to prioritize certain free agents and try their best to retain others.

Iman Shumpert ($16.5 million cap hold): It's hard to imagine the Rockets not making re-signing Shumpert one of their top priorities this offseason. Houston acquired Shumpert in a deal at the trade deadline that cost them their 2019 first round pick. Wing-depth is hard to find on the open market, the Rockets have sought after Shumpert for many years, and they hold his full-bird rights. That means the Rockets can effectively pay Shumpert any number they want to stay.

There wouldn't be a need for cap space or even an exception so as long as Shumpert and his representation aren't asking for the moon, the Rockets should be able to work out a deal with him. It'll be interesting to see what kind of deal Shumpert will get.

Danuel House ($1.9 million cap hold if given a qualifying offer): House's free agency is one of the more unique situations in the NBA as the 25-year-old swingman is a restricted free agent with only partial bird rights. House provided valuable playing time for Houston at a time when they needed every bit of of competent rotation minutes they could find. The most the Rockets can pay House would be the taxpayer mid-level exception and Houston may look to use that on a veteran who's more proven. House turned down a three-year veteran's minimum contract offer this season and it's still unknown if that was a wise decision or not because it's impossible to know what his market value is.

House went from playing 25.1 minutes per game in the regular season, providing elite three-point shooting (41.6%) and nice defensive versatility to being a near-non factor in the playoffs (Player Efficiency Rating - 4.4). Even so, Houston could be out-priced for his services based on his regular season contributions. It's worth noting that the Rockets could also offer a Non-Bird raise that would total at around four years, $8.7 million, a raise from the three year minimum offered in the season.

Austin Rivers ($1.6 million cap hold): This one's tricky, because even though Rivers provided the Rockets with really nice, consistent bench value throughout the regular season and playoffs, it may cost a hefty sum to keep him. Although he signed for a minimum after he was waived by the Suns, Rivers has earned an average salary of $6.6 million throughout his career. It would likely take most of Houston's mid-level exception to retain his services. Signing Rivers to a mid-level isn't bad value, but 'not bad' isn't the kind of value Houston is looking to get with their mid-level. The Rockets likely want to hit it out of the park and sign someone who could be a major contributing piece come playoff time next season.

Rivers was a nice add for Houston this season. He played tough defense, filled a playmaking hole when Chris Paul got injured, and was a steady presence. The sweet spot for Houston may be if Rivers takes a pay cut and accepts his Non-Bird raise of $2.6 million. However, what's more likely is the Rockets re-sign him for the taxpayer MLE or simply lose him.

Kenneth Faried ($1.6 million cap hold): I wrote back in January that it seemed Faried was essentially built in a lab to play back-up center for Mike D'Antoni on the 2018-19 Rockets and I stand by it. Despite his warts, Faried was an excellent, timely pickup at the time for Houston when Clint Capela went down with injury and he helped fill a need that the Rockets desperately needed at the time. Faried is a strong pick-and-roll finisher with good rebounding prowess, but his defensive limitations ultimately led to his undoing. Faried went from playing 19.7 minutes per game in the regular season to playing 9.7 minutes per game in the playoffs. His liabilities against a team like the Warriors made it impossible for D'Antoni to continue playing him. It's hard to see Faried returning to Houston unless he's willing to take a veteran's minimum.

Gerald Green ($1.6 million cap hold): The question of whether or not Gerald Green will be a member of the 2018-19 Rockets or not is ultimately going to come down to whether or not Houston wants to keep him. The Rockets hold Green's early bird rights and can offer Green any contract up to $9.7 million this summer, which would be well above his market value. Shumpert took a hometown discount (veteran's minimum) to return to the team last summer and could do the same now if it were offered to him. Green provides a positive attitude to the Rockets, adequate floor spacing, and he's garnered the trust of head coach Mike D'Antoni. However, his porous defense is hard to ignore and if the team decides they want to use the roster spot on someone else, it's difficult to blame them.

Extensions?

Two players to watch in regards to contract extensions would be Eric Gordon and P.J. Tucker. Gordon is approaching the final year of his contract and the Rockets had tried to extend him last summer. Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta told the Houston Chronicle that the team would like to extend Gordon if possible. This makes sense as Gordon had a great season for the Rockets and played a huge part in the Rockets becoming one of the more unstoppable offenses in NBA history these past few years. Gordon's ability to attack off the dribble, space the floor, and play competent defense has made him one of Houston's most attractive trade assets.

The highest first-year salary Houston could offer Gordon in an extension is about $16.9 million and could max out at four-years, $76.6 million. P.J. Tucker on the other hand has two years, $16.3 million remaining on his salary. It's unlikely the Rockets extend Tucker for too long beyond that, but if a deal could be worked out a favorable salary for Houston, it's worth exploring.

