GAME ON!

A new challenge awaits, and the Astros know what’s at stake

Astros Cam Smith, Isaac Paredes, Cubs Kyle Tucker
Kyle Tucker returns to Houston this weekend. Composite Getty Image.

Two first-place teams, identical records, and a weekend set with serious measuring-stick energy.

The Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs open a three-game series Friday night at Daikin Park, in what could quietly be one of the more telling matchups of the summer. Both teams enter at 48-33, each atop their respective divisions — but trending in slightly different directions.

The Astros have been red-hot, going 7-3 over their last 10 while outscoring opponents by 11 runs. They've done it behind one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, with a collective 3.41 ERA that ranks second in the American League. Houston has also been dominant at home, where they’ve compiled a 30-13 record — a stat that looms large heading into this weekend.

On the other side, the Cubs have held their ground in the NL Central but have shown some recent shakiness. They're 5-5 over their last 10 games and have given up 5.66 runs per game over that stretch. Still, the offense remains dangerous, ranking fifth in on-base percentage across the majors. Kyle Tucker leads the way with a .287 average, 16 homers, and 49 RBIs, while Michael Busch has been hot of late, collecting 12 hits in his last 37 at-bats.

Friday’s pitching matchup features Houston’s Brandon Walter (0-1, 3.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) and Chicago’s Cade Horton (3-1, 3.73 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), a promising young arm making one of his biggest starts of the season on the road. Horton will have his hands full with Isaac Paredes, who’s slugged 16 homers on the year, and Mauricio Dubón, who’s found a groove with four home runs over his last 10 games.

It’s the first meeting of the season between these two clubs — and if the trends continue, it may not be the last time they cross paths when it really counts.

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK LINE: Astros -112, Cubs -107; over/under is 8 1/2 runs

Here's a preview of Joe Espada's Game 1 lineup.

The first thing that stands out is rookie Cam Smith is hitting cleanup, followed by Jake Meyers. Victor Caratini is the DH and is hitting sixth. Christian Walker is all the way down at seventh, followed by Yainer Diaz, and Taylor Trammell who is playing left field.

How the mighty have fallen.

Pretty wild to see Walker and Diaz hitting this low in the lineup. However, it's justified, based on performance. Walker is hitting a pathetic .214 and Diaz is slightly better sporting a .238 batting average.

  Screenshot via: MLB.com

 



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The trade deadline is right around the corner! Composite Getty Image.

If you were hoping the Houston Astros could survive their injury avalanche without reinforcements, this past week should shake that optimism. Getting swept at home by the lowly Oakland Athletics isn’t just an embarrassment, it’s a warning flare straight to GM Dana Brown’s office.

Yes, this was a wake-up call. Houston’s offense is simply too depleted to keep treading water while waiting for reinforcements. The moment Isaac Paredes went down with a hamstring injury, the offense unraveled, and the numbers back it up. In the seven days since losing their best power bat, the Astros rank 28th in runs scored, 23rd in home runs, 25th in OPS and 20th in batting average. That’s a drastic drop-off for a team that ranks second in batting average and 12th in OPS on the season.

And it’s not just Paredes’ absence. Cam Smith, one of the Astros' brightest early-season surprises, is stuck in a deep slump. Over his last seven games, he’s hitting .087. Stretch that to 15 games, and he’s at .140 with a .175 slugging percentage. That's not a cold streak — that’s a free fall. Perhaps giving him a regular spot in the batting order might provide more stability for the rookie.

Help is on the way!

So is there any hope left? In theory, yes. The pitching cavalry is on the way. Spencer Arrighetti has one more rehab start before returning. Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia are expected to follow soon after. JP France isn’t far off either. On paper, that could give Houston the rotation depth needed for another deep October push.

But theory only takes you so far. Injuries continue to mount. Just days after praising the rotation’s resilience, Brendan Rodgers showed up with elbow inflammation and Lance McCullers Jr. landed on the IL with blister issues. If the reinforcements don’t all arrive — and perform — without setbacks, the Astros could be in real trouble.

Yordan Alvarez’s situation adds another layer of anxiety. Dana Brown might be tempted to rush him back at less than full strength, and while 75% of Yordan may still be better than some of the current options, it’s a risky bet. One wrong step could lead to a setback that erases any hope of getting him at all when it matters most.

So no, Brown can’t afford to sit on his hands at the deadline. In fact, this may be the most pivotal deadline of his tenure. With Framber Valdez likely in his final stretch in Houston and the rotation still featuring two frontline arms, the window is now.

Whether or not Brown is allowed to spend aggressively could ultimately depend on Jim Crane’s willingness to cross the luxury tax line. If he greenlights an aggressive push, the Astros have enough upside, even with the injuries, to go for it. But a quiet deadline may signal that the front office sees this team as a year away.

Bottom line: if the Astros truly believe they can get Yordan and several arms back in time for a playoff push, now is the moment to act. Because after a weekend like this, it’s clear the current version of the roster isn’t enough. We'll get our answer by Thursday's deadline.

There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!

The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional LIVE episode this Thursday!

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