LET'S MAKE A DEAL

3 big reasons why winning a James Harden trade is all about timing for Rockets

Rockets James Harden, Ben Simmons, Tyler Herro
Sometimes the best move is to wait. Composite photo by Jack Brame

As leaks begin to intensify through the media, it's become pretty clear: the Houston Rockets are preparing to trade James Harden. Many have speculated that perhaps Houston was hedging their bets this summer with Harden, but it's hard to overlook these core facts:

1) Prior to demanding a trade, James Harden turned down a contract extension for the first time since being in Houston.
2) The Rockets spent the bulk of their offseason acquiring young talent and first round draft picks.
3) Every long-term contract Houston inked this summer was with players 25 years or under.
4) The kind of offer Houston was looking for in return for James Harden was leaked through the media (blue chip prospect and multiple first round draft picks).

They may not advertise it, but Houston has effectively made it clear that they intend to move on from Harden "sooner rather than later", per Adrian Wojnarowski. This piece isn't to deny what Houston is bound to do, but rather explain why it may be a mistake to rush into a deal.

1. James Harden is one of the greatest basketball players of all time

This one is self-explanatory, but Harden is already one of the 30 greatest basketball players of all time, and he has two years left on his contract. Yes, it may be very difficult to repair the relationship and it's only been done a couple times in modern NBA history, but it's not unprecedented. If Houston has even a two percent chance of retaining him, it's the same principle of chasing that type of talent - it would be malpractice to not go for it.

A lot of what's being said in the media about James Harden not being that attractive of an asset is posturing. If you don't believe me, go look up how poorly some articles have aged the last time players of this caliber were on the market. The best assets (Ben Simmons, Tyler Herro, Jaylen Brown, etc...) will still be on the table a year from now because these general managers aren't stupid; they understand how rare a talent like Harden is. It will not hurt the Rockets much if they choose to see how things develop.

It's possible that teams pay a little more now than later due to losing time on Harden's contract, but it's unlikely that a team interested in his services would be bold enough to take their best assets off the table. Teams interested in Harden are trying to maximize their title window - that will still be the case at the trade deadline. Think of it this way: If the price of trying to keep Harden is losing out on a first round pick from a team's best offer, is it worth waiting?

Of course it is. It's James Harden.

2. The Rockets could still be very good this season

A lot of my skepticism on Houston entering the season was based on the amount of gambles they took this offseason. From John Wall to David Nwaba, the Rockets went with the "high risk, high reward" model up and down the roster. When you compound those odds, it was unlikely that enough bets were going to pay off for Houston to remain a very good team.

However, if you've followed the Rockets' early returns from the preseason, it's become clear that a lot of their bets are paying off. Christian Wood looked like a stud in the 23 minutes of preseason action he played. John Wall looks healthy and engaged defensively. DeMarcus Cousins seems to have reinvigorated his career with three-point shooting. Even Eric Gordon looks poised for a bounce-back season.

Much like the 2016 offseason, a lot of Houston's roster bets are paying off. Trading James Harden before you've gotten time to properly evaluate the team you have could be a mistake. The realistic worst case scenario is Houston isn't very good and they can still deal Harden at the trade deadline. Perhaps you lose out on a minor asset here or there, but the teams seriously interested will put their best chips on the table because they're chasing a championship.

What if 20 games in, Houston has one of the best records in the Western Conference? You may not be able to convince James Harden to stay long-term, but passing up on a year of title contention to pivot to a rebuild is the greatest sin in professional sports.

3. The offers are more likely to get better, not worse

If you wanted to construct the best argument for patience, this is it. Every NBA team is going into the season with zero losses and is excited for what lies ahead. Some of these teams may be interested in Harden, but want to see what they have first before making a major decision like that. At the trade deadline, these teams may recognize that they aren't good enough to win a title and decide to throw in their best and final offer.

This is why you wait.

Unless there's a godfather offer on the table, Houston doesn't have incentive to rush into a trade when Harden has two years remaining on his deal. What if the season starts and a team like Denver falls behind the pack in the Western Conference? Do they come to Houston with their best package?

What if Philadelphia realizes that their problems last season extended beyond floor spacing? Will Daryl Morey stop posturing and include Ben Simmons in his best offer? You can continue this exercise with several different teams, but the point stands - more teams will become aggressive if you wait.

When more teams become aggressive, a bidding war emerges. When a bidding war emerges, Houston will have more leverage than they have right now. Currently, the Rockets have four opportunities to trade Harden:

1. Right now
2. At this year's trade deadline
3. Next summer
4. At next year's trade deadline

There is no need to rush this. Contrary to what pundits are saying right now, Houston has significant leverage and that will remain the case for a while. They have an all-time player with two years remaining on his contract. It's all a matter of how uncomfortable they're willing to get.

If you're going to rebuild, you're going to rebuild. There is no "best time" to do that. A third of the league is in a constant state of rebuild. Ripping the Band-Aid off may seem like an attractive option, but it's monumentally important that the Rockets get this trade right. A lost season is a lost season. Ask San Antonio about the long-term ramifications of screwing up a trade like this.

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The competition level is about to rise. Composite Getty Image.

The Astros closed out their latest road trip with a winning record, a feat made more impressive considering the turbulence at the back of the rotation. Brandon Walter and Ryan Gusto both endured rough outings, with Walter in particular getting tagged hard. Still, Houston salvaged the finale, thanks largely to Mauricio Dubón’s breakout performance. The utilityman launched two home runs to power an offense that’s quietly been heating up for weeks.

But even with a solid finish, not everything is trending upward.

Josh Hader, who’s been one of the game’s most reliable closers this season, has begun to show signs of vulnerability. He’s allowed a home run in three of his last six outings. While his overall numbers remain strong, the long ball—a problem that plagued him last year—is starting to creep back into the picture.

As the Astros return home, the schedule offers no breather. They’ll face the Phillies and Cubs before a brief trip to Colorado to take on the struggling Rockies. After that comes a marquee series against the defending champion Dodgers in Los Angeles. With three of their next four opponents being legitimate World Series threats, the coming stretch looms large.

Can the bats keep pace?

If the last month is any indication, the Astros have reason to feel optimistic. Christian Walker has started to show signs of life after a quiet start to the season, hitting .260 with a .762 OPS and five home runs over the past 30 days. José Altuve has been scorching with a .302 average and .901 OPS in that span, while Jeremy Peña has taken things to another level, batting .384 with a 1.009 OPS.

As a team, the Astros rank 7th in OPS, 5th in runs, 3rd in batting average, and 7th in home runs over the last 30 days. It’s a surge that’s come at the right time—and one they’ll need to sustain.

The injury picture is also starting to shift in Houston’s favor.

Joe Espada told The Athletic's Chandler Rome that Christian Javier recently threw a live batting practice session, touching 95 mph as he continues his return from Tommy John surgery. JP France has thrown multiple live BPs and could be ready to help if things continue to progress with his shoulder. Luis Garcia, however, remains further away despite undergoing surgery more than two years ago. He's expected to throw a live BP this week.

Spencer Arrighetti (thumb) should be able to return in August, and Lance McCullers has resumed throwing and is currently on the 15-day IL with a foot sprain.

The Astros are winning. The offense is rolling. The reinforcements are on the way. But with a brutal stretch looming, the team’s margin for error is about to be put to the test.

There's so much more to cover! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!

The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.

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