Replacing Jeff Bzdelik and Co.

With the Rockets letting go of assistant coaches Jeff Bzdelik, Roy Rogers, Mitch Vanya, and Irv Roland, they now have huge roles to fill on the defensive side of their coaching staff. Shams Charania of The Athletic reported that the Rockets had pursued former Cleveland Cavaliers head coach Ty Lue, but it's unlikely Lue accepts anything but a head coaching position at his next stop. Stephen Silas, Chris Finch, Ime Udoka, and Jeff Hornacek are all names to watch as possible replacements for Bzdelik as all have been linked to the Rockets in some way shape or form over the past few years. Silas had become a real finalist for the head coaching opening in 2016 and Chris Finch had spent two years with the Rio Grande Valley before spending six with the Rockets as an assistant under Kevin McHale. The Rockets are expected to conduct an interview process soon, but the search has certainly become complicated by the uncertainty about head coach Mike D'Antoni

Bottom line

The biggest driving force behind Houston's offseason this summer will ultimately be spending. If the Rockets are willing to spend deep into the luxury tax and get creative, the makings of a nice offseason are there. If not, it's hard to foresee the Rockets becoming a markedly better team heading into next season. The risk for entering the repeater tax has been significantly mitigated by the Rockets dodging the tax completely this season, so there's no reason they shouldn't do what's necessary to compete at the highest level. As we've learned for the past decade, no offseason is ever boring under GM Daryl Morey.

This should be interesting.

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Can the Astros do it again? Composite Getty Image.

Capsules of American League West teams, listed in order of finish last year:

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Houston Astros

2024: 88-73, first place, lost to Detroit in Wild Card Series.

Manager: Joe Espada (second season).

Opening Day: March 27 vs. New York Mets.

He’s Here: 1B Christian Walker, 3B Isaac Paredes, INF Luis Guillorme, RHP Hayden Wesneski.

He’s Outta Here: 3B Alex Bregman, RF Kyle Tucker, RHP Ryan Pressly.

Top Hitters: DH Yordan Alvarez (.308, 35 HRs, 86 RBIs, .959 OPS), C Yainer Diaz (.299, 16, 84, 29 2Bs), LF Jose Altuve (.295, 20, 65, 31 2Bs, 94 runs), 1B Christian Walker (.251, 26, 84, .803 OPS with Arizona), SS Jeremy Pena (.266, 15, 70, 28 2Bs).

Projected Rotation: LH Framber Valdez (15-7, 2.91 ERA), RH Hunter Brown (11-9, 3.49), RH Ronel Blanco (13-6, 2.80), RH Spencer Arrighetti (7-13, 4.53), RH Hayden Wesneski (3-6, 3.86).

Key Relievers: LH Josh Hader (8-8, 3.80 ERA, 34 saves), RH Bryan Abreu (3-3, 3.10, 1 save), RH Tayler Scott (7-3, 2.23), LH Bennett Sousa (0-0, 4.00 in 2023), RH Kaleb Ort (1-1, 2.55, 1 save).

Outlook: The Astros should contend for a fifth straight AL West title despite trading outfielder Tucker and losing longtime third baseman Bregman in free agency. They made a major upgrade at first base with the addition of Walker after failing to find consistency there last season after the release of José Abreu. It will be interesting to see how Paredes fares in replacing Bregman and how Altuve’s move to left field will go after the veteran superstar played second base exclusively for his first 14 seasons. Valdez returns to lead a rotation that will start the season with several young arms but that could get a boost in the summer with the expected returns of Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia after both players had Tommy John surgery last year. General manager Dana Brown is confident that this team can have a bounce-back year and make another deep playoff run after losing to Detroit in the Wild Card round last season.

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Seattle Mariners

2024: 85-77, second place.

Manager: Dan Wilson (first full season).

Opening Day: March 27 vs. Athletics.

He’s Here: INF Donovan Solano, INF/OF Miles Mastrobuoni.

He’s Outta Here: RHP Yimi García, 3B Josh Rojas, 3B Luis Urías, 1B Justin Turner.

Top Hitters: CF Julio Rodríguez (.273, 20 HRs, 68 RBIs, .734 OPS, all career lows), C Cal Raleigh (.220, career-high 34, career-high 100). SS J.P. Crawford (career-low .202, 9, 37 in 105 games), DH Mitch Garver (.172, 15, 51), 2B Jorge Polanco (.212, 16, 45).

