LET'S MAKE A DEAL
3 big reasons why winning a James Harden trade is all about timing for Rockets
Dec 21, 2020, 2:31 pm
LET'S MAKE A DEAL
As leaks begin to intensify through the media, it's become pretty clear: the Houston Rockets are preparing to trade James Harden. Many have speculated that perhaps Houston was hedging their bets this summer with Harden, but it's hard to overlook these core facts:
1) Prior to demanding a trade, James Harden turned down a contract extension for the first time since being in Houston.
2) The Rockets spent the bulk of their offseason acquiring young talent and first round draft picks.
3) Every long-term contract Houston inked this summer was with players 25 years or under.
4) The kind of offer Houston was looking for in return for James Harden was leaked through the media (blue chip prospect and multiple first round draft picks).
They may not advertise it, but Houston has effectively made it clear that they intend to move on from Harden "sooner rather than later", per Adrian Wojnarowski. This piece isn't to deny what Houston is bound to do, but rather explain why it may be a mistake to rush into a deal.
1. James Harden is one of the greatest basketball players of all time
This one is self-explanatory, but Harden is already one of the 30 greatest basketball players of all time, and he has two years left on his contract. Yes, it may be very difficult to repair the relationship and it's only been done a couple times in modern NBA history, but it's not unprecedented. If Houston has even a two percent chance of retaining him, it's the same principle of chasing that type of talent - it would be malpractice to not go for it.
A lot of what's being said in the media about James Harden not being that attractive of an asset is posturing. If you don't believe me, go look up how poorly some articles have aged the last time players of this caliber were on the market. The best assets (Ben Simmons, Tyler Herro, Jaylen Brown, etc...) will still be on the table a year from now because these general managers aren't stupid; they understand how rare a talent like Harden is. It will not hurt the Rockets much if they choose to see how things develop.
It's possible that teams pay a little more now than later due to losing time on Harden's contract, but it's unlikely that a team interested in his services would be bold enough to take their best assets off the table. Teams interested in Harden are trying to maximize their title window - that will still be the case at the trade deadline. Think of it this way: If the price of trying to keep Harden is losing out on a first round pick from a team's best offer, is it worth waiting?
Of course it is. It's James Harden.
2. The Rockets could still be very good this season
A lot of my skepticism on Houston entering the season was based on the amount of gambles they took this offseason. From John Wall to David Nwaba, the Rockets went with the "high risk, high reward" model up and down the roster. When you compound those odds, it was unlikely that enough bets were going to pay off for Houston to remain a very good team.
However, if you've followed the Rockets' early returns from the preseason, it's become clear that a lot of their bets are paying off. Christian Wood looked like a stud in the 23 minutes of preseason action he played. John Wall looks healthy and engaged defensively. DeMarcus Cousins seems to have reinvigorated his career with three-point shooting. Even Eric Gordon looks poised for a bounce-back season.
Much like the 2016 offseason, a lot of Houston's roster bets are paying off. Trading James Harden before you've gotten time to properly evaluate the team you have could be a mistake. The realistic worst case scenario is Houston isn't very good and they can still deal Harden at the trade deadline. Perhaps you lose out on a minor asset here or there, but the teams seriously interested will put their best chips on the table because they're chasing a championship.
What if 20 games in, Houston has one of the best records in the Western Conference? You may not be able to convince James Harden to stay long-term, but passing up on a year of title contention to pivot to a rebuild is the greatest sin in professional sports.
3. The offers are more likely to get better, not worse
If you wanted to construct the best argument for patience, this is it. Every NBA team is going into the season with zero losses and is excited for what lies ahead. Some of these teams may be interested in Harden, but want to see what they have first before making a major decision like that. At the trade deadline, these teams may recognize that they aren't good enough to win a title and decide to throw in their best and final offer.
This is why you wait.
Unless there's a godfather offer on the table, Houston doesn't have incentive to rush into a trade when Harden has two years remaining on his deal. What if the season starts and a team like Denver falls behind the pack in the Western Conference? Do they come to Houston with their best package?
What if Philadelphia realizes that their problems last season extended beyond floor spacing? Will Daryl Morey stop posturing and include Ben Simmons in his best offer? You can continue this exercise with several different teams, but the point stands - more teams will become aggressive if you wait.
When more teams become aggressive, a bidding war emerges. When a bidding war emerges, Houston will have more leverage than they have right now. Currently, the Rockets have four opportunities to trade Harden:
1. Right now
2. At this year's trade deadline
3. Next summer
4. At next year's trade deadline
There is no need to rush this. Contrary to what pundits are saying right now, Houston has significant leverage and that will remain the case for a while. They have an all-time player with two years remaining on his contract. It's all a matter of how uncomfortable they're willing to get.
If you're going to rebuild, you're going to rebuild. There is no "best time" to do that. A third of the league is in a constant state of rebuild. Ripping the Band-Aid off may seem like an attractive option, but it's monumentally important that the Rockets get this trade right. A lost season is a lost season. Ask San Antonio about the long-term ramifications of screwing up a trade like this.
Sunday night matchups don't get much exciting than this, as the Houston Texans host the Detroit Lions in prime-time at NRG.
The Lions come into this game on a six-game winning streak looking every bit of the best team in football. Houston on the other hand has lost two of their last three games with a struggling offense unable to protect their quarterback.
CJ Stroud has only one passing touchdown over this span, and is clearly having trouble adjusting to life without Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins.
If Houston is going to come away with an upset victory, they will need big performances from Tank Dell and Joe Mixon. After catching 4 passes against the Colts two weeks ago, Mixon not only failed to catch a single pass against the Jets, but he wasn't even targeted.
Considering the Texans' offensive line issues, choosing not to use Mixon as a pass catcher is hard to fathom. Especially since he and Dell are the team's top 2 playmakers.
What's working in the Texans' favor?
They play this game at home, where they are undefeated this season. A lot of the team's protection issues have popped up on the road, so communication should be easier for the offense on their home turf.
Bulls on Parade
We have good news and bad news about the defense this week. On the positive side, Azeez Al-Shaair and Jimmy Ward have returned to practice. If they're able to contribute on Sunday night, that would give the defense a lift.
And now for the bad news. Will Anderson has yet to practice this week after rolling his ankle in the Jets game. If he is unable to practice on Friday, it's hard to imagine he'll be active against Detroit.
X-factors
The Texans have to show some improvement on the offensive line this week.
Houston must lean on Joe Mixon again, as Nico Collins isn't expected to play.
Lions' Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the best receivers in the league, and he does most of his damage from the slot. If the Texans continue to deploy Jalen Pitre against premier receivers in man coverage, St. Brown is going to light up the scoreboard.
What would a win over the Lions mean to Houston?
The Texans are no longer considered a true championship contender because of their losses to the Packers, Vikings, and Jets. In fact, the Bills are the only team with a winning record that the Texans have beaten.
An upset win over the streaking Lions would change that narrative.
What does Vegas think?
The Lions are currently favored by 3.5 and the total is set at 49 points.
Don't miss the full preview of Texans-Lions in the video above!
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