Projected Rotation: RH Luis Castillo (11-12, 3.64 ERA, 175 Ks in 175 1/3 IP), RH Logan Gilbert (9-12, 3.23, 220 Ks in major league-high 208 2/3 IP, major league-best 0.887 WHIP), RH Bryce Miller (12-8, 2.94), RH Bryan Woo (9-3, 2.89 in 22 starts), RH Emerson Hancock (4-4, 4.75 in 12 starts).

Key Relievers: RH Andrés Muñoz (3-7, 2.12 ERA, 22/27 saves, 77 Ks in 59 1/3 IP), RH Trent Thornton (4-3, 3.61), RH Colin Snider (3-4, 1.94), RH Troy Taylor (0-0, 3.72), LH Taylor Saucedo (2-0, 3.49, 3 saves).

Outlook: Seattle has finished with winning records in four straight seasons for the first time but has made the playoffs just once in that span, in 2022, when it was swept by Houston in the Division Series. The Mariners went 21-13 last year after Wilson replaced Scott Servais as manager on Aug. 22. The manager swap is likely the biggest change heading into opening day from 2024. Seattle’s most notable offseason additions included signing Solano and acquiring Mastrobuoni from the Chicago Cubs. The Mariners hope for a rebound by Rodríguez, who had just four homers and 21 RBIs through June. The lack of offense was a team-wide problem: Seattle hit .224, 29th among the 30 teams, ahead only the 121-loss Chicago White Sox. Right-hander George Kirby (13-10, 3.35, 172 Ks, 19 walks, MLB-low 1.084 walks per 9 innings) is likely to open the season on the injured list because of right shoulder inflammation, leading to an opening for Hancock to join the rotation.

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Texas Rangers

2024: 78-84, third place.

Manager: Bruce Bochy (third season).

Opening Day: March 27 vs. Boston.

Here’s Here: 1B Jake Burger, C Kyle Higashioka, RHP Chris Martin, LHP Hoby Milner, DH Joc Pederson, RHP Jacob Webb.

He’s Outta Here: C Carson Kelly, OF Travis Jankowski, LHP Andrew Heaney, RHP José Leclerc, 1B Nathaniel Lowe, RHP David Robertson, RHP Kirby Yates.

Top Hitters: SS Corey Seager (.278, 30 HRs, 74 RBIs, .864 OPS), RF Adolis García (.224, 25, 85, 177 Ks), 2B Marcus Semien (.237, 23, 74), 1B Jake Burger (.250, 29, 76 with Marlins), DH Joc Pederson (.275, 23, 64 with Diamondbacks), OF Wyatt Langford (.253, 16, 74, 19 SBs).

Projected Rotation: RH Nathan Eovaldi (12-8, 3.80 ERA, 166 Ks in 170 2/3 IP), RH Jon Gray (5-6, 4.47), LH Cody Bradford (6-3, 3.54), RH Jacob deGrom (0-0, 1.69 in three starts), RH Tyler Mahle (0-1, 4.97).

Key Relievers: RH Chris Martin (3-1, 3.45 ERA, 2 saves in 45 appearances with Boston), RH Luke Jackson (4-3, 5.09 in 52 games with Giants and Braves), RH Jacob Webb (2-5, 3.02 in 60 appearances for Orioles), LH Hoby Milner (5-1, 4.73 in 61 appearances for Brewers), LH Robert Garcia (3-6, 4.22 in 72 appearances for Nationals), RH Dane Dunning (5-7, 5.31 in 26 games, 15 starts).

Outlook: The starting rotation is in good shape with Eovaldi re-signed, and two-time Cy Young Award winner deGrom and Mahle both making late-season debuts last year after recovering from elbow surgery. There is no defined closer after Yates left in free agency and with Josh Sborz rehabbing from shoulder surgery, but Martin joins his hometown team for a prominent role at the back end of a restructured bullpen. Burger and Pederson add pop to an offense that last year hit 57 fewer homers and scored one run less per game than when winning the franchise's first World Series title with Bochy in 2023. These Rangers may not be far off from at least having a shot at repeating a unique pattern for Bochy, who won three World Series crowns with San Francisco from 2010-14. After each of those first two titles, the Giants missed the playoffs the following year before coming back to win another one. Texas still has Semien, Seager and Jung on the infield. García seeks a bounce-back season in the outfield, likely joined out there by young standouts Langford and Evan Carter.

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Athletics

2024: 69-93, fourth place.

Manager: Mark Kotsay (fourth season).

Opening Day: March 27 at Seattle.

He’s Here: RHP Luis Severino, 3B Gio Urshela, LHP Jeffrey Springs, RH Jose Leclerc, INF Luis Urias, LHP Jacob Lopez.

He’s Outta Here: RHP Ross Stripling, 3B Abraham Toro, LHP Alex Wood, LHP Scott Alexander, RHP Austin Adams, OF Daz Cameron, 3B J.D. Davis, SS Nick Allen, 1B Ryan Noda.

Top Hitters: DH Brent Rooker (.293, 39 HRs, 112 RBI, .927 OPS), C Shea Langeliers (.224, 29, 80, .739 OPS), OF Lawrence Butler (.262, 22, 57, .807 OPS), OF JJ Bleday (.243, 20, 60, .762 OPS), 2B Zack Gelof (.211, 17, 49, 25 SBs).

Projected Rotation: RH Luis Severino (11-7, 3.91 ERA with the New York Mets), LH JP Sears (11-13, 4.38), LH Jeffrey Springs (2-2, 3.27 with Tampa Bay), RH Osvaldo Bido (5-3, 3.41), RH Joey Estes (7-9, 5.01) OR RH Mitch Spence (8-10, 4.58).

Key Relievers: RH Mason Miller (2-2, 2.49, 28/31 saves, 14.4 Ks/9 IP), RH Jose Leclerc (6-5, 4.32, 1 save with Texas), LH T.J. McFarland (2-4, 3.81), RH Tyler Ferguson (4-2, 3.68, 2 saves).

Outlook: The A’s begin a temporary stay in the Sacramento area this season. They will play at least the next three seasons at a Triple-A stadium as they wait for their new home to be built in Las Vegas. Their final season in Oakland was emotional and showed some signs of progress with a 19-win improvement. The A’s increased their spending this offseason as they needed a higher payroll in order to get a full share in revenue sharing. Severino, Butler and Rooker all got deals worth at least $60 million after the franchise had handed out one deal that rich ever before this season. They should be competitive but still likely lack the depth of talent to compete for the postseason.

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Los Angeles Angels

2024: 63-99, fifth place.

Manager: Ron Washington (second season).

Opening day: March 27 at Chicago White Sox.

He’s Here: LHP Yusei Kikuchi, DH Jorge Soler, RHP Kenley Jansen, RHP Kyle Hendricks, C Travis d’Arnaud, 3B Yoán Moncada, INF Kevin Newman, SS Tim Anderson.

He’s Outta Here: 2B Brandon Drury, C Matt Thaiss, RHP Griffin Canning, LHP Patrick Sandoval, RHP Carson Fulmer, RHP Hunter Strickland, LHP Matt Moore.

Top Hitters: RF Mike Trout (.220, 10 HRs, 14 RBIs in 29 games), OF Taylor Ward (.246, 25, 75, .748 OPS), C Logan O’Hoppe (.244, 20, 56), SS Zach Neto (.249, 23 , 77, .761 OPS, 5.1 WAR), DH Jorge Soler (.241, 21, 64 with Giants and Braves).

Projected Rotation: LH Yusei Kikuchi (9-10, 4.05 ERA, 206 Ks with Blue Jays and Astros), LH Tyler Anderson (10-15, 3.81, 1.29 WHIP, 3.1 WAR), RH Jose Soriano (6-7, 3.42, 97 Ks in 113 innings), LH Reid Detmers (4-9, 6.70, spent three months at Triple-A Salt Lake), RH Kyle Hendricks (4-12, 5.92 for Cubs).

Key Relievers: RH Kenley Jansen (4-2, 3.29, 27/31 saves with Red Sox), RH Ben Joyce (2-0, 2.08, 33 Ks in 34 2/3 innings), RH Ryan Zeferjahn (0-0, 2.12, 18 Ks in 17 innings), RH Chase Silseth (0-1, 6.75 in two appearances).

Outlook: The Angels finished 2024 at rock bottom, losing a club-record 99 games and extending the majors’ longest streaks to nine consecutive losing seasons and 10 straight non-playoff seasons. The sole sign for optimism was solid play from youngsters O’Hoppe, Neto, Soriano, Joyce and Nolan Schanuel. They’re all back to keep building, although Neto will start on the injured list after right shoulder surgery. Trout is healthy again after four consecutive injury-plagued seasons, and the three-time AL MVP is moving from center to right field to preserve his health. Mickey Moniak and Jo Adell should be the primary center fielders. Anthony Rendon is already guaranteed to miss extended playing time for the fourth straight season after the $245 million third baseman announced he needs hip surgery. The rotation is headlined by newcomer Kikuchi, and longtime Dodgers closer Jansen could form a potent late-game combination with the fireballing Joyce.

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